Place your snippet of news on this thread if you feel it will help others gain from the news.

cheers GF.

An interesting read from Frequent trader Robbie Burns......................




ROBBIE BURNS THE NAKED TRADER
Every week, Robbie Burns of www.nakedtrader.co.uk gives his unique insight on the markets.

Robbie has been a full-time trader since 2001 and has amassed profits of more than 130,000. He writes about his daily share buys and sells every weekday on the naked trader website. He also writes a column for the Sunday Times about his SIPP pension fund so far he has built up profits of more than 30,000. His book The Naked Trader is due to be published in November.





I've always had trouble spelling "psychology".
But that doesn't matter as ADVFN has a very good editor who will make sure psy.. psc..will be spelt correctly! (You were correct Robbie - Ed)

Market psychology is an important topic.

Because however cool you think you are, your buy and sell decisions will end up being based on simple human nature.

And, being humans, we are very emotional animals. We let emotions rule various aspects of our lives and it's just the same with investment.

Emotions quite simply get in the way of making good investment decisions.

For example I lost 7,000 by buying shares in Coffee Republic for 27p in the year 2000.. and selling them for 4p in 2001!

That's because I made the classic novice investor mistake of hanging onto a loser.

On top of that I got far too emotionally involved with the company because I liked the coffee - I even started buying more coffee there than I needed, in the idiotic hope it might push up the share price.

Of course all it did was keep me awake at night!

We all want to feel good about ourselves, and selling for a quick profit makes us feel VERY good. Trouble is, our feel good emotions harm long-term investment gains because it stops us sticking with the winners.

Many investors even take profits if a share has only gone up two or three per cent.

That's because they can proudly boast to themselves and others; "I banked a profit."

And of course emotion is the main reason for hanging on to losers for far too long.

We hate feelings of regret and selling a losing share makes us regret and maybe feel a bit mad at ourselves.

So we'd rather watch the shares continue to decline than take the loss and feel bad about it. It's stupid really, because eventually when we sell even lower we feel even worse!

There's another psychological problem when it comes to selling at a loss. That's feelings of revenge!

We want to get that money back and that causes us to be emotional and start taking too many risks.

If we've lost half our money we might be tempted to go for a small stock we think might double in order to get the money back. Or other dodgy behaviour.

This is where an unemotional stop loss comes into its own - that way a stock is sold without bringing in the emotions of regret and getting even. And that way means you are less likely to make a too-risky next trade.

Humans are very much a 'pack' animal. We like to do things together and this very much applies in the shares marketplace.

That's why we sell when everyone else is selling and buy when everyone else is buying.

It's why we sell winning shares far too early and sell losers far too late.

One of the main reasons investors lose money in the markets is their inability to sell something at a loss - like me with Coffee Republic.

This is mainly simply due to ego.

We just don't like to admit to ourselves that we got something wrong.

So we sit there and hold on and on to a share that just keeps on falling.

And absolutely every investor has done this and you will do it too!

It is quite difficult to phone a dealer and admit you've made a loss and are now taking it. It's much easier to take a loss online!

Basically you have to go against human nature when you take a loss, but you must steel yourself to do it otherwise you will not become a successful trader.

Let's take an example.

You want to buy a new share but you have to sell a current one to raise the cash.

The choice is between two shares.

One share is showing a loss of 20% - and the other is showing a profit of 20%.

Which share should be sold?

I would bet nine times out of ten, the investor would sell the stock that has gone up 20%, rather than sell the loser.

That's because selling the winner shows what a good decision it was to buy it and validates that decision. There's also an element of pride involved and it feels good to lock in the profit.

You can also tell your best friend/partner: "I just made 20% profit". (You keep the loser to yourself!)

I feel pretty good when I lock in a profit and extremely irritated when I have to take a loss!

You really have to learn not to postpone the feelings of regret. Avoidance of regret is one of the main reasons investors lose money.

cheers Gf

Killik Brokers morning news..................

NEWS IN BRIEF



The Taylor Nelson share price is moving favorably, up to 220p in early dealings. This is one of our research stocks and last weeks interim numbers have been well received with strong guidance in growth for the provision of market information. We are still running the position in ARM where we see a return of the price back above the 100p level. Currently, they trade at 88p.



