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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


ladder.gifBA_Logo.gif


How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 13:27 - 6960 of 10502

laid it for some more in running :-)

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 13:28 - 6961 of 10502

wish id laid private be - another 1.01 turned over

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 13:28 - 6962 of 10502

36k matched at 1.01

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 13:30 - 6963 of 10502

thats over 45k (90k matched) down the swanny on two 1.01s today - someones gonna being having a cold xmas

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 13:46 - 6964 of 10502

If you lay a horse at 5.6 and it drfits to 12.0 before the off do you bother to green up?

i have taken my stake back but almost feel like should have just let it run

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 13:47 - 6965 of 10502

traded at 1000s half way into the race lol - very suspect

Scripophilist - 14 Dec 2005 15:33 - 6966 of 10502

"do you bother to green up"

I do but only because I know nothing about horses. But you suspect that it would work equally well over a long period of time by not greening up.

I have been revisiting the market this week with some automation to test some generic theories and will continue in the new year. I suspect if a horse drifts from the price you lay it the expectancy is positive over the long term.

Scripophilist - 14 Dec 2005 15:34 - 6967 of 10502

Not having a bad day over here as long as I don't mess up the last!

Scripophilist - 14 Dec 2005 15:41 - 6968 of 10502

Just squared up on the last, didn't think I was going to find a position but managed to sneak one in.

Made money on all but the 12:10, 12:50 & 15:30, 13/16

Bugz - 14 Dec 2005 15:50 - 6969 of 10502

"I suspect if a horse drifts from the price you lay it the expectancy is positive over the long term. "

What do u mean script?

Scripophilist - 14 Dec 2005 15:54 - 6970 of 10502

You will make more than you lose by letting the position run into the market, possibly.

Bugz - 14 Dec 2005 16:28 - 6971 of 10502

Ah ok.....

Ur lay is fixed, but if u leave it open without greening up u'll make more than the liability from the lay?

I dont get it sorry!

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 16:31 - 6972 of 10502

bugz

what scrip means is if you do it enough times to get a fair sized sample, you will have a few big loses and lots of wins compared to lots of smaller wins only but the former scenario will add up to more in total

ie if you let a 100 of these type bets run then over the long term youll win slightly more than if you greened them all up, though obviously you will take some hits along the way (and hence have a far more volatile p&l)

Bugz - 14 Dec 2005 17:16 - 6973 of 10502

Right right - got it sorry. I didnt appreciate it was bets plural.

Scripophilist - 14 Dec 2005 19:16 - 6974 of 10502

Acknowledgement of why I generally don't trade in these markets

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4528700.stm

Scripophilist - 14 Dec 2005 20:15 - 6975 of 10502

Anybody on the footy?

bakko - 14 Dec 2005 20:20 - 6976 of 10502

Evening Scrip,

No, not yet.

ManU is too skinny so will wait.

Harlosh - 14 Dec 2005 20:25 - 6977 of 10502

Think I'll lay United. LOL

cunningham - 14 Dec 2005 20:25 - 6978 of 10502

I'm looking at the footy, it's been a while since I've traded any. I think Wigan are playing better than there odds suggest.

Fundamentalist - 14 Dec 2005 20:27 - 6979 of 10502

Evening all

not involved as yet but been watching the Bolton game and will lay them just before half time if still 0-0

Wigan odds look huge to me
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