< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

go on a diet......

knew some dickhead would rise to that little trailed bait!

lol.

So no one else knows either ,,oh well i'm happy.

This is worth 150p if the drilling and production comes right this spring,summer....

As per post #620, price was considered to be = to NAV at 125p. I wonder if profit taking will happen then?

There is drilling, exploration upside but like everthing else is dependent on oil pushing ever higher...still I think 150p is a possibility this year anyway....with profit taking along the way.

Probably the main reason for the steady rise is the PoO which at present is $83.25bo,couple that with E-6 news well overdue and a possible acquisition
(Shell are selling off their onshore assets). So all in all a very positive scenario and long may it continue.
cyril

Broker note from Citigrp today:
"Afren Cheapest exposure to West Africa Upgrade to Buy Afrens strategy of
securing access to Nigerian resources through local 'indigenous' partnerships
offers a unique investment opportunity. Future value creation is premised on
reserve additions at Ebok-Okwok, exploration drilling outside of Nigeria and entry
into new assets. We expect newsflow on all of the above in the coming months. On
our new macro assumptions, the risk-reward trade-off flips to the upside. Buy
(1H) with a new 1.20/sh target"

Cheers.

E-Bok 6 successful.

Highlights



Ebok-6 appraisal well completed and exceeded pre drill expectations

Ebok-6 encountered a total of 107 ft gross oil pay in the LD-1A and D2 reservoir sands

D2 Southern Lobe STOIIP upgraded from 33 mmbbls pre drill to 135 mmbbls oil, representing a 400% increase in volumes

Gross technically recoverable volumes post Ebok-6 are expected to increase to 23 mmbbls, based on reservoir modelling work currently underway (8 mmbbls pre drill)

Upgrade to total Ebok field volumetrics of 425 mmbbls STOIIP and 116 mmbbls estimated recoverable

Total Ebok resource potential increased to 182 mmbbls recoverable

Ebok-6 appraisal completion marks successful conclusion of three well pre-development appraisal phase

First phase of Ebok field Development underway with five horizontal oil production wells in the D2 resevoir




Ebok-6 appraisal well results




The Ebok-6 appraisal well was drilled by the Transocean Adriatic IX jack up drilling unit to a total depth of 4,296 ft md on the Ebok D2 Southern Lobe ("D2SL"), with drilling operations completed on 27th November 2009. The well encountered a total gross hydrocarbon column of 107 ft (comprising 82 ft in the D2 and 25 ft in the LD1A reservoirs).




Continued incremental reserves growth




The greater than expected hydrocarbon column has lead to an upgrade in D2SL volumetrics post Ebok-6 to 135 mmbbls STOIIP of which 23 mmbbls is estimated as recoverable (versus pre-drill estimates of 33 mmbbls STOIIP, 8 mmbbls recoverable). This increases total 2P Ebok recoverable reserve estimates to 116 mmbbls.




Completion of the Ebok-6 appraisal well represents the successful conclusion of the pre-development Ebok appraisal phase (Ebok-4, Ebok-5 and Ebok-6 wells). Based on a pre farm-in gross reserve estimate of 25 mmbbls, appraisal drilling to date has confirmed an incremental 91 mmbbls recoverable through a 100% drilling success rate. This is a strong endorsement of Afren's regional understanding and interpretation of the subsurface.







Continued appraisal and development of the Ebok field




Following completion of the Ebok-6 well, work on Development Phase 1a commenced on 9th December 2009.




The first phase development plan comprises five horizontal oil production wells in the D2 reservoir, one horizontal oil production well targeting the D1 reservoir and one water injection well in the central Fault Block 1 and Fault Block 2 areas of the field. All wells will be drilled from a single field location via a Well-head Support Structure ("WSS") and mobile offshore production unit ("MOPU"). Fabrication of the WSS is complete and is in transit for delivery to the project. The Company is in the process of finalising contract discussions on the production facilities. Associated gas produced will be utilised as fuel for the facilities' power generation and as gas lift to assist well productivity.




Following completion of the initial development phase, the subsequent development phases will incorporate the full development of the D2 Southern Lobe, D1 reservoir (Fault Block 1 & 2 areas), and Fault Block West, whilst appraising the potential within the West Flank Qua Iboe structure, the D2 Upside Extension and the Fault Block North (cumulative total of 212 mmbbls STOIIP and 66 mmbbls recoverable).







Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren, commented:




"The Ebok-6 appraisal well represents a successful conclusion to the three well pre-development Ebok appraisal phase. We have significantly upgraded reserves at the project to 116 mmbbls recoverable, representing an incremental 91 mmbbls recoverable, through a 100% drilling success rate. While the first phase development is underway, we will continue to de-risk the remaining appraisal and exploration upside potential across the broader Ebok - Okwok complex with the objective of delivering further material reserves growth."










Alhaji Mohammed Indimi, Chairman of Oriental, commented:




"The Ebok-6 appraisal well, supplements the Ebok-4 and Ebok-5 drilling successes, all of which have exceeded the Afren-Oriental partnership pre-drill expectations and materially increased the Ebok resource base."

cyril

Great news....this will be worth 150p like I said...patience....the sp will rise as long as oil remains at this level...

with sp slipping back to opening level, arguably a good time to top up

I am expecting this to go to 120p very soon with ups and downs all the way to 150p sometime this year.

1053 GMT [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse nudges up Afren (AFR.LN) price target to 121p from 161p as the Ebok-6 appraisal well beats pre-drill expectations. Credit Suisse says successfully bringing the Ebok field on stream in 2Q '10 would give credibility to Afren as a field operator, which the brokerage thinks could lead to further deal flow and opportunities in '10. Credit Suisse thinks Afren's excess cash could fund further accretive acquisitions around the Ebok area in Nigeria. Afren should also be included in the FTSE 250 index, come March '10. Outperform rating. Shares +1.9% at 105p.

up or down 121p ?.

Good point required ,,i think it was meant to read that they upped their target to 161p from 121p ..

Bought more today ,something i dont usually do. The future looks bright.

A slightly contrarian note from the FT today:
"Successful completion of the Ebok 6 well is an undeniable positive for AFR, given the upgrades in volumes they are booking on the back of it. Still, until I know what the word 'technical' is supposed to mean in the press release, the announcement that gross technical recoverable volumes have increased to 23mmbbl from a pre-drill estimate of 8mmbbl, I cant bring myself to get overly excited. AFR have a justified reputation as one of the most aggressive reserve bookers in the sector (witness the upgrade to reserves on acquisition of Okwok from Addax, despite no wells drilled), and a very high R/P ratio is always a sign of aggressive reserve bookings (remember VPC? Same thing). Given the discrepancy between internal reserve estimates and the recent NSAI independent report, I'll wait for production to come onstream or for independent certification of these reserves before getting excited."

Harry note of caution justified in our opinion as directors have every reason to ramp up reserve estimates as they are sitting on a load of shares.