The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

107606 - Yes also saw the news, had it on my stockwatch since yesterday, a possible stock for some PET profits will keep watch for the moment as all funds are tied up in PET.

Tokyo

Have gone balls out on this one too, Tokyo. Light trading today, guess people are now holding their breath and waiting for an RNS. This is on that many many will reap rewards from.

All mine is in PET too so no new ones for a bit at least!

Don't think I've ever seen this sp sit still for so long.It's almost more unnerving than the usual rollercoaster!

Don't think I've ever seen this sp sit still for so long.It's almost more unnerving than the usual rollercoaster!

You know when a rocket ignites its engines and sits still on the launch pad for a few seconds before shooting off into the heavens, well I guess this is bit like that...

Edging up this afternoon, is that the MM's i wonder, doesnt seem to be that much activity to warrant the few clicks?

probably a delayed buy

Of course these negotiations are falling during the Muslim 'Ramadan' period (I think that is the correct spelling...apologies if wrong), which could have some impact on negotiating times, and therefore when announcements might take place? Just a thought.

Although it is correct to say Ramadam is being observed this month it should not affect business, in fact as its a fasting time Sun up to Sun down there will be little need for lunch break! However I sure those observing Ramadam will insist, with their usual hospitality, that non fasters should take lunch.
Negotiations will cease at Sun down that falls about now 16-1700 hrs uk time. The guests will then be expected to break fast as a party. So if they have reached any signable agreement RNS will not carry it until 0730 UK, Petrels normal time to release, just in time for our breakfast!!
Failing any news' we can expect another day like today, feeling a lot like an expectant Father in the maturity suite, nervous and worried but with the confidence that the hard work had been done at conception leaving only the logistics to be arranged.
Good Luck to ALL

Thank you scottie7...I enjoyed your comparison of the 'tension' currently being experienced by all those LONG of the stock!!

Small discussions have been started on whether we would want a cash contract or risk sharing one, not really much point in discussing this as I'm sure PET will get the cash contract at first due to legal constraints, although a speculative date of when it/they could be turned into a risk sharing agreement would go along way to boosting the SP. Also lets face it if it means more oil and profit sharing the Japanese Trading house (still not released who this is yet, but as an educated guess I would say it is "Mitsubishi Trading", as they deal alot in oil and are easily large enough to provide that kind of funding, and alot more if neccesary), I'm sure they will up the funding to cover a risk sharing agreement as it is in all parties interest to do so. Anyway all the news will be released soon in an RNS (fingers and everything else crossed) My guess for the RNS is Friday or Monday, until then in the words of DH himself "KEEP THE FAITH!"

Tokyo

It will be most interesting to see if anything starts leaking out, will be keeping a keen eye on the Buy/Sell movement over these few expectant days ahead!

Morning all,(afternoon Tokyo,how you doing ?)

Just a thought,with this meeting going on in Amman,some of the talks must be about Block 6 because they have a JV with jordan, and the samples they are analysing have been taken from the Jordanian side (because of the danger in the western desert).Also some of the Iraqi`s who were in Ireland were on the geological side of things, so not only are they discussing the contracts, but sorting the rights to Block 6.In the annual report PET said they were planning to drill a 5000m or ft. well when safe.
so to me it`s looking better and better.
all IMO.
regards,
Dexter

Morning Dexter (although you are correct 4.50pm here) Doing well thanks, but the excitment of PET is killing me, I reckon and am hoping for an RNS by Monday, although anytime before that will do just fine!!!

Yesterdays post on another BB about the Market Makers is very relevant to this mornings activities, be interesting to see what other tactics they pull out to try and get our shares before the RNS is released, although if the MM's are reading this I have a sure fire way, just put the bid up to 4-5 pounds and you'll scare some out of ME!

here is the post made interesting reading

Tokyo

MARKET MAKER SPEAKS OUT: Ways of a Market Maker

I was an OTC MM for about 10 years ending in the late 80's. Since then I have been strictly an investor. Since I have not been that up to date in MM rules I will only make statements that I feel fairly confident are still accurate regarding these activities. By and large most MM don't have a clue nor do they care to learn, about the fundamentals of the stocks they trade.

They just try to make orderly markets. When dealing with BB stocks it is very easy for a MM to get trapped into being short in dealing in a fast moving market. Reason being; most of the MM's in this stock are what are called "wholesalers" this means they don't have retail brokers "working" the stocks.

So they have to rely on what's known as the "call" from larger retail houses. If a "Big" retail firm like an E-trade calls up a market maker to purchase say 5,000 shares of a stock, they expect to get an "execution" from that market maker. If he turns them down, or only gives a partial then the "Big" firm will go to another MM.

If this second MM "fills the order" then that "Big" firm has a moral obligation to continue to give future "business" in that stock to that MM who performed (his life blood). This will go on until he "fails" to perform and so on.

