Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Just in....

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

In this Op-ed published in today’s Guardian George Soros explains why President Vladimir Putin is not an ally in the fight against ISIS—and why he is stoking the refugee crisis in Syria to destabilize the European Union. It is the first of three Op-eds on related subjects that he will be publishing in the coming days. I will be sure to send along the other two when they are printed.

All best,
Michael Vachon

Putin is a Bigger Threat to Europe's Existence than Isis
The Guardian, February 11, 2016
By George Soros

The leaders of the US and the EU are making a grievous error in thinking that president Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a potential ally in the fight against Islamic State. The evidence contradicts them. Putin’s aim is to foster the EU’s disintegration, and the best way to do so is to flood Europe with Syrian refugees.

Russian planes have been bombing the civilian population in southern Syria forcing them to flee to Jordan and Lebanon. There are now 20,000 Syrian refugees camped out in the desert awaiting admission to Jordan. A smaller number are waiting to enter Lebanon. Both groups are growing.

Russia has also launched a large-scale air attack against civilians in northern Syria. This was followed by a ground assault by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s army against Aleppo, a city that used to have 2 million inhabitants. The barrel bombs caused 70,000 civilians to flee to Turkey; the ground offensive could uproot many more.

The families on the move may not stop in Turkey. German chancellor Angela Merkel flew to Ankara this week to make last-minute arrangements with the Turkish government to induce the refugees already in Turkey to prolong their stay there. She offered to airlift 200,000-300,000 Syrian refugees annually directly to Europe on the condition that Turkey will prevent them from going to Greece and will accept them back if they do so.

Putin is a gifted tactician, but not a strategic thinker. There is no reason to believe he intervened in Syria in order to aggravate the European refugee crisis. Indeed, his intervention was a strategic blunder because it embroiled him in a conflict with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which has hurt the interests of both.

But once Putin saw the opportunity to hasten the EU’s disintegration, he seized it. He has obfuscated his actions by talking of cooperating against a common enemy, Isis. He has followed a similar approach in Ukraine, signing the Minsk agreement but failing to carry out its provisions.

It is hard to understand why US and EU leaders take Putin at his word rather than judging him by his behaviour. The only explanation I can find is that democratic politicians seek to reassure their publics by painting a more favourable picture than reality justifies. The fact is that Putin’s Russia and the EU are engaged in a race against time: the question is which one will collapse first.

The Putin regime faces bankruptcy in 2017, when a large part of its foreign debt matures, and political turmoil may erupt sooner than that. The president’s popularity, which remains high, rests on a social compact requiring the government to deliver financial stability and a slowly but steadily rising standard of living. Western sanctions, coupled with the sharp decline in the price of oil, will force the regime to fail on both counts.

Russia’s budget deficit is running at 7% of GDP, and the government will have to cut it to 3% in order to prevent inflation from spiralling out of control. Russia’s social security fund is running out of money and has to be merged with the government’s infrastructure fund in order to be replenished. These and other developments will have a negative effect on living standards and opinions of the electorate before the parliamentary elections this autumn.

The most effective way Putin’s regime can avoid collapse is by causing the EU to collapse sooner. An EU that is coming apart at the seams will not be able to maintain the sanctions it imposed on Russia following its incursion into Ukraine. On the contrary, Putin will be able to gain considerable economic benefits from dividing Europe and exploiting the connections with commercial interests and anti-European parties that he has carefully cultivated.

As matters stand, the EU is set to disintegrate. Ever since the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent rescue packages for Greece, the EU has learned how to muddle through one crisis after another. But today it is confronted by five or six crises at the same time, which may prove to be too much. As Merkel correctly foresaw, the migration crisis has the potential to destroy it.

When a state or association of states is in mortal danger, it is better for its leaders to confront harsh reality than to ignore it. The race for survival pits the EU against Putin’s Russia. Isis poses a threat to both, but it should not be overestimated. Attacks mounted by jihadi terrorists, however terrifying, do not compare with the threat emanating from Russia.

Isis (and al-Qaida before it) has recognised the achilles heel of western civilisation – the fear of death – and learned how to exploit it. By arousing latent Islamophobia in the west and inducing the public and governments to treat Muslims with suspicion, it hopes to convince young Muslims that there is no alternative to terrorism. Once this strategy is understood, there is a simple antidote: refuse to behave the way your enemies want you to.

The threat emanating from Putin’s Russia will be difficult to counter. Failure to recognise it will make the task even more difficult.

That seems a fair summary of ME and EU problems.

Be careful what you wish for!

How does it effect China?

.

Good ol George, honest broker and all that stuff.

He then goes on to to completely kipper himself with the following:



As Merkel correctly foresaw, the migration crisis has the potential to destroy it (€urope)


What exactly is this mans angle?

thought you were educated fred ...... affect NOT effect .... real schoolboy stuff

I thought you were too.

It can be either imo.

Manuel, another example of your affectation!

And from the Daily Express...

How will the UK look in ten years? Expert's CHILLING predictions for the world's future
Can you guess how the UK will look ten years from now?
By Charles J. Lidguard
PUBLISHED: 04:00, Thu, Feb 11, 2016 | UPDATED: 08:12, Thu, Feb 11, 2016

Scary world predictions

We are facing political unrest, financial turmoil and a constant threat of terror. The world can be a very scary place.

But how will things look in the future? How will countries of the world fare ten years from now?

Private Intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting published a report predicting the next decade’s worth of global economic and political developments.

And some of their forecasts are truly shocking.

Europe will be split into four:

The report claims Europe will become divided ten years from now.

They believe the countries will become Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and the British islands as relations break down and they become increasingly estranged from each other.

They said: "The European Union might survive in some sense, but European economic, political, and military relations will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in scope and not binding.”