Omega, the recently listed kitchens group announces strong better than expected first half results. The company, which was founded by former Spring Ram boss and Sunderland Chairman Bob Murray, provides bespoke kitchens into the independent trade made a 1.6 million profit and with the busiest half still to come (October is busy as kitchens are ordered in time for Christmas), full year forecasts of 3.6 million look fully achievable. At 123p, the stock trades on 13x earnings which, given the 20% growth, looks cheap. Admittedly, the MFI problems have weighed on the sector, but this small, nimble independent is doing well.

cheers Gf

Any views on HOT. Good report today profit and turnover up as well as price 5%.
Held for a while and though what a dog but it's looking good at long last.
I could really do with some good news real bad last few days.

MS

From Killiks morning note. I thinkwe have some TrafficMaster fans on here..............

TRAFFICMASTER meeting with management

This was the first opportunity for new boss Stuart Berman to present following the move by founder David Martell to step aside. Current trading is strong with sales of SmartNav on track at 11000 by June and on target for 28000 by the year end. The number of outlets selling SmartNav is now up from 2000 at the period end to closer to 3000 now although sales per outlet remains low. The key challenge for the group remains in outlet support and they are augmenting this with a pilot advertising investment on radio with the voice of Stephen Fry. Should this work, and Stuart will be looking to substantially increase marketing spend.

Teletrac is growing substantially boosted by its stronger finances since repaying the bonds (this allows fewer competitor attacks through their weakened balance sheet). The business, which provides fleet monitoring systems, now accounts for around half group profitability.

Management now has a very key year ahead to ensure no slip ups in performance. The 2005 SmartNav target is aggressive but fully achievable. Analysts are upgrading 2005 expectations for tax/interest receipt reasons. We see a range for the shares of between 80-110p until further evidence emerges that SmartNav growth remains on track. This should come around March April next year.

cheers GF.

Killik morning notes..............

NEWS IN BRIEF



Hardman Resources, in its regular Tuesday update, confirms that the Dorade-1 exploration well in PSC Block 2 (Mauritania) was spudded on 12 September. Capitaine-1 was spudded on 16th September but the casing became stuck at a depth of 2585 metres and will be redrilled at a date in the future. Tevet was spudded yesterday and Chinguetti-8 on the 14th. So far, there is little to interpret from this news but we shall monitor developments closely for reaction to other parties in this agreement, namely Premier Oil and Sterling Energy.



Umbro, the football shirt manufacturer has lost a licensing deal with Celtic, which has transferred to Nike. Umbro shares have been a firmer market of late rising from a low of 90p (stock was initially placed at 100p) to the current 110p, down 5p.



Gyrus, the medical devices group for reducing trauma in ear nose and throat operations, announces a profit increase of 3.7 million (+23%) on 14% increase in revenue. The model broadly works on the concept of installing a generator in the operating theatre and charging for disposable products used per operation (similar to the Gillette model). They have increased the number of generators by 33% during the year to 4256. They remains confident of high teens revenue growth. Current expectatio0ns for the year are 10 million of profits (which they confirm they are on track to achieve) followed by 12.5 million for 2005 for a prospective multiple of around 17.5. Not cheap, but this group is building friends.



Superscape shares have reclaimed the 40p level in morning trade on impressive trading volumes. We noted some sizeable buying yesterday with volume at 1.5 million. Typically the 40p level represents a ceiling for the price but the rise from the low has been steady and consistent. Of interest, a mobile content show begins at the Excel centre in the Docklands today. Results are due next month.



cheers Gf.

WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, this is a joke right?. I wouldnt say women were better investors but better spenders, certainly the ones I know LOL.

MONEY
Saving and Investing
Women better investors in 2003/04

Published: 17:22 Mon 27 Sept 2004
By Lorna Bourke, Money Columnist
Email to a friend


We all know that women are better drivers than men, writes Lorna Bourke; now the real blow to male egos - it appears women are more successful at managing their share portfolios than men.

According to a survey from Halifax Share Dealing, 72% of womens portfolios stayed at the same value or rose over the past year, compared with 66% of men's portfolios. Overall, grey haired investors were more successful than younger groups with 43% of the 65-74 age group reporting their portfolio had risen in value compared with just 29% of 25-34 year olds.


