The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

i dont think so to much damage has been done as i said in an earlier post you might see an high at the back end of the year but that is a long way of to tell

Phew! Got burnt today along with the rest of the world, but thank goodness i do not own any heavyweight mining stocks and that i lightened my portfolio significantly over the last few days. As snappy said, logic has no meaning when the market gets into a panic, but what is as difficult to know is when it will turn itself round again, as assuredly it will.

Of course the market is unnaturally skewed with its present market being heavily overweight in mining and oil stocks ..... It looks great when hard metal prices are rising but of course stinks in the reverse mode.

It is quite interesting to note that stocks like VOG and more especially EME, which one might have expected to be whalloped, went relatively unscathed.

My inclination is to sit tight and sit on your hands if you can bear the pain.

i think vog would have be walloped more but for the drilling report this week dont know about eme so cant comment

Popped in from traders thread.
As you can see UKX is retreating to 200 ma from where you might expect support??
Im long UKX 5691/ IDNX 1601

Woodie ... I am sure you are right, but positive RNS there was, and it is not unreasonable to expect the other ones due at regular intervals to be any less so .... sorry to sound such an unbounded optimist about VOG but I am!

Iain ..... I am afraid i think you are one brave bunny! ..... Looking at a different chart as supplied by a guy I trust in these matters, next stop may well not be until about 5450.

Dow Jones is still down at 209 points now.

Cheers Cynic.
In God we trust :-)5500 was past resistance and support.That means nothing at mo.So was 59800/700/600 etc
At the moment the devil may be a better option


Id go for 5422 BUT I think that could be overdone
So Ive raised my outlook.Lets see if I get HAMMERED :-)

And if i do I`ll tell

Iain ... you have obviously picked upp the level I was trying to find .... I think it is something to do with the index being +66.6% from a low .... but you probably know more than I (not difficult)

iain thanks for nice charts and your input expect a rally at some stage but when? as markets get over done on the upside as well as downside.

Amities / To compare this downturn to the "hi tec" implosion is a misnomer and too easy trap to fall into believing. This market is besieged with so many triggers into what optimists call a correction . Pessimists label a mini crash . And harpingers of doom . - . Oblivion . ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... This is a very different ballgame to 2000; but perhaps similar consequences will be felt . .. Bear in mind that via "T" bonds China lndia and Russia own 64% -YES ! own 64%% of the entire USA infrastructure . .The USA is in big trouble ! .To give you an idea of the magnitude of this debt that if it were settled it could have made 3% of USA citizens instant millionaires . lt is some $8,444 trillion in debt . Servicing on an annualized basis equates to $8 trillion ................. ln parallel the % of fed debt owed to its foreign counterparts went from 17% in 1982 to almost 50% in 2006 . So of every dollar lent by the Fed to fund govt is 50% lent by foreign banks . ...............................................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,................... sheeesh if Mr. Chang or Mr.Vengsarker or Mr lvan started selling the $ the USA is fiscally on the road to bankruptcy . .............................................................................................................................................................................Now for some reason the USA treasury abolished the way in which unemployment was calculated . Under the OLD system REAL unemployment rate is a whopping 12.5% and not a fraction of that as under this new system ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,l believe the Fed reserve has been showing signs of such a crash for over a year . ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,On May 27th 2005 i wrote on here that the Federal reserve was confirming a crash of some kind by raising the money supply { M-3 } by chrisis proportions -Up 46.8 billion this past week .What awful calamity do they see ? Something is up This is an UNPRECEDENTED unheard of pre catostrophe M3 expansion ..M3 is up an amount we have never seen before - $155 billion over the past four weeks ....a $2 trillion annualized pace , a 22.2% rate of growth . There must be a crisis of historic proportions coming and the fed reserve bank of the USA is making sure sufficient liquidity in place to protect thier fragile financial system " ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,And that was a year ago ; and things have only worsened ..Another $700 billion added to the trade defacit . And the triggers to this crash ? ..The case for the price per bbl of oil and gas will remain a more than a weeping sore for the USA .With oil prices soaring this past 2 years the Fed will have no alternative but to raise interest rates thus causing millions of home owners to default on mortgages lent on what was then low interest adjustable rate mortgages ....Property values would plummet taking the stock market with it . . This run on the dollar has only compounded the problem by forcing the FED to juste print more dollars leading logically and ultimately to a paper currency with no value and in the process REAL wealth ( Land , Factories,and natural resources would be confiscated and turned over to creditors. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Opec and swing producers like the Russias have already been sellingl thier oil in another or a basket of currencies excluding the dollar ..You would be surprised to know already juste how much oil is discreetly sold in Euros by EVERY OPEC member including the two biggest -Saudi and lran , ln fact Arab states are toying with the notion that must be equally worrisome to Brussels as well as Washington: to sell oil for gold ( the gold dinar } ...lf, and when this happens, the full wrath of the USA, will descend upon the middle east. And thats why it hasnt happened yet . , Stan Goff wrote a splendid essay on this very subject " Persian Peril " { Website http://www.fromthewilderness.com. And it soon appears as if lran is currently being set up as the next domino in the Bush neo cons crusade for democracy in the middle east . But what with Russo/lranian cooperative energy agreements blooming , a US attack on lran could be a trigger for an all out conflict on a scale of the 20th century WARS ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, . .............................................................Another likely trigger would be the collapse of the USA from within as a consequence to the bursting of the mortgage bubble . ...Now that is merely waiting to happen ! , ,,Juste waiting ...................................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,............And the end game ? Americas only remaining strong suit is raw millitary power. and thus it has two options . To decline gracefully from the stage as SOLE superpower , or to use it its millitary to enforce global dominance . Juste as Britain in decline after 1870 resorted to increasingly desperate wars in South Africa and elsewhere for resources the United Sttes is employing its millitary might to advance what it no longer can by econimic blackmail ...........Or HAS the DISASTEROUS OUTCOME OF IRAQ cooled their madness ...Or do they have NO OPTION ? MANY ASK ,,,,,,,................. ...........,, The markets ?? VOLATILE would be an understatement . ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

