Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Below are 3 of the charts from my nightly PDF e-mail to my daughter.
Just shows what I'm looking at and why. (Cable / Gold / Bonds).
I believe that unless you are doing purely technical trading, then you need
to monitor all 3 to trade Dollar crosses. And as folk seem to rightly follow
economic data on here, for their Swing Trades, it may be of interest to you.
(Or not, as the case may be) ;-)

Hilary. what is that line on the 4 hour chart the crossover one in the bottom box

That line's called the Choccie Crock of macd Gold which is often found at the end of a rainbow, D.

:o)

Mel,

Interesting points although I would also argue that Gold and T-Bonds only look at things from the Dollar perspective.

When it comes to FX, I believe that you also need to look at what's happening on the other side of the pair. For instance, when the Europeans counted the string of infamous non votes last year, German Eurobonds were trading at a premium to the equivalent other Eurobonds (eg Italian or French) which was an indication that the market thought that the whole Euro concept was fundamentally flawed.

Then people were selling the Euro rather than specifically buying the Dollar. Similar things happen from time to time with the Yen.

Agreed, Hilary. Country specific data will affect that Country's Currency and Bonds,
and cause a re-basing of that currency/ dollar cross to a new level
within the spectrum of the Dollar crosses.

Very complicated this Forex lark, innit. :-))

I think this illustrates your point. An overlay of GBP/Dollar and Euro/ Dollar

Oh I like it Hils - that's Choccie Crock for short :o)

And Mels - will you be renewing your weekend musings over the, err ... weekend?
That would be nice.


Looking for a bounce from the 1.8950ish area if it trounces 1.90.
Still going the long way round ;)

Hil: I'm interested in your views on the cohesion of the Euro. You say that the market thinks that the whole thing is fundamentally flawed: while I don't disagree with that (and I'm one of those that fervently wanted to keep the UK out of it), I did wonder at your earlier post when you thought that it might actually fall apart.

Do you really believe that the EU would allow that to happen, even given the economic nonsense that the whole thing is? In other words, why would economic nonsense stop them, it hasn't done before?

Try as I mightI cant seem to get that MACD "choccie crock" to read similar to you guys..any help would be appreciated.

Foale, I get something similar onmy 4hr chart using the standard settings of 19 39 9

Got a limit sell in for 1.9105,will see if it gets triggered.

SC - it's not a standard setting, it's one that works :o)

My apologies Choccy, you've got to remember I'm a bloke so trading is a mystery to me.

;-))

Anyway, now short, will put a stop at b/e.

MM,

I believe that the integration of all the new eastern members will cause a big problem. They're only there for the subsidies and grants that they'll get. Let's face it, the Turks might make tasty kebabs but they'll contribute fcuk all to the Eurozone economy in any other way. It won't take long for the Germans to get hacked off with having to subsidise all the hangers on.

I think it quite conceivable that a few years out you could find that the Germans feel too encumbered by the one size fits all ideal and, whilst I doubt that they'll return to the Mark, they could easily free float their own Euro.

[12:45 US ECON: Performance of Nonfarm Payroll Estimates] Boston, November 3.
The band of economists estimates on nonfarm payrolls has consistently fallen
over the past 11 months, marked by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
Economists seemed reluctant to go below 100k for October, however, and that
range bottom is the same as in September. IFR's estimate (145k) marks the top
of this month's survey range. Without IFR, the median is 130k and the top is
140k.
The range for October has tightened to just 45k separating the high and low,
the tightest range since April (also 45k). In the 15-year history of IFR
surveys, the range has been below that only once, when in June of 2002, the
market expected May payrolls to rise between 50k and 70k. The result was a 41k
increase. From 2002 on, when the IFR survey range is 100k or less, the market
has overestimated actual payrolls 82% of the time and the print has averaged 55k
below the median.
In the last 12 months, the median has overstated actual (as reported) job
growth two thirds of the time. The average miss when the consensus was greater
than the actual was 66k. On the four occasions in the last 12 months when the
actual was greater than consensus, the average miss was only 14k. The absolute
value of all misses in the past year is 49k.
Since 1991, the market has overestimated October payroll growth 53% of the
time and by an average 56k. When the market has underestimated, the average miss
was also 56k. This includes a 177k surprise in the October 2004 payrolls report
when the result (337k) more than twice outstripped the median (160k).
Using the (final) implied market forecast from the CME economic derivatives
auctions, the average miss so far this year is 33k and no more than 87k in
either direction. Using IFR s survey median, the average departure is 36k and
no more than 98k above or below the actual. Meanwhile using IFR s in-house
estimate, the average difference from as-reported job growth is 27k with no more
than a 75k miss.

Wow :))

What time are the NFP's out, Choccie?

:o)

Hmm, closed my short out before the figures so I didn't get stopped out....

Silly me.

edit - that's twice this week I've got the direction, but failed to capitalise on it.

If you made on it, that's great SC - you'd have been stopped out with your stop at entry wouldn't you? So well done you :)

The initial head fake was a bit alarming though.

:o)

True Choccy. I pulled the stop before the figures. Anyway now short again. Will leave a wide stop this time :-0