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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 01 Mar 2006 12:40 - 688 of 1009

Not convinced that this is "being kept down". I think a lot of people are wary with regard to buying ahead of results due to what has happened the last 2 years and there appears to be as many sellers as there are buyers.

Ultimately till we read the results on friday we dont know where this is going to go

Fred1new - 01 Mar 2006 13:09 - 689 of 1009

Fundy, Don't like saying this, but I tend to agree with you.

Douggie - 01 Mar 2006 14:09 - 690 of 1009

Can only hope that since it's not gone up much, there is less chance of a retrace to match last 4 results days

everything XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXd ;o\

pachandl - 01 Mar 2006 14:17 - 691 of 1009

Fund - I was aggregating buys/sells over the past 7 trading days which would suggests an sp at a higher level than its current one. Instead of saying "kept down" perhaps I should have said that the MMs are not "suckering new holders by increasing the sp in anticipation of results". Anyway, not long to wait now.

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 07:35 - 692 of 1009

Just had an initial look at the results and my thoughts fwiw are:

Headline figures are ok but not as good as most are hoping for and the companies focus appears to have switched completely to the fuel card business rather than the fraud business. With lower margins and less growth, coupled with the divi comment this looks more like a utility company than a high growth tech stock with high growth prospects

Poor performance from the fraud business with no profit growth from the CNP business and the continued decline of the CP business. Gross profit in the CNP business is unchanged year on year and CP gross profit is down 21%. Previous years CNP contracts do not seem to be providing the uplift expected though some good new contracts announced (though as usual no numbers)

On a EPS of 9.09 current PE of 16.5 (based on 150p SP) looks plenty high enough based on the business profile switch towards the fuel cards


Only my initial opinions and WTFDIK, good luck to all holders


Will have a better look later but will not be buying in at current prices

optomistic - 03 Mar 2006 07:51 - 693 of 1009

I'll go along with those thoughts Fundy, I was looking for high growth from the CNP area. Dissapointing, will stay on the sidelines, seems no rush to go in now.

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 07:56 - 694 of 1009

Opto

not the company i was looking for, effectively it is heading towards a utility company imo. You have to wonder with the amount of focus on the fuel card side whether it will be the fraud side that they look to sell off - it wasnt that long ago most were thinking they should sell of the fuel card business - this has now become there core operation!!!

Im not sure the market will know what to make of these figures, i would guess it may be quite a volatile day though with little overall change in SP, a lot will depend on how some of the longer term holders react to the change in the gravity of the business

Flackwell Vialli - 03 Mar 2006 08:28 - 695 of 1009

With you on this Fundy to a tee - exactly my thoughts - Differing view on advfn, but it takes at least two views to make a market I s'pose.

optomistic - 03 Mar 2006 08:31 - 696 of 1009

FV, I think on advfn the RTD thread is more of a fan club than a discussion area. Say something negative at your peril!

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 08:39 - 697 of 1009

FV

read a bit on ADVFN this am - a lot of blinkers around. Far too many on there have "fallen in love with RTD". I bet if they looked at the reasons they bought into RTD very few of those reasons still exist. Dont get me wrong, I still think its a decent company but as an investor the management have taken it in the opposite direction to the one i would want - ie away from high growth CNP as the core business and too heavily towards the lower margin fuel card business which in my book is almost a utility, and there are better utility plays out there currently.

Fred1new - 03 Mar 2006 09:19 - 698 of 1009

May be better fish ion the sea.

Have not read the results in depth yet.

The market seems a little disappointed, so am I.

Looking briefly at pattern of directors and institutional b/s and there was quite a lot of buys from November 2005 on.

Not certain yet

Sitting on averall of about 340%.

I will have my coffee, and try and make sense of the results.

Sorry Douggie, hoped fro better.

boxerdog - 03 Mar 2006 09:40 - 699 of 1009

FUND, must admit i expected more! this time, as i got back in a couple of weeks ago.I too may have been guilty of wearing blinkers to some extent.
You have been proved right in this instance.Your also bang on Re.ADVFN. post at your peril site.

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 09:46 - 700 of 1009

Thanks boxer

Its a shame as having made good profits a few years back on these i genuinely thought this was going to be a great longer term growth story via the CNP business. The amount of contracts they were signing and the marketplace implied massive growth potential in this area, yet they werent backed up by last years results and to me the same scenario has been repeated.