They believe China will become more oppressed

China will face political chaos: The report states that China will have a slow decade as economic growth declines.

This will lead to unrest and discontent towards the Community Party who rule.

But instead of becoming more liberal, the party will increase the control and oppression.

The report claims problems will also arise from the country’s inability to distribute wealth geographically. Strategic Forecasting said: "The expectation that the interior, beyond parts of the more urbanized Yangtze River Delta, will grow as rapidly as the coast is being dashed."

They predict Russia will collapse.

Russia is set for collapse: Strategic Forecasting claimed that Vladimir Putin will see an uprising in Moscow.

It said: “There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum, what will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation."

The US will take a more isolationist stance

Strategic Forecasting claimed that the world is set to become a more "disorderly" place.

It said: “The United States will continue to be the major economic, political, and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. It will be a disorderly world. The one constant will be the continued and maturing power of the United States - a power that will be much less visible and that will be utilised far less in the next decade."

Surely no one takes anything in the Express seriously. It is an extreme right wing comic.

QT tonight....

Nigel was on and did pretty well, getting lots of applause for what he had to say. This was despite lots of the panel putting words in his mouth about him 'hating immigrants' - which is totally untrue. What he wants is CONTROLLED IMMIGRATION.

In fact, he sees the ONLY way to get this, is by taking ourselves out of the EU with a Brexit and bringing in a derivative of the Australian Points System when we would then have control of immigration ourselves.

The panel were mostly 'anti Jeremy Hunt (and the government)' for messing up the discussions/negotiations with the Junior Doctors. They were united in sympathy for the 'weekend problem' when the death rate is statistically seen to go up but felt this wasn't down to the Junior Doctors at all.

We watched the 'elderly celebs' who had gone out to India to investigate things and their adventures and experiences were shown on the 'Real Marigold Hotel' programme this week and last.

If you could do without most of what we seem to hold dear, here in the UK, living out there permanently seemed to make quite a lot of sense.

It's a hell of a sight cheaper and the healthcare faciities seem to be very cheap and of very high quality. Property was ridiculously cheap and very well built too. Albeit that 'position, position, position' went completely out of the equation.

The Indians do seem to be a very 'happy' lot of people, IMHO. The 'caste system' is sadly still very prevalent.

All that said, I don't think it would suit me. eg. I like to hammer my Merc along the road now and again and doing this wouldn't be possible at all.

Neither could I come to terms with all the visible signs of extreme poverty.

Yes Farage did get a lot of applause on QT last night , if that was a year ago it would have been much less ,just goes to show that a larger majority can see he has a point .

EL - the bits you saw of india were of course very nice indeed, but that is far cry from actually living there ...... you could show a similar apparent idyllic existence living in rural france

My company had a contract with the Indian Government which meant that I went there often. Usually for stays of a month. While I enjoyed the weather and the scenery, I always felt that I was in an alien environment despite being welcomed by many. I couldn't wait for the time to leave.
Strangely, after a couple of months I was quite keen to return but that dissipated as soon as my flight touched down.

it's certainly a fascinating country and i'ld love to spend time there, but there are so many aspects that would drive me truly nuts that i certainly wouldn't want to live there ..... i'm sure the same could be said of china

I travelled quite widely around India. One of the States I worked in was Rajasthan, which was a dry (no booze) State. To take liquor into there I had to have an alcoholics licence which, in my case, was issued at the consulate in London. I had to declare that I was an uncontrollable alcoholic but it allowed me to carry the alcohol or buy it at a bottle store in nearby Haryana. For medicinal purposes.
As part of the agreement I travelled first class on Air India between London and, usually, Delhi. I remember one return flight to London on the 747. I was sat in an aisle seat next to an elegant and demure Indian lady. In those days you could smoke on flights and after take-off the stewardess offered drinks and cigarettes which I accepted but the lady declined. After some time she shyly asked me what i was drinking. I cant remember what it was now, but when I offered to get her one, she accepted. From then on it was hours of drinking, smoking and laughing. Great character. Turned out she was the wife of the ambassador to the US and was travelling on to New York. When I got off at London, I told her just coffee for the next flight and plenty of water. And no more smoking. :)

As suggested:

http://news.sky.com/story/1641269/germanys-merkel-backs-camerons-eu-reforms

Angela Merkel has given her support to David Cameron's EU reforms, saying they will "benefit Europe as a whole".

In a speech attended by the Prime Minister in Hamburg, the German Chancellor gave her strongest endorsement yet to the UK government's proposals.

Mrs Merkel said: "These concerns that David Cameron has raised with the European Union are not only understandable - but we even support them."

She told dignitaries: "We are at one in saying that in the European Union much more needs to be done for competitiveness, more transparency and cutting red tape."

And in clear reference to the PM's demands to restrict benefits to EU migrants she said that "social systems ought to be protected against abuse".

Interesting scientific discovery but I think it needs confirming by Tim Peake(twin peaks)...if these nipples in space are for real : there will be a long queue ready for blast off that's for sure....

Of course Merkel will make the right noises. As I have said before, a Brexit is the last thing they want due to the likely domino effect. Cameron needs a strong out forecast now to get real concessions, but I doubt he has the intelligence to play his hand properly.
On the subject of intelligence, I can't but wonder looking at that labour front bench. Two obese self-satisfied women in the guise of Thornbury and Abbott and two scrawny assed males who must wonder if they are on pot or not. How did we get here?
Thornbury aka " I'm not posh, I failed the 11 plus". No dear, you're not posh, you are thick. Thick for failing the exam and thick for thinking intelligence and social standing are mutually inclusive. Maybe that's why she walks around with that silly superior look on her face. Pigs and lipstick don't come into it.