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TULLOW OIL--stands for too low!! (TLW)     

moneyplus - 14 Sep 2005 13:17

The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

HARRYCAT - 05 May 2015 12:12 - 695 of 906

Citigroup stays buy on Tullow Oil, target raised to 500p from 433p.

HARRYCAT - 04 Jun 2015 12:13 - 696 of 906

Cantor summary note:
"The last 12 months have been challenging for the oil and gas sector and in particular for Tullow. In order to withstand the current subdued macro environment, the company has increased and diversified its sources of debt capital, reduced its exploration expenditure, implemented significant cost saving initiatives, and suspended its dividend. We believe however that an over reliance on debt to fund risky ventures could prove costly. We initiate coverage with a SELL recommendation and TP of 342p."

HARRYCAT - 20 Jul 2015 07:37 - 697 of 906

StockMarketWire.com
Tullow Oil said gas export from the Jubilee Field to the Ghana Gas plant at Atuabo has been suspended since 3 July 2015 due to technical issues with gas compression systems on the FPSO Kwame Nkrumah and is expected to resume by mid-August.

Oil production is currently constrained to approximately 65,000 bopd and is under constant review but there is no effect on the Field's reservoir or resources.

Tullow has mobilised a team of experts to rectify the fault within the gas compression system and estimates that it will take approximately a further 3 weeks to reinstate gas export and full oil production.

Tullow will review its 2015 production forecast for Jubilee and provide an update on progress at its half yearly results on 29th July.

HARRYCAT - 29 Jul 2015 10:00 - 698 of 906

StockMarketWire.com
Tullow Oil has narrowed its H1 pretax loss to $10m, from a loss of $29m. Sales revenue was $820m, from $1.27b. Interim dividend was nil, from 4p a share.

HIGHLIGHTS
· Financials in line with expectations; impacted by oil price decline with average realised oil price after hedging for 1H 2015 of $70.6/bbl (1H 2014: $106.7/bbl); operating profit of $97 million, up 169% (1H 2014: $36 million) mainly due to a lower exploration write-off of $88 million (1H 2014: $402 million) resulting in reduced loss after tax of $68 million (1H 2014: loss of $95 million).

· Net debt at end 1H 2015 was $3.6 billion with facility headroom and free cash of $2.3 billion; 60% of 2015 entitlement production hedged with an average floor price of $86/bbl; no debt maturities ahead of TEN Project coming on stream.

· 1H 2015 capital expenditure of $783 million (1H 2014 $1,048 million); 2015 full year forecast remains $1.9 billion.

· The Group's restructuring programme has resulted in a significant headcount reduction across the business which, with other related cost savings, will total $500 million over three years. These savings will start to be recognised in 2H 2015 as lower cost allocations are made to G&A, opex and capex.

· 1H 2015 West Africa oil production within guidance averaging 66,500 bopd with Jubilee averaging 105,000 bopd gross; full year guidance remains 66,000-70,000 bopd however gross Jubilee average production is now expected to revert to previous guidance of 100,000 bopd following short term production constraints due to a gas compression issue on the FPSO.

· TEN Project in Ghana c.65% complete; on schedule and on budget for first oil in mid-2016.

· In East Africa, Kenya Extended Well Testing and appraisal drilling continues to underpin resource base; Uganda CGT dispute settled.

· Exploration campaign in 2H 2015 currently focused on Suriname (Spari), Norway (Salander) and Kenya (Cheptuket).

HARRYCAT - 12 Aug 2015 07:55 - 699 of 906

StockMarketWire.com
Tullow Oil said it continues to make good progress in 2015 having reset the business and with continued emphasis on managing costs, capital expenditure and the balance sheet.

"We are also focused on operational efficiency and the Jubilee compressor issue has been resolved ahead of schedule. With production back to normal at Jubilee, we expect to meet our full year production guidance," said CEO Aidan Heavey in a statement.

"Looking forward, we plan to further deleverage the business as we look at non-core assets and our retained equity in our major developments. The decision by the Governments of Uganda and Kenya with regard to the pipeline route will allow this significant project to move into a new technical and commercial phase."

OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:
Jubilee field production - Ghana
Tullow is pleased to report that following the completion of work on the gas compressor on the FPSO Kwame Nkrumah, gas exports from the Jubilee field have resumed ahead of the mid-August forecast. Gas export restarted on 3 August 2015 and has steadily increased to around 100 mmscfd. Oil production has consequently increased and has now returned to previous rates.

East Africa operational update - Uganda and Kenya
Following a state visit to Uganda by His Excellency Uhuru Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya, a joint communiqué from both Governments was issued on 10 August 2015 which stated that, "the two Heads of State agreed on the use of the Northern Route i.e. Hoima-Lokichar-Lamu for the development of the crude oil pipeline." Tullow is pleased the governments of Uganda and Kenya have agreed on a route for the regional crude oil export pipeline. This is a major milestone and Tullow looks forward to working with the Governments and partners on development of the significant discovered oil resources in Uganda and Kenya.

Exploration update - Suriname and Norway
In Suriname, the Spari-1 well in offshore Block 31 is currently being plugged and abandoned. Despite the presence of targeted Campanian turbidite sands in the well no significant hydrocarbon shows were encountered. The well was drilled in 52 metres of water to a total depth of 3,830 metres. Tullow has 30% equity in this INPEX operated block.

