The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

FTSE currently ay 6565, DOW at 13326, Nikkei at 17553.
Although the highs are now being pushed to new limits, many brokers admit that the FTSE over 6600 would be too high to be sustainable. It looks like we may reach that though, but with a possible big market correction afterwards.
Interestingly, a letter in the last Shares Mag is quoted as predicting "a stock market crash before the end of July". Crash is probably just a euphemism for correction, but I am certainly looking to put more of my money in to defensive stocks over the summer, or taking money out altogether, ready to buy back in when the correction has happened. Naturally, this is only a worry to conventional traders; spread betters won't mind either way. Of course, that could be the answer: open a spread betting account!

Other things on at the moment, but thinking the same way myself HC.

My money's in the bank these days. The returns aren't great but at least they're safe.

I've no idea when (or maybe even if) the market will crash, but logically it must come to an end at some point. Since nobody can pick the top or bottom of any market, it comes down to a personal choice of when it feels comfortable to invest money in assets or save the money in the bank.

I believe markets are driven by the herd. Initially people invest because they see prospects, but towards the end they only see the money, jumping on board because a share or asset keeps rising. At some point the herd turns, and the rush to preserve wealth is far faster than the slow rise to create it. You can either be part of the herd, and hope you're at the front of the queue when it turns, or you can decide to leave it, even if that means watching it disappear into the distance.

The housing market, commodity markets, and stock market have all had a very good run, and my worry is that most of this is fuelled by very large levels of borrowing, either conventional or leveraged. If like a house of cards that starts to collapse, it will I believe create a very significant correction in all these asset classes.

What will make the herd turn? Who knows. A bursting of the Chinese stock market bubble? Higher inflation as Chinese workers demand higher wages? An economic slow down in China once the Olympics are out of the way? Higher interest rates? A rise in unemployment? Recession in the US? Or maybe even a new chancellor....... It could be anything really. You certainly won't know until it happens, and you won't know for sure until months later, by then of course it's all to late.

Good luck to everyone still invested.....

All just in my opinion.....

Strawbs.

My money is on the chinese market starting the downward trend as the investing frenzy in china seems to have got out of control, but of course any unforseen terrorist attack can trigger the same thing, though ironically the market seems to quickly bounce back from such attacks.
Interesting post #10 on the "costly lesson to the wise" thread.

US has a tame inflation, so I don't think there is a cause for worry yet.

Any opinions on whether there is much further to go on this downward slide?
There are some bargains to be had out there; even the usually safe utilities have dropped a good bit.
Is this the start of 'The big one' or just another correction?

I really thought it was the start of a downturn last time, but, having bought lots in last 2 days, this will surely be the start of a Bear run... lol
no i still say correction... be happy to hear others comments...

its not before time only time will tell

i agree .... all a bit hairy-scary but for sure the trend has not been broken by a long chalk

Grim isn't it... Dow has a bad time and we catch a cold!
bad week for me losing 200ish so far..
looks as though sell in may and go away is catching up with us..see us getting down to the 6200-6300 range

200ish!?

pmsl. Sounds like quite a good week to me!

the underlying fear driving the markets lower, is that inflation and therefore interest rates are likely to move rather higher in the short/medium term, rather than lower as was the expectation just a few weeks ago

Is the DOW likely to be down again this afternoon? The spreadbetters will presumably have a fair idea of the answer to this?
If we are heading up again, I might have a nibble at NWG or some other.

Assuming it is a correction, that'll be the 3rd in about 18 months, and the second in 4 months. There must come a point where the "risk/reward" premium no longer favours equities, especially if the frequency of these corrections increases. I've no doubt the major investment houses have some kind of formula that dictate how they shift money around, which may have kicked in with the recent movements in the bond market. I think market tops are often proceeded by lots of corrections and bounces, as money switches in and out of the market as the "risk/reward" profiles switch between different asset classes. At some point one class will win out though and that's when the market swings decisivley. Personally I'm happy to stay in cash.

Strawbs.

indications are currently -22 on Dow, which is really neither here nor there .... however, my advise would be to do nothing at all

I think you are probably right, cynic. I will wait for next week.
SBT shot from 53p to 60p this morning, so am now sitting on some cash which needs to be working!
Glass half full & looking for a top up.

have only changed my mind set recently from trading these small speculative stocks, which have lost me a small fortune in the past, to buying (quality) growth stocks, be ironic now if i take a battering by buying as the market starts a vicious downtrend... and before realisation sets in... lol

Ted,

Are your new stocks making money, flat or losing money? Just curious if you currently feel the stock market is a better place to make money than say 5.5% in a bank account somewhere.

Strawbs.

I remember buying TAN in the last correction, @90p, and selling again with the jitters at the same price, if this is a correction and it was only 3/4 months ago we had the last, look at the growth, i know TAN is generally an exception to the rule, as a very strong performer, but 70/75% growth in sp in 4 months, surely certain elements of the market are heading for meltdown...?

I would say TAN is a bit of an exception. I also made quite a bit on that before selling in the last correction, having bought when tipped in IC. Of course if I'd held until today, I'd have made a lot more. Taking the rest of my portfolio though the percentage increase wasn't a great deal better than money in the bank, and that's with the added risk. In the preceeding years though, my overall returns where way ahead of money in the bank. That's what made my mind up to switch to cash really. In a very bullish market most can pick winners, but in a flat to bearish market, it's a lot more difficult to pick enough of the right ones......

Strawbs.