< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
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In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
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http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Bought more today ,something i dont usually do. The future looks bright.

A slightly contrarian note from the FT today:
"Successful completion of the Ebok 6 well is an undeniable positive for AFR, given the upgrades in volumes they are booking on the back of it. Still, until I know what the word 'technical' is supposed to mean in the press release, the announcement that gross technical recoverable volumes have increased to 23mmbbl from a pre-drill estimate of 8mmbbl, I cant bring myself to get overly excited. AFR have a justified reputation as one of the most aggressive reserve bookers in the sector (witness the upgrade to reserves on acquisition of Okwok from Addax, despite no wells drilled), and a very high R/P ratio is always a sign of aggressive reserve bookings (remember VPC? Same thing). Given the discrepancy between internal reserve estimates and the recent NSAI independent report, I'll wait for production to come onstream or for independent certification of these reserves before getting excited."

Harry note of caution justified in our opinion as directors have every reason to ramp up reserve estimates as they are sitting on a load of shares.

halifax - is that not generally true? ..... surely you'ld (rightly) be even more circumspect if the directors held very few

cynic recent acquisitions/options give the game away.

Well i've top sliced heavily and taken some good profits. Having watched
bloomberg over the w/end it was reportrd that the most successful
businessman//trader in Singapore believed our markets are due a correction and maybe as nuch as 20%.So i've reduced across the board as a precaution.
cyril

halifax - i nearly always pay attention to your posts, as bye and large they are pretty sensible, unlike mine! ..... i would merely observe, without gainsaying you, that unlike some companies on this bb, at least the options are at a premium to the current sp - which is exactly as it should be

cynic correct, but having experienced the disappointment that was SEY's Chinguetti discovery offshore Mauritania would discount claims of increases in reserves until they have been pumping steadily for a few months.

you sure can't win 'em all, and that applies especially to oil wells, where even the best only reckon a 25% strike rate - hence TLW's amazing record of late

halifax, Chinguetti i remember it well,75kbopd?
cyril

1146 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup nudges up Afren (AFR.LN) target price to 126p from 120p after the company's successful appraisal wells at Ebok-6. Says the Ebok-6 appraisal well has exceeded pre-drill expectations. Citigroup says the news is a strong endorsement of Afren's understanding and interpretation of the Ebok reservoir. Adds that there is considerable upside potential remaining around the Ebok-Okwok complex. The brokerage says Afren remains one of its top picks for '10. Keeps at buy. Shares -3.3% at 102p.

do these pundits know any more than good friend shoddy?
has young shoddy become too cynical in his dotage (young alludes to second childhood perhaps)?

hard to know, but for sure these things are never a smooth ride

what are you on about, think you've lost it now cynic. must be the broth & bromide combination.

cynic bullshit and brains spring to mind.

From Oil Barrel.....................................

January 13, 2010

Afren Rises Again As Ebok-6 Exceeds Pre-Drill Expectations





Shares in Afren plc, which breached the 100 pence a share threshold earlier this month, continued their relentless march upwards this week after the London-listed E&P with big ambitions in Africa scored another reserves triumph on the Ebok field in Nigeria.
Results from the Ebok-6 appraisal well have exceeded pre-drill expectations, with the well finding 107 feet of gross oil pay and boosting the oil-in-place number for the D2 reservoir sands in the southern lobe of the field by a whopping 400 per cent. The shares added another two pence on the news to close at 105.5 pence.

The well has upgraded the volumetrics for the D2 southern lobe to 135 million barrels of oil, of which 23 million barrels is reckoned to be recoverable; pre-drill, the recoverable volume for this portion of the field was just eight million barrels. The success of Ebok-6 has lifted the total 2P recoverable reserve estimate to 116 million barrels, which means the three appraisal wells drilled by Afren on the field have added an incremental 91 million barrels of recoverable oil.

