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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

skyhigh - 08 Jun 2007 11:34 - 671 of 1564

Grim isn't it... Dow has a bad time and we catch a cold!
bad week for me losing 200ish so far..
looks as though sell in may and go away is catching up with us..see us getting down to the 6200-6300 range

RAS - 08 Jun 2007 11:35 - 672 of 1564

200ish!?

pmsl. Sounds like quite a good week to me!

cynic - 08 Jun 2007 11:41 - 673 of 1564

the underlying fear driving the markets lower, is that inflation and therefore interest rates are likely to move rather higher in the short/medium term, rather than lower as was the expectation just a few weeks ago

HARRYCAT - 08 Jun 2007 11:48 - 674 of 1564

Is the DOW likely to be down again this afternoon? The spreadbetters will presumably have a fair idea of the answer to this?
If we are heading up again, I might have a nibble at NWG or some other.

Strawbs - 08 Jun 2007 11:51 - 675 of 1564

Assuming it is a correction, that'll be the 3rd in about 18 months, and the second in 4 months. There must come a point where the "risk/reward" premium no longer favours equities, especially if the frequency of these corrections increases. I've no doubt the major investment houses have some kind of formula that dictate how they shift money around, which may have kicked in with the recent movements in the bond market. I think market tops are often proceeded by lots of corrections and bounces, as money switches in and out of the market as the "risk/reward" profiles switch between different asset classes. At some point one class will win out though and that's when the market swings decisivley. Personally I'm happy to stay in cash.

Strawbs.

cynic - 08 Jun 2007 11:52 - 676 of 1564

indications are currently -22 on Dow, which is really neither here nor there .... however, my advise would be to do nothing at all

HARRYCAT - 08 Jun 2007 12:00 - 677 of 1564

I think you are probably right, cynic. I will wait for next week.
SBT shot from 53p to 60p this morning, so am now sitting on some cash which needs to be working!
Glass half full & looking for a top up.

Big Ted - 08 Jun 2007 12:02 - 678 of 1564

have only changed my mind set recently from trading these small speculative stocks, which have lost me a small fortune in the past, to buying (quality) growth stocks, be ironic now if i take a battering by buying as the market starts a vicious downtrend... and before realisation sets in... lol

Strawbs - 08 Jun 2007 12:07 - 679 of 1564

Ted,

Are your new stocks making money, flat or losing money? Just curious if you currently feel the stock market is a better place to make money than say 5.5% in a bank account somewhere.

Strawbs.

Big Ted - 08 Jun 2007 12:07 - 680 of 1564

I remember buying TAN in the last correction, @90p, and selling again with the jitters at the same price, if this is a correction and it was only 3/4 months ago we had the last, look at the growth, i know TAN is generally an exception to the rule, as a very strong performer, but 70/75% growth in sp in 4 months, surely certain elements of the market are heading for meltdown...?

Strawbs - 08 Jun 2007 12:16 - 681 of 1564

I would say TAN is a bit of an exception. I also made quite a bit on that before selling in the last correction, having bought when tipped in IC. Of course if I'd held until today, I'd have made a lot more. Taking the rest of my portfolio though the percentage increase wasn't a great deal better than money in the bank, and that's with the added risk. In the preceeding years though, my overall returns where way ahead of money in the bank. That's what made my mind up to switch to cash really. In a very bullish market most can pick winners, but in a flat to bearish market, it's a lot more difficult to pick enough of the right ones......

Strawbs.

Big Ted - 08 Jun 2007 12:19 - 682 of 1564

Strawbs...
I am out of property at the moment and therefore 80% liquid, which is in 6.05% account, i am still looking for land, as even though i expect a correction starting autumn in house prices, i fear land will hold up through supply/demand problems for years to come.
I am fully in stocks and watching (somewhat nervously) with interest, UMN HAWK and couple others doing ok, but i still hold some absolute crap SEO CHP to name a couple... just hoping for at least one final push to say 6900 and bank some profits to counter the others...

Ted

Strawbs - 08 Jun 2007 12:28 - 683 of 1564

Sounds sensible. I'm also out of property as I think it's another asset that'll get hit hard if rates continue to rise. I'm not expecting to enter equities again for at least 18 months, possibly longer. If we are at a tipping point, I think it'll take a few years to play out at least. I suspect the best performing stocks will get hit the hardest if the slide picks up momentum, simply because they've done so well and probably have more profits available to take....

Strawbs.

cynic - 08 Jun 2007 12:42 - 684 of 1564

am delighted to be holding some good solid property (not shares in same), and i don't really care if there is a bit of correction as they are all in really good locations and therefore will always hold value at worst.

with regard to shares, i don't think we are in for meltdwon, though i slowly taking money off the table ..... still hold UMN but sold HAWK this morning at a good profit, sold CHP several weeks back (nasty loss), and was never ever enticed by SEO

Big Ted - 08 Jun 2007 12:46 - 685 of 1564

Get on Richard, i was waiting for you to warn me about this correction, came too late... lol

Strawbs - 08 Jun 2007 12:48 - 686 of 1564

Don't think it's at meltdown stage yet. That'll probably come as a "surprise event" rather than the start of a correction (could be wrong though). Property will continue to be in demand, but if rates continue to rise I think it'll force out the speculative buy-to-letters, and that will surpress the market with excess stock for a while. If holding long term then property should always do well. Especially on a small island. :-)

In my opinion....

Strawbs.

Big Ted - 08 Jun 2007 12:54 - 687 of 1564

ditto... my friends at estate agents are saying it is quiet, i think the rush to put property on the market before the hips packages (and consequent farce) before June 1st has led to many properties on market, my concern is as you say, if more recent but-to-letters start to cash in equity, it could snowball and force prices further downward, as Cynic said, if you hold property in a strong location, it will always fetch a premium...
I have been considering buying in Cape Verde...
hmmmmmmmmm

cynic - 08 Jun 2007 13:19 - 688 of 1564

buy-to-let has been riding for a fall for quite a while ...... "family" use our bits bar one which a friend and i bought for 50k in 1978 just off Portobello and has been let to the same tenant since 1985 ..... don't think that will get hit too hard!

hewittalan6 - 08 Jun 2007 13:44 - 689 of 1564

Whether correction or crash, I will continue to trade normally (with the exception I will not put any fresh money on the table).
My reasoning is based on 1 study, 1 famous quote from a top notch investor (can't remember who) and 1 economic truism.
The quote was not to buy a share in any company unless you would be happy to buy the whole company, and not to buy a share for even 10 minutes unless you would happily hold for 10 years.
The study showed that with the exception of the biggest players, the costs of selling, buying, taxes and the spread, combined with less than perfect timing, most would lose on the deal compared to staying put.
Finally the truism. Cash, bonds and equities are correllated investments. Their movements affect each other, and in the medium term, growth on them must always be for equities to outstrip bonds and bonds to outstrip cash. Capitalism is based on this fundamental principle. If this principle breaks down, so does capitalism and we all find our investments, cash or otherwise to be almost worthless.
So for me, I'll keep going, but the very best of luck to all in these stormy seas, whatever your plans.
Alan

cynic - 08 Jun 2007 13:47 - 690 of 1564

good logic alan ...... should not be surprised coming from you (creep, creep, smarm, smarm)
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