As I write, FTSE is now down only 50 points after 78 earlier ...... Higher US inflation certainly spooked the markets badly, but potentially much more worrying is the potential default on copper contracts ..... I keep thinking that I have taken plenty of evasive action, only to find that I haven't; I certainly won't be alone.

Polite message for Frenchie ..... Please can you try to write more concise and digestible posts

Its "Blackdays" Brother :-)

If this does turn out to be a bear market rather than a severe correction I cant see it lasting a long time. Historically Bear markets last for between 9 and 10 months, but I cant see that amount of time in the doldrums this time.

One could say that the Top 100 and 250 were fully valued and being pushed by takeover and merger activity , but within the small caps other than the commodity and oils sectors (I see the bubble bursting here and have been well away from the sector for the last 12 months) P/Es have remained fairly low.

Some tech shares and retail shares trade on very cheap P/E multiples. Might have another 14 days of volatility but Im hoping we are going to recover going into late summer.

What a crap week this is ! my portfolio of sm. caps & Aim stocks down this week by 15% and still falling,, this is with shares that were already undervalued and destined for great things.

Think is a classic sell in May and go away situation with the US interest rates and higher inflation a trigger for the sell off...
I think the market will drift down until later in the summer (late Sept.) when the bulls will return to pick up bargains..
In the meantime, until things settle down, I can see a further 10% fall in my portfolio and maybe in the FTS as well !

I'm thinking we might be in for a soggy summer too. Am toying with the idea of experimenting with a covered warrant to bet on the market sinking a bit further, before going bargain hunting after the kerfuffle dies down.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/comment/2006/c060515g.htm?NavLoc=fp_welcomeback&NavFrom=home&NavTo=comment

Not sure which way it'll go. But any negative surprises won't be taken well, and positive RNS's seem to be ignored at the moment. I've been reducing most of my portfolio over the last 2 weeks. Fortunately I disposed of all my miners first (last week). I've reduced my portfolio further today, and I'm now 70/30, cash/equities. If I miss a big rally, so be it. Until I'm convinced there's some strength behind a move up, I'd rather take the safe option. I also think we'll drift over the summer, and less volatility should provide support for a move up again in the Autumn.

Strawbs.

Funny you should post that GF , in this months Quantum Leap ,(and i quote)

Respected fund manager Anthony Bolton of Fidelity has been quoted recently as saying UK shares are too high and headed for a fall.This will have alarmed many investors .My advice is to pay no attention .He may be right ,more likely he is wrong. (unquote) .

Well he's half right ,lets see where we go from here ..

For what it's worth, when looking at FTSE 100, 350, Small Caps and AIM all shares Charts, all are still above the 200 Day Moving Average, though FTSE 100 is fairly close. Sep 05's market correction did not cross this line, but did so in 04. It remains to be seen whether this will be the support, we're not that far away from that testing moment.