In Norway, the Salander well in offshore PL 650 found sandstones with good reservoir properties but no hydrocarbons were encountered at this location. The well was drilled in 350 meters of water to a total depth of 2,439 metres and will be plugged and abandoned. Tullow has 25% equity (subject to final government approval) in this E.ON E&P Norge AS operated licence.

mitzy - 20 Aug 2015 08:21 - 700 of 906

Could fall to 100p here soon.

HARRYCAT - 20 Aug 2015 08:54 - 701 of 906

Good to see you are your usual upbeat self on both PMO & TLW mitzy!!! ;o)

jimmy b - 20 Aug 2015 08:58 - 702 of 906

Great insight and reason as usual :)

mitzy - 23 Aug 2015 19:59 - 703 of 906

Cheers Harry and jimmy you wonder where its all going to end.

cynic - 28 Aug 2015 15:28 - 704 of 906

TLW has been strong for the last couple of days and perhaps longer ..... but then so has PMO and perhaps a few other oilies

however, IG indicates very heavy volume today 11m+ though i don't know what has happened in the recent past

quite probably something of nothing, but perhaps worth keeping an eye on

jimmy b - 28 Aug 2015 16:05 - 705 of 906

cynic do you use IG for spreads or CFD's ?

cynic - 28 Aug 2015 16:08 - 706 of 906

yes ..... i only trade CFDs though used to have s/b

jimmy b - 28 Aug 2015 16:10 - 707 of 906

Ok i wondered how you were seeing volume ,it can't show you that with spreads .

cynic - 28 Aug 2015 16:57 - 708 of 906

fyi, close to 16m by close

HARRYCAT - 14 Sep 2015 16:38 - 709 of 906



Investec note:
"Tullow has reached a tipping point and can choose either to be passive, hoping the oil price rises, or it can raise fresh equity. We advocate the latter and see recapitalisation followed by an asset sale (e.g. East Africa) as the only way to correct Tullow’s flagging investment case. The shares however remain overvalued and we therefore retain our Sell. Despite this, Tullow’s old exploration model is worth backing at the right price (sub 175p). In short, we believe Tullow should raise now and regain the initiative before it’s too late.
The case for recapitalisation. In our view, Tullow needs to refocus its narrative back to exploration as fast as it can. Otherwise, its investment case will remain impaired until its debt falls at the end of the decade. A capital injection would be the first step in this process. New equity would also reduce near-term balance sheet risk, strengthen its bargaining position in asset sales and reduce funding costs, facilitating capital allocation back to exploration and to Ghana.
Go hard or go home. Half measures at this juncture just won’t do. Tullow needs to raise a significant chunk of change (c.$750m) and exit East Africa in order to fully deleverage. An equity raise on its own would not derisk the balance sheet or correct the investment case. Equally, asset sales without a strengthened balance sheet are unlikely to yield competitive pricing. A raise followed by an asset sale is therefore the only option, in our view.
The price is wrong. As with its peers, Tullow’s valuation already discounts a recovery in oil prices (i.e. the forward curve). This is too high and we believe any new equity should only be introduced at a level below our RENAV (176p). If not, new investors are not being commensurately compensated for the risks taken.
The case for Tullow. At the right price, we believe investors should support a Tullow raise if one is offered! We argue this because we believe Tullow applies the right approach to exploration. Moreover, we don’t believe it’s too late to save the story. Action is however necessary now!"

jimmy b - 01 Oct 2015 08:43 - 710 of 906

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5123873

HARRYCAT - 01 Oct 2015 17:43 - 711 of 906

Credit Suisse summary:
"The RBL is based on two fundamental inputs to the cash flow model underpinning the loan: (i) reserves, and (ii) the lenders’ price deck (typically, here in Europe very conservative), but other variables are also factored in. Often the reserve base used in Europe is 2P for producing and 1P on development reserves, with elements of ‘risking’ applied. The price deck each lender uses is an important input for an RBL, where the price often represents a long-term view and can be the expected floor price. These are likely in the range of $45-60/bbl or thereabouts to 2017 and around $60-65/bbl longer term. While the long-term oil price used by TLW’s lending banks may have been slightly revised downwards, its impact was likely offset by additional reserves on Jubilee, previously risked due to suboptimal downstream infrastructure.
Valuation: Our TP is set at our risked NAV of 380p. We do not expect TLW to move forward with East Africa (EA) unless it can bring in a new partner, and a different approach to TEN, and with that we see the timeline of FID slip by a year or so. We also do not think it is correct to remove any value for East Africa as these barrels sit on the lower end of the cost curve and should be developed over the medium term. Using the value implied in AOI’s shares and applying this risking to TLW’s EA portfolio – its key pre-FID resource base – and keeping the rest unchanged we estimate gives TLW a value of ~280p."

oilyrag - 02 Oct 2015 12:29 - 712 of 906

Hi cynic, long time no speak. You still doing cfd's. What are your favourite stocks at the moment.

cynic - 02 Oct 2015 14:35 - 713 of 906

now there's a blast from the past :-)

depends on sector, but like AFC for long term and ditto MBH which has been doing very nicely, but that's no trading stock
DOM has served me very well and i also hold RTN which i feel should be much stronger
WPP is imo a must for anyone's core portfolio
i also like EZJ but am tempted to add or even switch to RYA, though i'ld never ever fly with them!

oilyrag - 02 Oct 2015 14:43 - 714 of 906

Talking of EZJ I wish i'd bought at 1.33ish way back. Not to worry plenty of other fish in the sea.
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