Fred
You might find the following of some interest:
From:
http://europe.etf.com/europe/sections/features-a-news/9763-how-to-play-the-uk-housing-market.html?fullart=1&start=2
How To Play the UK Housing Market
By Rachael Revesz
30 April, 2014
The UK’s booming housing sector is attracting investors from far and wide, boosting the UK’s economic rally.
Phenomenal growth in London, fuelled by overseas buyers, has had a knock-on effect around the country and sent homebuilder stocks like
Barratt Developments, Bellway and Taylor Wimpey soaring last year.
However, housing is a cyclical sector, meaning it only does well when the economy is looking healthy. And according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research report published today, the UK has reported robust GDP growth of 3.1 percent over the last four quarters.
But there is no guarantee how long this will last. The Bank of England is stress testing the UK’s largest lenders to make sure they can cope with a crash in house prices, reflecting fears that the market has become overheated. According to news reports, the Prudential Regulation Authority expects a 35 percent slump in prices to be triggered once interest rates rise from their current level at 0.5 percent.
Worries about bubbles in the market – tech stocks, bonds, house prices – are nothing new, but rising prices and a consequent slump are always a possibility. The question is, how do you get sector-specific exposure while the going is good but still maintain liquidity?
Don’t confuse commercial and residential property
Unlike the U.S., Europe has a distinct lack of ETFs that track residential property or European homebuilders. Rather, European ETFs track companies like Land Securities Group and British Land that build offices and commercial centres, often in London.
Investors should not get confused by the different sectors with the four property-related ETFs on the London Stock Exchange: three from iShares which cover UK, European and developed market property, and a European real estate fund from Amundi.
The
iShares UK Property UCITS ETF physically tracks the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT index of 30 listed real estate companies and real estate investment trusts. It might not be a play on UK housing, but prices for offices and shopping centres in London are rising too and
this ETF has returned 22 percent over the past 12 months.
For ETFs that invest in global property, State Street, iShares, HSBC and db X-trackers all offer a vehicle.
Why are there no UK homebuilders ETFs?
But when it comes to tracking UK house builders, no ETFs have been launched yet for European investors. There are fewer listed property companies in the UK, compared to the U.S, and ETFs are required to be diversified.
The proportion of home owners is also quite high in the UK, explained Gordon Rose, fund analyst at Morningstar, and he questioned whether homeowners would then want to invest in a homebuilders ETF.
“It’s a small sector compared to other European markets,” he said. “Products like that are difficult to market. But as European ETFs develop and become less fragmented and more liquid, I can imagine maybe one day they will launch a homebuilder ETF.”
The
FTSE ICB Home Construction Index contains various UK-listed homebuilder names, but has few assets tracking it and no ETFs.
Investors that wish to take a view on UK housing through house builder names can still do so, using this index, according to Brandon Mitchell, who works in ETF sales and research at advisory and broker firm Peel Hunt. The list of stock in this index are quite manageable, allowing investors to create a tradable basket with a modest amount of money, he said.
Sector specific exposure
Taking a punt on a main UK equity index could be a way to get more sector specific exposure. There are a small handful of homebuilders in the FTSE 250, and the iShares FTSE 250 UCITS ETF has returned 16 percent over the last year and 0.19 percent year to date. Similarly, there are a modest nine homebuilders in the FTSE All Share, and the SPDR FTSE UK All Share UCITS ETF has delivered 12 percent over the past year.
“You could invest in one of these indices as when the economy goes up, the housing market goes up – but the problem is by investing in something like the FTSE 100, a lot of the revenue is derived from multinational companies who might not be a play on UK house prices,” said Rose. “If you really want to have pure UK investment you would have to look at small and mid-cap UK equities.”
Buyer beware - homebuilders have a nationwide focus, but it is prices in London that are rising the fastest. In fact, prices in prime central London have risen around 60 percent since pre-credit crisis, according to asset manager London Central Portfolio limited, compared to the rest of the country’s house price growth of about 7 percent over the same timeframe.
Non-ETF options
For investors wanting to consider open-ended mutual funds in property, London Central Portfolio argues that a package of government-backed tax incentives and residential property funds in central London tick “all investment boxes”. Investing in the buy-to-let domain is for the smart saver.
But open-ended funds could suspend redemptions when investors are flooding out of the fund in a downward market – as happened with New Star’s UK Property Trust – creating the so-called liquidity trap.
Not many people can afford to pay for bricks and mortar, but that doesn't mean the property market is out of bounds. Just be sure you fully understand the fund you are buying into.