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Good Afternoon,

Fundamentalist, when you back and lay (as you did with the cricket draw) are you looking to 'arb' the difference in back/lay prices?

edit: backed the intraday 2-3pm that FTSE greater than 4828.2 at 2.14
Diego

Hi diego

No looking to back a trend mainly based on judgement of where i think the match is going

for example - i layed the draw at 1.07 when i thought the declaration was due - it had to happen as SA have to win the game. As soon as the declaration was made the price went out to 1.4 relecting the change in status - but to any watching the game this had to happen!!! As soon as england started defensively the draw started to shorten so i backed it and then layed it off 1/2 hr later

Thanks Fundamentalist - on a separate point, does one 'green-up' whenever the opportunity arises? the reason I ask is that the opportunity for me to greenup on my intraday trade might well present itself.

Diego

Diego

the simple answer to that is no - if you treat it like any trade you would green up when you think you have the maximum profit

you should have an exit plan when you enter the trade - if all you aqre looking for is one tick then you would green up immediately, if you are looking for 10 ticks then you would wait until it achieved this or if the trend changed

Thanks Fundamentalist -

I greenup for the share hell of it - just to see how I would feel ( and does it feel good. It's the closest I ever got, when trading, to the comfort zone).
But I shall take heed of what you say it makes more than a little sense.

Diego

There is a simple rule for greening up depending on how you green up or your definition of greening up.

If you are green across all events then you should let losses run to maturity (if you find yourself in that situation). The other scenarios vary depending on your loss strategy.

This is because the market is generally efficient and therefore you will screw up your long term expentancy if you don't have a valid money management strategy. Greening up can ruin that just as well as letting a loss run or cutting it can do.

I do cover than in the course.

Scrip

Southwell 4.00

Nevinstown - matched at 65 this am, went off at 5.1 and romped home - nice horse to trade (especially if you let the profit run rather than greening up - slapped wrist for me lol)

65 into 5.1 and romped home and I thought steamers made a good laying candidate. Hmmm.

Green on the Watford vs Liverpool match already. Playing around with a couple of variations based upon my earlier assestment. Draw currently around 2.95 will come into 2.56ish if still 0-0 at half time I estimate.

2.58 at half time - The beauty of mathematical models. Who says sports are unpredictable!!

Scrip

just been watching and waiting - dull as dishwater lol!!!

Scrip

if you have time take a look at the race i mentioned, there was 2 steamers and several drifters - the perfect race for trading if the volume had been a fraction higher

Curious drift on the draw at half time. Don't see that very often so bought and sold some quickly as the second half started.

"just been watching and waiting - dull as dishwater lol!!!"

Unless Watford get a goal, Liverpool will be happy. Tomorrow night will be a different ball game altogether I think. Can't wait.

As I am green I'm going to nip out to get some milk. You may want to trade the draw it will collapse quite quickly now.

Will have a look at the race.

"You may want to trade the draw it will collapse quite quickly now."

Then again!

Fundamentalist - how do you 'look' at a race after its been settled. I presume you meant on Betfair somewhere?

You can't unless you actively capture it or are a member of the BDP forum.

Ah, ok thanks.

Its high time for me to jump on board this thread and hopefully add my penny's worth.

Firstly, thanks Scrip for your recent email and will be in touch soon.

Hi to Fundamentalist and Harlosh, fellow reprobates from class of Nov 04.

I wasn't as quick off the blocks as you guys but feel that I've gathered enough information to hopefully make some serious profits. I've already done quite well on football, cricket, darts and tennis. Will be looking at other opportunities too. Made a sensational profit on the Eng v S.Africa draw today! It took over 3 days of backing and laying off as the odds were changing.It was hard work at times and I'd have been mightily p....d off if the match didnt end in a draw as I didnt green out. As the match progressed it looked more and more like a draw although there were many dodgy moments.

To those who are contemplating Scrips course in Feb - Get On It! You won't regret it. My knowledge of Betfair prior to Scrips Clitheroe intro presentation was zero so there's plenty of hope for those still unsure.

Bakko

welcome - glad to have you on the thread and good to hear you are doing well

like you - had a result backing the draw in the cricket - but the best move was greening up prior to the declaration, then going again once the declaration came!!!!!

Hi Backko and welcome. Glad to have you on board.

Fundy and Harlosh, Thanks for welcome.

If anyone is interested in tennis - Aussie Open, get onto

www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/index.html

Scores are live and refresh on a live basis.

Thanks Bakko, just been looking for a site with that info.