Contrary to popular opinion the "Big" firms Do NOT neccessarily go to the "Low Offer" to fill a buy order (Or high bid for a sell). They "Go" to who they think will perform to fill the order and expect that MM to "match" the "low offer" in the case of a buy (bid in the case of a sell). Even though this MM might in fact be the "high bid" and not really want to sell any more.

As a wholesaler he must perform or he will get a reputation as a "non-performer" with the "Big" houses and will cease getting "calls" which means he will soon go out of business. I mentioned above that this activity is very significant to BB stocks. I say this because most of the trades in these BB stocks are "unsolicited" and are done through discount houses.

With the above groundwork laid, let me try to explain how market makers get short even if they like the Company; Lets say that a stock (shell) has been lying quietly at $.25 bid $.50 offered. A limit order comes into one of the MM's to Buy at $.50 for a thousand shares. Prior to this trade that MM may be "flat" (neither long or short any shares). He fills the order and is now short 1,000 shares. He may raise his bid hoping to find a seller to "flatten" out his position. But before he realizes it a wave of buyers have come in and cleared out all the $.50 offers. Now the stock is $.50 bid .75 offered. Here comes that "Big" firm he just sold the 1,000 shares to at .50 with another bid for 1000 at .75. He makes this print. Now he is short 2,000 at an average of .625. The market keeps moving and now its .75 bid 1.00 offered. Now he has to make a decision.

Just like investors, MM Hate to take a loss. So 9 times out of 10 he will now sell 2000 at 1.00 making him short 4000 but with an average .81. At this time he would love to see a seller at .75 so he can cover his short and make a few bucks.

But instead the market keeps moving up. Now it is 1.00 to 1.25 and here comes the buyer again at 1.25. He doesn't want to lose the call so now he needs to sell 4,000 at 1.25 to keep his break even point above the bid. Now he is short 8,000. Market moves up to 1.25 bid 1.50 offer here comes the buyer now he feels he must sell 8000 here because "stocks don't go up forever".

Now he is short 16,000. And so on and so on. If the stock keeps moving up, before he realizes it he could be short 50k or 100k shares (depending how big his bank is).

Finally the market closes for the day and on paper he may look all right in that his "break even" price may be around the closing price. But now he has to figure out how to entice sellers so he can cover this short. It is important to note that if this happened to one MM it has probably happened to most all of them.

Some ways MM's entice sellers; Run the stock up with a "tight spread" in a fast market, then "open" up the spread to slow down the buying interest. After it has "cooled off" for a little while lower the offer below the last trade right after a small piece trades on the offer then tighten the spread so that the sellers feel they can take a "quick profit" by "hitting the bid" on the tight spread.

Once the selling starts the MM's will walk it down quickly by only making small prints on the way down with the tight spread. Another way is by running the stock up in the morning, averaging up their short then use the above technique to walk it down in the afternoon.

Hopefully after doing this for several days, it will demoralize the buyers. The volume will dry up and the sellers will materialize thinking that the game is over.

Contrary to popular opinion, MM usually Do Not Cover in Fast moving markets either Up or Down if they are short. They Short More. They usually try to cover after the frenzy is out of the market. There are many other techniques they use but the above are the most popular.

This technique works about 9 times out of 10 particularly in a BB market. However that is because 9 out of 10 BB stocks are BS. Remember what I said above. Most MM's don't have a clue as to the value of a Company until they get trapped. If the Company has solid fundementals and a bright future. Then the stock will do very well. And the activity that caused the situation will prove to even help the future stock activity because it created an audience."

a valuable insight, tokyo.

Many thanks

I got this back from PET,to me it means something is about to happen, otherwise why not comment on at least the point about sampling in Jordan


Roger we cannot comment.

-----Original Message-----
From: petrel@hub03.mail.esat.net [mailto:petrel@hub03.mail.esat.net] On
Behalf Of ***********@btopenworld.com
Sent: 20 October 2004 09:13
To: petrel@iol.ie; *************@btopenworld.com
Subject: Contact Petrel Resources : contract talks

Name -***************
Message :
Dear sir/madam,
I have a few points that i would like you clarify if
possible please.

1) Is it correct that you have a team in Amman at the moment?

2) If so are you still meeting with the Iraqi people that were in Dublin
the last 2 weeks ?
3) The exploration you have been doing in the western desert, is that
risk sharing with the Iraqi ministry,and do you still plan to drill a
well,as stated in your annual report ?
4) the JV that you have with the Jordanians,is that just for sam pling
or full exploration in Jordan ?
5) If you are meeting with the Iraqi people,is this for the contracts to
develope the oilfields, if so, is this still a cash contract or will it
be converted to risk sharing ?

Many thanks for your time,
regards,
*************

Wide (ish)spread and very light trading so far today. Seems we are all waiting for that info to come thru.

Certainly does feel like the end is near on this one, a few more days perhaps and most of us on this thread will be a lot richer than before.

Tokyo

Everythings crossed!