Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

emailpat - should have explained it better. That 200ma starts there because that is 200 days after the shares were first listed. It is simply a coincidence. More than likely it simply reversed at a level that was a consolidation area last year.

Aerotus - there's plenty of time and you may get them cheaper yet.

Couldn't resist, bought some more at 60p!

10th July, 2004

The path to true love does not run smoothly, nor, would it seem, does the long and winding road to riches. These are frustrating times for BioProgress shareholders; no one said though that this would be like winning the lottery overnight, more like a few years.

I last made any sort of detailed comment on BioProgress on 7th April, discussing the acquisition of Aquafilm, now BioTech Films LLC, and juggling around with a few numbers. I understand that the market misunderstood the announcement regarding the forecasts for BioTech Films that I first wrote about.

BioProgress state that BioTech is forecasting revenues of around US$50 million in the period 2004 2006. Adding up the forecasts in my initial article for the period 2004 2006 gives revenues of US$54.2 million. What is $4.2 million amongst friends? Converting the US profit of $3 million into pound sterling gives a profit of 1.7 million for 2004, rising to 2.8 million in 2005, and 4.8 million in 2006.

With the financial performance of BioProgress now stabilising as the company moves from the stage of development to commercialisation, the figures in the market from Numis Securities look sensible. In their note dated 23rd June 04, Numis forecast pre-tax profits of 1 million for 2004, rising to 5 million for 2005, EPS for 2005 is therefore 4.4p, putting the company on a 2005 PE of 15.13. For what its worth Numis stance is Hold.

Investors though are still eagerly anticipating the detailed report from house broker Collins Stewart. There have been suggestions that the forthcoming broker note has suggested a fair value of between 130p 140p, valuing the company at between 150 million to 160 million. At this stage that would appear a sensible valuation, and is 100% higher than the current share price. Only time will tell whether the rumoured valuation of BioProgress proves to be right or wrong, but, either way, there can be no guarantees that the share price will react in the way that the broker note might imply it should.

BioProgress have a lot of expectant shareholders, who have been awaiting the broker note from Collins Stewart since early-2004. Whilst it is important to present all the facts, Graham Hind could have been more professional with regard to his timescales. In industry though everything seemingly takes longer than anyone could have first imagined it would, four months for a broker note is pushing things somewhat. Those jigsaw puzzles with the most pieces always do take the longest to complete though, dont they?

The innumerable jigsaw that is BioProgress has seen a few more pieces joined together over the last few months. One of the more important pieces has been the announcement about listing American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on the American NASDAQ.

ADRs were first introduced in 1927, and are simply an allocation of stock in a non-US business. The companys primary listing will remain on AIM, but a proportion of the shares will be brought by an American investment bank who will issue the ADRs on the NASDAQ.

The dual listing on AIM and the NASDAQ will create a more efficient trading platform, especially as there are a significant number of shareholders already based in America, from when the company was listed on the NASD OTC BB.

2004 has seen stronger links forged with America, with licensing agreements signed with FMC BioPolymer, Perrigo and Wyeth for three of the four core XGel technologies, namely NROBE, TABWRAP and SWALLOW. Furthermore the base of BioTech Films LLC (formerly known as Aquafilm) is in Tampa, Florida, USA. It is likely that BioProgress will continue to have further relationships forged in America, and that its reputation will grow further in the pharmaceutical industry. Therefore a dual listing on the NASDAQ will be of importance to the company. It is testament to the rapid progress that BioProgress has made that they have brought forward plans to list on the NASDAQ.

An announcement on 5th July confirmed that Perrigo is the US pharmaceutical company that has signed a global licensing agreement for TABWRAP. Valued at $1,25 billion, NASDAQ listed Perrigo is Americas largest manufacturer of over-the-counter (non-prescription) pharmaceutical and nutritional products sold in supermarkets, chemists, and large merchandise chains across the country.

BioProgress are to receive $900,000 when the first product hits the shelves, which is anticipated for late 2005, although, as always, timescales might slip. Initially TABWRAP is to be applied to a small selection of Perrigos products, expected to be worth between $1 - $1.5 million to BioProgress per year. The company also receive a single-figure percentage royalty, rumoured to be 3%, based on the sales price of all products using the TABWRAP dosage form.

It is worth considering that the OTC market in America has been valued at $10.8 billion (6 billion) per year, of which Perrigo is the market leader. The European market, which Perrigo will also target with TABWRAP, is substantial as well. If, as expected, TABWRAP proves to be the great success that many of us believe it will be, then BioProgress will enjoy a royalty stream in the region of millions of pounds per year rolling into its coffers.

The other significant announcement regarding an XGel family member has been the exclusive licensing option agreement with Wyeth for SWALLOW liquid fill capsule technology. The announcement might be considered disappointing by some, as it does not confirm Wyeths commitment to the technology. On the other hand it is testament to the untold advantages that the XGel technologies bring with them, that $50 billion Wyeth is bothering with a small 70 million British company.

Once again however it is impossible to say exactly when Wyeth might sign on the dotted line to confirm their commitment to SWALLOW. It has to be expected that Wyeth will commit to adopting the SWALLOW liquid fill capsule technology, and plans for Harro Hoefliger to provide the machines have already been made. Once again, the importance in acquiring BioTech Films LLC is evident, with the film being supplied from its base in Tampa, Florida.

14th June saw the strengthening of management in several areas. Alan Clements, the former managing director of Peter Black Healthcare, was appointed as Director of Sales and Marketing. Dr Jason Teckoe took up the position formerly held by Malcolm Brown, that of Technical Director of UK based BioProgress Technology Ltd and of BioTech Films LLC in America. Dr Teckoe is concentrating his efforts most especially on XGel film development. Meanwhile Ed Nowak has been appointed as Director of Research and Development, engaged in the research of new materials and applications.