And confidence in shares remains strong, in spite of the lacklustre performance of the FTSE 100 over the past six months. Customers were asked what value they thought the FTSE 100 would reach in the future compared with its value at the time of the survey 4,306 in July of this year.


Some 85% of investors predicted the value would stay the same or increase in 6 months time. More than one third of respondents predicted a FTSE 100 value of 4,401-4,551 would be reached in 6 months' time.


When asked to make predictions over the next 12 months, the majority of investors (29%) thought the value would reach 4,400-4,550 points. Only 13% of investors thought the value would fall in one years time and 12% predicted a value of 5,000-5,150 points would be reached.


Given the very modest increases expected by the majority of those interviewed, it is curious that they stick with shares as an investment, when they could get a guaranteed 5% gross, or more, from fixed interest investments.


This may not be surprising, however, in the light of the interviewees understanding of economic fundamentals. The research also asked investors what effect they thought the recent hike in oil prices would have on the value of the FTSE 100.


Overall, 48% of investors predicted the increases would have no effect on the value of the FTSE 100 while 22% predicted the value would increase and 30% predicted the FTSE 100 would fall in value. The 65-74 age group was the most optimistic believing the FTSE 100 would go up compared with 18% of 25-34 year olds.


'This research is a fascinating view into investors predictions and attitudes of FTSE 100 performance, commented Sue Concannon, managing director of Halifax Share Dealing.

It is interesting that we are seeing women managing their portfolios better than men. The results suggest that women and older investors are generally more cautious which, in the current climate, seems to be a winning formula. It is encouraging that investors are optimistic in their predictions of the FTSE 100 value and it will be interesting to see if their confidence will be proved right, she said.ENDS.

Its not the beginning of April is it????????????????.


cheers GF.

An interesting snippet

Quote

Just a winde up apple. Cheers GF.

No, just background info on what is happening elsewhere in the energy market.

Companies that you don't buy can help to give a broader picture of what is going on.

Good point, good point.

cheers Gf.

Something interesting here to ponder over. From Killik morning notes.

Turning to valuations on global markets, it is also worthy now to look at historic and prospective price earnings ratios according to IBIS consensus (pre-goodwill).



MARKET VALUATIONS



2004 2005



United States 17.2 15.6

United Kingdom 13.5 12.5

EuroStoXX 13.3 11.9

France 12.8 11.6

DAX 13.5 11.5

TOPIX (Japan)* 18.1 16.0

Emerging Markets 8.5 8.5



If you subscribe to the view that the economy goes into 2005 in reasonable shape, this valuations hardly looked stretched.



Drilling down into some of the themes, we briefly flirted with the idea of rotating back to growth biased stocks. The chart we presented yesterday looked at the relative performance of stocks with a high yield versus those with a low yield (simplistic I know, but we have to start somewhere!). Despite the market moving higher over the past month, it remains the case that high yielding shares continue to out perform but our suspicion is that the tide will turn. To summarise, we believe it is time to look for the re-emergence of the growth rating. The PEG ratio, established by Jim Slater, looked at the relationship of the underlying growth rating compared to the price earnings ratio.



Below, we have highlighted some growth stocks, their price earnings ratios and PEG ratios according to REFS. A ratio around 1 is perceived as attractive and for such good quality stocks, we think cheap. The broad message is that portfolios need realigning towards growth.



Current ratings of growth stocks



Capita 341p 19.6x 1.7% 1.12

WPP 530p 15.2x 1.7% 1.15

Carphone Warehouse 150p 18x 1.0% 0.69

Smith & Nephew 515p 21.2x 1.1% 1.48

Vodafone 137p 14.3x 1.7% 1.89

Sage 172p 10.6x 1.1% 1.44

Reed Elsevier 505p 14.7x 2.7% 0.8





cheers GF

TOKYO (AFX) - An earthquake measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale rocked Tokyo
and the Kanto region of Japan Wednesday night, local media said quoting the
meteorological agency.
There were no reports of damage or injury, Kyodo news agency said, although
train services in the capital were temporarily halted following the tremor.
The meteorological agency did not issue any warning for tsunami waves which
sometimes follow earthquakes, Kyodo said.
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