This shows the value a well-resourced and technically clued-up company can bring to these types of so-called marginal discoveries. Ebok, which lies in shallow waters some 50 km offshore, was discovered in the late 1960s by Mobil and appraised in the 1970s. This is still Mobil territory, with the field surrounded by producing ExxonMobil fields that pump some 850,000 bpd. Ebok joined the ranks of undeveloped discoveries discarded by the oil majors as too small to develop and that were later handed out to local companies as the government sought to nurture an indigenous oil industry.

Yet many of these indigenous companies lacked the funding or know-how to bring these finds to market. The smart ones partner up with western companies with the right blend of financial, technical and commercial skills to ensure a successful project. Here, indigenous company Oriental struck gold by pairing up with Afren, an E&P start-up with an impressive management team and ambitions to become a leading pan-African energy company.

Since Afren joined Oriental in the project, the field has grown in materiality. The partners drilled the Ebok-4 appraisal well in late 2008, a well that exceeded pre-drill expectations. The well encountered a total gross oil column of 284 ft in high quality reservoir sands and produced 1,450 bpd under drill stem testing. The oil was 20 to 25-degree API. The partners have since clocked up a 100 per cent strike rate on the field, materially adding to the resource base.

This is no longer a marginal field and work on the first phase of the development got underway last month. The first phase development plan comprises five horizontal oil production wells in the D2 reservoir, one horizontal oil production well targeting the D1 reservoir and one water injection well in the central Fault Block 1 and Fault Block 2 areas of the field. The associated gas will be used to fuel the processing plant and as gas lift to help drive production rates.

All wells will be drilled from a Well-head Support Structure and mobile offshore production unit. The WSS has already been built and is en route to the field and contract discussions for the production facilities are underway.
After the initial development phase, there will be additional work to bring onstream the reserves in the D2 Southern Lobe, the D1 reservoir and Fault Block West. There is also additional upside to appraise, including the potential within the West Flank Qua Iboe structure, the D2 Upside Extension and the Fault Block North, which could bring another 66 million barrels of recoverable reserves to the table.

Production guidance issued earlier this year pointed to fast-track output of 25,000 bpd in early 2010 with full-field development of 50,000 bpd. Given that the company has made a virtue of meeting or beating its targets, there seems every chance this timetable will be met and that next year the company will take yet another significant step towards its production goal of 100,000 bpd by the end of 2012.

hope this one doesn't end up like SEY.

Dont be such a pessimist halifax.

if you lived in halifax, you'ld be pretty glum too!
that said, i no longer pay attention to oilbarrel as i came to the conclusion that the postings were self-serving rather than objective reporting

:-) Still good projections going forward though cynic.

Questor share tip: Afren is a risky buy but there's plenty of upside
Further drilling success in Nigeria has boosted Afren shares this week but there could well be more good news to come.

By Garry White, Questor Editor
Published: 6:30AM GMT 14 Jan 2010

Afren

102p -3


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The company has completed its programme at its offshore Ebok field, with the final well exceeding the group's "pre-drill expectations". The company has therefore increased the recoverable oil figure at Ebok-6 to 23m barrels from 8m barrels. This propelled Afren's shares to a 16-month high. The company still has an active drilling programme in 2010, but you must remember that all drilling programmes carry risk.

The average price target of the 15 analysts monitored by Bloomberg with ratings on the shares is 118p, not much more than the current share price. However, as drilling programmes are "de-risked" this price could move higher. Of the 15 analysts, 13 of them have a "buy" stance on the shares.

Upside remains from the group's 10-well drilling programme in Nigeria, Congo, Ivory Coast and Ghana, which is targeting 600m barrels a day in total.

There is also the chance of acquisitions. When Afren raised 105m in a placing in November, Osman Shahenshah, the company's chief executive, implied that some of the funds could be used for strategic purposes. This week he said that the group was studying a couple of acquisitions.

The shares are up 74pc since their initial recommendation on July 2 at 58p compared with a market up 30pc. The shares are a buy, but investors must consider the inherent risk involved in the oil exploration industry.