And so, midway through July, we have a stronger, more advanced BioProgress than ever before, and yet we have a lacklustre shareprice of 65.5p, prices that have not been seen since for seven months. It was Tolstoy I believe who said, The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. Oh how these two most powerful warriors fight away at the beliefs of the private investor. Indeed, the path to true love never does run smoothly.

I hold shares in BioProgress

- Investors in BioProgress might like to visit http://www.mysite2.co.uk. Run by the indefatigable Vernon Gurtner, mysite2 is a collection of the few noteworthy posts appearing on the ADFVN bulletin board these days.
http://www.lemminginvestor.com/BPRGconradwindhamJuly112004.html

Pretty low volume day for BPRG, but negative nonetheless.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. An up day might well make things look very interesting indeed.

Big Al - do you mean as a new short?

aol - NO, not unless it makes new lows IMO. It's dropped too far down the channel and would make a short now far too high risk.

What I was thinking was if it rose tomorrow and created a higher low. Might look interesting and encourage the bulls. If they could then get it into the mid 70's or above, we'd at least have some form of support level - at the moment there isn't any!!

However, it blew through the 60-70p area last week with unheard of ease, when I'd expected a fair bit of consolidation along the way, on high volume. The recent bounce is now proven to be nothing more than a dcb for now

The thing with BPRG is it always overshoots. Look back to May, when it broke 100p. BIG volumes got it to the mid 70's very, very quickly. It bounced, held 80-90p for about amonth and the rest is history.

75p is a very big number now, particularly as it was the break of that which led to the irrational exhuberance of the winter months.

I'm very chuffed my call of the DCB on Monday was entirely correct, though. ;-)))))

Big Al - many thanks for your insight, you were certainly correct on Monday.

up 5%??

SEO down 8% and BPRG up 5%...... Something happening.

Its pretty much a foregone conclusion that BPRG are going to win the court case. Several BPRG/SEO shareholders have been attending the court sessions and providing detailed updates on the day's events (See ADVFN BPRG thread for details).

SEO down 12% today and falling fast. BPRG up 5%.

Yep, glad I hold BPRG, made some money on SEO then switched sometime ago, that looks like a pretty shrewed move at present. Basically the recent postings from the court case are saying that SEO have been changing dates on some correspondance which is not putting the company in good light with the judge. I have not attended court so only quoting other posts.

SEO down and BPRG up. Smart SEO investors will be selling and buying into BPRG. LOL! You know it makes sense!

Big Al - correct again on BPRG - what do you think for tomorrow?

The SEC filing was a good sign and a step towards the NAZ listing, many had thought that it would be further delayed.

From the, perhaps biased, court reports the case with SEO seems to be proceeding favorably for BPRG which should further influence sentiment.

Tomorrow again will be interesting

Good day for the bulls, volume better than yesterday by some margin, but still below the 25 day volume MA I use.

We did make the higher low, but after the initial markup, very little headway occurred. Can't find that overly promising to be honest. On the 2 occasions 62p or better was bid, the volumes increased. I think many called these as buys, but then why did the price retreat so quickly? There are still sellers in quantity and they are being reported as buys. Trade pages ain't worth diddly and despite what people think, MM's run a pretty balanced book overall. Would you want to be skewed one way or the other with 2-3% of the total shares in circulation getting turned over each day? No!

I've got my downtrend channel about 67p. It must regain that to indicate a chance of turning this downtrend around. I've got my short term EMA at 65p and my long term at 83p, both coming down, of course. Personally, it ain't bullish even if the short one turns up. Another week (roughly) will see the longer EMA reach that 75-80p region that must be regained before you can consider it going up IMO.

Overall, it's still down with 75p critical longer term and the money is still heavily on the bears. In fact, Monday's rejection of 70p on the RNS was pretty overwhelming in hindsight and it will be tough to crack that level.

Amazingly, this week's patterns are very similar to last week's. We should see up tomorrow, but doubt it'll finish above 66p. If tomorrow is a down day, then the strong bearish trend we're still in might just take off again.

Fundamentally, can't see the court case really having a bearing on the price. The official announcement is 7 weeks off minimum and we're in the closed period. It's not been able to break the trend on a raft of "good" news. It'll be interesting to see how it fares with none. Also, 9 out of 10 broker's notes are not worth reading, nor do they affect the price overall and most people don't believe the house broker's notes anyway. It's a bit like Bush, Blair and 45 minutes. I also think the Nas thing is a bit iffy. At the moment BPRG is just another AIM-listed biotech with high ambitions and little history with a mkt cap here of 60-odd million. Potential, probably, but this market is very nervous and the Nas has been going down since the start of the year with decreasing volumes since May. I think BPRG are too slow out of the gate.

aol - don't take anything I write as gospel and certainly do not trade it. Sometimes you get "lucky", sometimes you don't. You go on how you read it, but you always know when you will bail if it goes the wrong way. I'm having fun though.

Al
;-))

I believe its the "uncertainty" of the court case which is more of a problem than the actual outcome.

Markets hate uncertainty , quick decision would be in best interests of all parties but an appeal by either side and its back to square one.

Don't use MACD myself but I think its starting to look a bit bullish , maybe someone who does use it could comment - preferably someone not stashed up to the eyeballs with bprg :-)

Higher low definitely bullish, Dil.

Can't see a lot on MACD myself. It's been flat-lining about -4 since mid May. Histogram just been blue all week, but it's been higher. Nothing major IMO.

I can confirm I am not long or short even 1 share! ;-)

Thanks Big Al, Dil

A slow start this morning, seems everyone is waiting for guidance

a nice move up, even CAT claims to be long now!

Big Al, wots going on down ADVFN? Lots of buying? Has the case summaries been given?