cynic
- 16 Feb 2007 10:01
- 666 of 3050
dithered a bit when it was 498/500 ..... but who cares with a decent profit to bank after a just a couple of hours.
hlyeo98
- 16 Feb 2007 10:13
- 668 of 3050
HAIK is difficult to trade at the moment
cynic
- 16 Feb 2007 10:15
- 669 of 3050
SOLA - discretion has prevailed ..... rather looks as though the stock is not well bid so have sold 50% of total holding
sportbilly1976
- 16 Feb 2007 15:07
- 671 of 3050
fantastic recovery today.....broker comments to come early next week could well see further gains too....
could certainly be looking at approx 700p soon.
cynic
- 16 Feb 2007 15:30
- 672 of 3050
no dear soul ..... pretty pleased, but am also pleased that i actually managed to maintain the discipline of taking out profit
cynic
- 16 Feb 2007 18:59
- 674 of 3050
good enough to buy a quality cashmere blanket (not that cheap chinese stuff!) to cover your knees?
hlyeo98
- 18 Feb 2007 12:29
- 675 of 3050
There are some chinese mink blanket which are far more superior to cheap cashmere in China.
PapalPower
- 18 Feb 2007 12:57
- 676 of 3050
Err....the news last week was not detailed, and was in fact a "profit warning" all snuggly wrapped up in sweet words.
I said a long time ago this was one to trade, and it has been so far.
A placing is very likely now imo, which is going to dash all those earnings forecasts somewhat. It might leave them better placed longer term, but there could be some shorter term issues now with falling margins and profits not to expectations.
Interesting times ahead.
R88AVE
- 18 Feb 2007 13:35
- 677 of 3050
Papalpower explain how it is profit warning?
Current Trading statement:
Sales $86m
Profit $22-23m
Prod increased from 14MW to 80MW (Prod to increase to 150MW)
In 3rd Quarter Results
Revenue $28.4m
Profits $8.5m
Prod. 13MW
Net Profits $7.9m
There is nothing to compare really from last full year report because there is not one avaliable. The only downside in current pretrade report :
By the end of the fourth quarter of 2006, the Company had completed the
installation of 14 wire saws which slice the ingot output of the furnaces into
wafers. This in-house capability is designed to enhance gross margins, both
through the elimination of third party costs and through the slicing of thinner
wafers, thereby increasing wafer yield per ingot. The initial operation of the
wire saws involved a learning curve for staff, which was made steeper by the
planned reduction in wafer thickness. This resulted in a higher than expected
level of wafers which did not pass ReneSola's quality control standards and
therefore required reprocessing. The Directors strongly believe that rigorous
product quality control is essential in building ReneSola's position in the
market and are pleased to report that good progress has been made in resolving
the issue.
PapalPower
- 18 Feb 2007 14:25
- 678 of 3050
PBT figures.......8.5m......lower than forecast.
This post on TMF explains it.
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10415238
fortitude18
- 18 Feb 2007 15:11
- 679 of 3050
PP,
Absolute nonsense. Ive been following this company since August and the detailed analysis on NFVDA (reversed) is as precise as is possible. Once SOLA's employees are attuned to the new sawing machines you will see a dramatic rise in earnings/wafer which will kick in Q2/07. Its output for the next 18 months is secured on long term contracts. Sales price/wafers is higher than previously expected as per contract with JA SOlar and the MW upgrades are in fact an pre-ordained profit upgrade. On an EPS of 60p for 07 and 120P for 08 the p/e will fall to single digit. Capital expend is being financed through prepayments from sales contracts to the tune of 30% on the total value of each contract, bank loan and cashflow. The Q4 earnings 'minor short fall' is in fact in line with Merrills forecasts. Raw materials are now in place for 2007 and with tolling arrangements in place with its customers you have a visibility of earnings that cannot be matched by many companies on AIM. Deloitte Touche as been appointed as auditors.
The company as only been trading since 2005 and its performance to date as been nothing short of superb. Even if the price falls back to 450-500 it won't stayn there for long. The price fell over 16% on friday. Pray tell me what was the closing price at 4.30pm. More to the point what was the price at 4.00pm? Let me tell you..It turned BLUE and closed -7 points. Profit warning? Bullshit.
In the medium term this stock will touch 10 before summer 07. With sales contract extensions to come and factory and new furnace/saws nearing completion then its a very rosy picture moving forward.
One line comments from do not measure on the richter scale of intense analysis. Very amatuerish and worthy of the bin
F18
PW Carnell
- 18 Feb 2007 16:56
- 680 of 3050
Papal power is a good contrarian indicator imo.Im remaining long in a trade and long term.Are you short papal power?
R88AVE
- 18 Feb 2007 19:09
- 681 of 3050
Papalpower
Do you have a link to a broker estimates?
How come your link does not show the whole page with other comments?
There was an interesting article by someone else before the last message you provided.
Guys use this link and read the one above the last.
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10412867&sort=whole
PapalPower
- 19 Feb 2007 00:42
- 682 of 3050
I have no position at present, if you go way back on AFN I have stated long ago when this was 130p it was going to be a great trading stock (the same was posted by me on TMF a long time ago too) and so it has been. Simple fact is, never fall in love with a share. As you'll note they need money, if this does come in a placing then its going to dilute the earnings figures. PBT forecasts were higher, so this is a profit warning as such. The additional margin generation is going to take time, don't expect it to fly in Q1 figures for 07, its not going to, therefore they may be additional PBT shortfall. Present SOLA lives on basically zero tax, the tax rate will increase from this year onwards for three years, which will cut into PAT and therefore earnings.
If you are blinded by love of a share to see the underlying events, be careful. The drop was caused by sellers, the rise back by short terms trading the bounce. This has a large PI following now, which will make it erratic and volatile, and it will remain a trading stock, for ups and downs imo.
Given that many are saying a placing is likely, and this has been a defacto profit warning with PBT lower than forecast, my next position may be short, although it also may be long, that depends on the sentiment this week :)
goldfinger
- 19 Feb 2007 02:14
- 683 of 3050
Excelent post PP.
Lets face it if any other company on the market failed to meet Broker PBT forecasts, it would be hailed as a profit warning and treated as a profit warning by the market.
Sola appears to have got off this time because of an over enthusiastic following and a bullish outlook statement.
Audited results could halt the party.
And I also believe a fund raising round is on the menu, not entirely a bad thing but it depends as to why the funds are needed.
This is an exciting and debatable stock to follow. I hope holders do well out of it.
PapalPower
- 19 Feb 2007 03:23
- 684 of 3050
Very true goldfinger, and also very true that everyone wants everyone else to make money, and as Friday showed, a quick short down paid money, as did a reversal for a long on the bounce.