Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

I thought that MM was the only horny little devil around these parts, meggers. We established that a few weeks ago.

:o)

Mel,

I've still got some thoughts re your charts that I intend to put into words. It's just a case of getting round to it. In the meantime, I don't know if you've seen this link which might help with some of your research.

Somebody once thoughtfully bought me Prechter's Elliott Wave Principle - I got about as far with that as I did with Hawking's History of Time - and very brief it was too :S We used to have stacks of Asterix books in the bathroom when the boys were little and they've appeared again by stealth. They're a great read for those inbetween data spells, bos. ;)

Most folk seem to be reading the same stuff, drawing the same conclusions, and putting on the same positions.
We can't all be right, can we?

It's not as simple as that Mels. At the end of the day (oh don't you just love cliches) the news fits the charts. We are dealing here with a highly liquid instrument and it's a given that anyone trading currency pairs must have an understanding of the fundamentals that move them. The effect can be radical depending on which side of the water the news flows. But that's it - the rest is up to us. There's an awful lot of scope in how we interpolate technical analysis. Me, I'm fairly useless with numbers and I prefer a visual picture. And don't go thinking you needn't carry on rambling on here once your daughter is through her interview :P

Well I'm radically spammed up with longs down to 1.8955.

Manufacturers are urging the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold this week despite widespread expectations in the City of a quarter-point rise to 5% - could be a fly in the oinkment ;)

And thanks, Hils. Everything's ok inasmuch as my mother has had 4 trips to the theatre in the last 10 days - 4 more than she's had in the last year ;)

Good morning from Palo Alto, California, FXers. I've just consumed some Californian Cabernet with the label "The Smoking Loon". Should I worry about a) me, b) it, c) CADUSD?

Mel, really enjoying your posts. As Choccy says, we're expecting this analysis to continue though ;-)

FWIW, my money is on UK interest rates staying unchanged on Thursday. What's the likely scenario? A UK rate rise is priced in and expected (possibly!). A 0.5% rise is unlikely given the manufacturer's pleas to leave them unchanged. So, if I were long the dollar (short cable), a 0.25% rise shouldn't have any effect, but no change would be dollar positive and so help my short position. The only fly in the rather sticky ointment is the US elections and I haven't any take on that because I don't really understand it.

Just the ramblings of an apprentice, and quite happy for this in depth analysis to be torn to pieces. Oh, and having a good day so far on cable.

Yes Dezzer :o)

well done on going against thehaerd choccie...

I have been flat most of the time..so at least never got caught out...

Not so sure where we are headed now though...

Mel,

I've been promising to comment on your observations, so here goes.

Firstly, yes I agree that there is a correlation between the USD and both gold and oil. But I would argue that the correlation is achieved more likely through the effect that minerals have on the so called commodity currencies (Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie and Rand) rather than on the USD specifically. What I'm trying to say is that if oil goes up, then you would also expect the Loonie to rise and that will more than likely result in a weakening of the USD. The USD is not specifically driven by oil though. The US is, however, a big importer of oil and there are times when oil will specifically affect the US, typically during the driving season and during the winter months when heating costs in the colder parts of the US come to the fore.

Similarly, the carry trade can and will affect bond prices. If interest rates are high in one specific country, then punters will typically borrow money in a country with low interest rates, convert it into the currency with a higher rate and invest it in fixed income securities (bonds) in that country. It's not a scenario which is unique to the USD though.

I believe, therefore, that neither bonds nor oil exclusively dictate the value of the USD.

As has been said many times on this thread, the news is merely a catalyst for price action which is already in the chart. There will be times when it is convenient to focus on oil as a currency driver, but there will be other times when it is more convenient to focus on inflation or budget deficits or the worth of the carry trade or political stability or anything whatsoever that will fit the picture.

I hope that makes sense and also hope that it might help your daughter in a small way.

Thanks for your comments guys, gender neutral :-) , and it's nice
to hear other people's views and take on stuff.

I'll have a poke about that link you gave me, Hilary, cheers.

Thanks for that, Hilary, what you say makes sence.

I had to Google what a 'Loonie' was, though, :-) ,
and it brought me to the following link which seems to
agree with what you're saying.

Link to Loonie

Well, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm finding that getting
my head around Forex trading is very challenging and stimulating.
It's like try to fit a large double-sided jigsaw together, where someone
keeps changing the picture you're trying to make.

With regards to to stock/ index trading, with Forex you still use charts
to guage concensus sentiment and identify previous levels of indecision.

Analysis of economic data still helps you formulate a view on expected
direction.

Unlike stocks, where you form a view on the stock and either Long/ Short
it, in Forex you decide which asset you wish to be exposed to and then decide
which asset you're going to borrow and sell to fund the purchase of your
chosen asset. In order to choose that particular cross, you now need to
factor in the different effect of the same data on different Countries
economies.

Fascinating. I can see why charting is said to be more useful in Forex than
it is in Stock/ Index trading.

Well Mels - hope you clicked on to the latest comment thingie up there, 'A real head shaker' - going back to last Friday morning, it sums up very nicely just how much we think we know :)

melnibone, great posting. please keep it up as i'm one of a few newbies on this thread learning about thingies and wotsits.

as for daughters twisting dads around their little fingers, i've got one at 8 months old. they figure out that dad's a soft touch at a very early age , don't they !!!

Especially for you bos :P

Something to fill your woollies

Hi, Bosley, I'm new to Forex as well. Just trying to migrate my stock/ index
methods over to a different medium.
So maybe better for you to listen to the older hands on here.
(And I mean that in trading experience, ladies, not age, before you
all gang up on me in indignation). :-)

A few folk seem to like my musings, (masochists ;-) ), so I'll post
tonight's epistle to Miss Melnibone.
Again, please remember I'm writing this to someone learning the basics.
So I'm not talking down to you.

Can you please ask F to give us a crash course in psychology then Mels? ;)

Lol!
She's too busy using it on me to get what she wants, Chocco!

Ever felt manipulated and used? :-))

Looks to me like it will be a bit whippy till they know which way the Senate's going.

Looks like Cable might be a winner....even if the Republicans arn't.

Still here, took a few off that little rise :-)

Missed most of yesterday's action after early morning as I was "chilling" with a paintbrush in my hand.

1.93 by tomorrow night? $2 by Xmas?

:o)