I always try to keep a note of why I buy or sell a share and revisit this everytime results come out. I then make a decision as to whether this still holds. If it doesnt then i look to see if there are new reasons which replace the original ones that i am happy with - has served me pretty well over the years

Douggie - 03 Mar 2006 09:59 - 701 of 1009

Mournin all......hopes not realised !... :-[

I have felt the wrath of the ADVFN fan club...especialy their ramper in chief Christeth ... ;-/

55011 - 03 Mar 2006 11:08 - 702 of 1009

Douggie, a couple of years back I went to RTD's AGM. It was an interesting session, business wise.

Later that day, three other people posted their view of the AGM (on ADVFN boards), being attendees also. It was a lesson in interpretation, shall we say.

Also at the meeting there was someone who went on and on asking questions for a full 45 minutes. He was dealt with courteously and patiently by the company chairman. The rest of the meeting was getting very fidgety, it being well past lunchtime by then.

One day I shall ask RTD's "ramper in chief" if it was he. Meanwhile he has been on my filter list for some time. His incessant posts have become devalued by their inevitability.


Audire altere partem. Hear the other side. It is good advice, and I much prefer a sensible two way debate of both pros and cons.


Whither RTD now? Hard to say as the character of the business has changed significantly. There is also the little matter of some litigation yet to be finalised. I wonder if that is connected with the shift in the company's strategy.

Fred1new - 03 Mar 2006 12:22 - 703 of 1009

Might lighten the load a little.

Read the accounts, To complicated for me.

Sniffed around. There is this summary, but I think it a little optimistic.

Ratio of B/S slightly improved with a few reasonable sized buys



Retail Decisions sounds optimistic
Date: Friday 03 Mar 2006

LONDON (ShareCast) - Card fraud prevention firm Retail Decisions said it was optimistic going forward after it managed to refocus its business as new Chip & Pin technology ate away at its traditional business.

The advent of Chip & PIN for credit and debit card transactions has had a high profile impact on consumer's retail experience and on the level of fraud experienced in such transactions.

Retail Decisions said it was already aware back in 2000 of the likely impact Chip & PIN would have on its business. Revenues from its card present contract have declined and the contract has now ceased completely.

Retail Decisions is still seeing strong growth from card not present business as the appetite for buying over the phone and internet continues to boom.

The group reported a pre-tax profit up 31% to 8.0m for the year to December from 6.1m a year earlier, on revenue up 72% to 54.7m. Basic EPS surged 29% to 9.09p per share.

Chief executive Carl Clump said, We enter 2006 with optimism. We have great businesses, excellent people and significant opportunities. Trading in the new financial year has started encouragingly.



zscrooge - 03 Mar 2006 13:21 - 704 of 1009

I wonder if the other side worry about the opinions on this board? Their ramper in chief can be somewhat excessive but is treated with mild amusement by those who understand and, to be fair to him, he has held firm when all around short termers were predicting the collapse of the company and general gloom and doom re the cybersource cc.

It's fallen a few pence on results day -wow. Still holding from just over 5p and it will reach 2 in the medium term. Maybe not an oily but 8x in3 years or so is sensible.

pachandl - 03 Mar 2006 13:23 - 705 of 1009

I have to agree with most of the posters this morning. A little bit surprised by the comment in the above "Sharecast comment": Retail Decisions is still seeing strong growth from card not present business as the appetite for buying over the phone and internet continues to boom. I cannot see that RTD have generated that much of an increase in profit for that type of activity. As I said before (and others have said since) RTD is becoming a bit of a safe "utility".

As for future direction, there have been some posts today that have been critical of RTD's recent change of direction. Perhaps we should recognise that we might have all been wrong to assume that CNP was a high growth sector or, more accurately, that CNP was a high profit-generating sector.

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 13:44 - 706 of 1009

Fair point pach,

i guess i mildly criticised the mgmt because they are taking the company in a direction that didnt suit me, that doesnt mean its wrong, but equally it also means they will have quite a large change in shareholder base as the new strategy may not well fit with that of those previously invested

as for CNP not being profitable, have to admit im not convinced

Zscrooge

8 times in any investment is a good thing. Like you i was in this at single digits and to be honest am glad i sold last year. Its part in my portfolio was as a higher risk, high growth play which it isnt anymore - part of the problem with what is effectively a hybrid company like this is that it is actually difficult calculate fair value as it has no direct comparators and the results dont give quite enough info to value it as two separate entities.

Dont doubt it'll get to 2, more a case of how long it will take for me and that timescale could well be a year + imo

Douggie - 03 Mar 2006 17:47 - 707 of 1009

What do we do now ........... be patient ...look fwd. to Sept. .............. !! ;o\
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