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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

foale - 02 Nov 2006 08:18 - 6618 of 11056

Small long again...from 1.9039 very tight stop

If we are going to rally this is a reasonably good entry level for today.

If this gets stopped will probably open a short..

bakko - 02 Nov 2006 10:19 - 6619 of 11056

Nicely done foale.

It was bang on my 1hr rising support line where you went long.

Should have listened to my chart :-(

Harlosh - 02 Nov 2006 15:16 - 6620 of 11056

Thanks Bakko

foale - 02 Nov 2006 16:06 - 6621 of 11056

well flat now for + 45 pips...
I was looking for follow through from this ams lows.

But its being sold off everytime its passes over 1.9100

I suspect I will be long over 1.9150 and short under 1.9000
Not going to play the inbetween game... :)

foale - 02 Nov 2006 16:45 - 6622 of 11056

US labour productivity slowed to a standstill in the three months to the end of September, the latest indication that the American economy is slowing.
With analysts expecting productivity to grow 1.1% in the third quarter, the zero figure from the Labor Department came as a surprise.

Unit labour costs were up 5.3% from the same period in 2005, the worst annual rise in 24 years.

The figures will increase inflation fears at the US Federal Reserve.

hilary - 02 Nov 2006 17:44 - 6623 of 11056

This is what I'm looking at.

4-hour



1-hour

foale - 02 Nov 2006 17:45 - 6624 of 11056

Hils thanks for posting that I will have a good study...

Melnibone - 02 Nov 2006 19:09 - 6625 of 11056

Below are 3 of the charts from my nightly PDF e-mail to my daughter.
Just shows what I'm looking at and why. (Cable / Gold / Bonds).
I believe that unless you are doing purely technical trading, then you need
to monitor all 3 to trade Dollar crosses. And as folk seem to rightly follow
economic data on here, for their Swing Trades, it may be of interest to you.
(Or not, as the case may be) ;-)

foale - 02 Nov 2006 20:12 - 6626 of 11056

Hilary. what is that line on the 4 hour chart the crossover one in the bottom box

hilary - 02 Nov 2006 20:33 - 6627 of 11056

That line's called the Choccie Crock of macd Gold which is often found at the end of a rainbow, D.

:o)

Mel,

Interesting points although I would also argue that Gold and T-Bonds only look at things from the Dollar perspective.

When it comes to FX, I believe that you also need to look at what's happening on the other side of the pair. For instance, when the Europeans counted the string of infamous non votes last year, German Eurobonds were trading at a premium to the equivalent other Eurobonds (eg Italian or French) which was an indication that the market thought that the whole Euro concept was fundamentally flawed.

Then people were selling the Euro rather than specifically buying the Dollar. Similar things happen from time to time with the Yen.

Melnibone - 02 Nov 2006 20:46 - 6628 of 11056

Agreed, Hilary. Country specific data will affect that Country's Currency and Bonds,
and cause a re-basing of that currency/ dollar cross to a new level
within the spectrum of the Dollar crosses.

Very complicated this Forex lark, innit. :-))

Melnibone - 02 Nov 2006 21:00 - 6629 of 11056

I think this illustrates your point. An overlay of GBP/Dollar and Euro/ Dollar

chocolat - 02 Nov 2006 23:36 - 6630 of 11056

Oh I like it Hils - that's Choccie Crock for short :o)

And Mels - will you be renewing your weekend musings over the, err ... weekend?
That would be nice.


Looking for a bounce from the 1.8950ish area if it trounces 1.90.
Still going the long way round ;)

MightyMicro - 03 Nov 2006 01:09 - 6631 of 11056

Hil: I'm interested in your views on the cohesion of the Euro. You say that the market thinks that the whole thing is fundamentally flawed: while I don't disagree with that (and I'm one of those that fervently wanted to keep the UK out of it), I did wonder at your earlier post when you thought that it might actually fall apart.

Do you really believe that the EU would allow that to happen, even given the economic nonsense that the whole thing is? In other words, why would economic nonsense stop them, it hasn't done before?

foale - 03 Nov 2006 07:05 - 6632 of 11056

Try as I mightI cant seem to get that MACD "choccie crock" to read similar to you guys..any help would be appreciated.

Seymour Clearly - 03 Nov 2006 07:58 - 6633 of 11056

Foale, I get something similar onmy 4hr chart using the standard settings of 19 39 9

Seymour Clearly - 03 Nov 2006 09:15 - 6634 of 11056

Got a limit sell in for 1.9105,will see if it gets triggered.

chocolat - 03 Nov 2006 09:41 - 6635 of 11056

SC - it's not a standard setting, it's one that works :o)

Seymour Clearly - 03 Nov 2006 11:36 - 6636 of 11056

My apologies Choccy, you've got to remember I'm a bloke so trading is a mystery to me.

;-))

Anyway, now short, will put a stop at b/e.

hilary - 03 Nov 2006 12:22 - 6637 of 11056

MM,

I believe that the integration of all the new eastern members will cause a big problem. They're only there for the subsidies and grants that they'll get. Let's face it, the Turks might make tasty kebabs but they'll contribute fcuk all to the Eurozone economy in any other way. It won't take long for the Germans to get hacked off with having to subsidise all the hangers on.

I think it quite conceivable that a few years out you could find that the Germans feel too encumbered by the one size fits all ideal and, whilst I doubt that they'll return to the Mark, they could easily free float their own Euro.
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