Sharesmagazine
 Home   Log In   Register   Our Services   My Account   Contact   Help 
 Stockwatch   Level 2   Portfolio   Charts   Share Price   Awards   Market Scan   Videos   Broker Notes   Director Deals   Traders' Room 
 Funds   Trades   Terminal   Alerts   Heatmaps   News   Indices   Forward Diary   Forex Prices   Shares Magazine   Investors' Room 
 CFDs   Shares   SIPPs   ISAs   Forex   ETFs   Comparison Tables   Spread Betting 
You are NOT currently logged in
 
Register now or login to post to this thread.

Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 08:39 - 697 of 1009

FV

read a bit on ADVFN this am - a lot of blinkers around. Far too many on there have "fallen in love with RTD". I bet if they looked at the reasons they bought into RTD very few of those reasons still exist. Dont get me wrong, I still think its a decent company but as an investor the management have taken it in the opposite direction to the one i would want - ie away from high growth CNP as the core business and too heavily towards the lower margin fuel card business which in my book is almost a utility, and there are better utility plays out there currently.

Fred1new - 03 Mar 2006 09:19 - 698 of 1009

May be better fish ion the sea.

Have not read the results in depth yet.

The market seems a little disappointed, so am I.

Looking briefly at pattern of directors and institutional b/s and there was quite a lot of buys from November 2005 on.

Not certain yet

Sitting on averall of about 340%.

I will have my coffee, and try and make sense of the results.

Sorry Douggie, hoped fro better.

boxerdog - 03 Mar 2006 09:40 - 699 of 1009

FUND, must admit i expected more! this time, as i got back in a couple of weeks ago.I too may have been guilty of wearing blinkers to some extent.
You have been proved right in this instance.Your also bang on Re.ADVFN. post at your peril site.

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 09:46 - 700 of 1009

Thanks boxer

Its a shame as having made good profits a few years back on these i genuinely thought this was going to be a great longer term growth story via the CNP business. The amount of contracts they were signing and the marketplace implied massive growth potential in this area, yet they werent backed up by last years results and to me the same scenario has been repeated.

I always try to keep a note of why I buy or sell a share and revisit this everytime results come out. I then make a decision as to whether this still holds. If it doesnt then i look to see if there are new reasons which replace the original ones that i am happy with - has served me pretty well over the years

Douggie - 03 Mar 2006 09:59 - 701 of 1009

Mournin all......hopes not realised !... :-[

I have felt the wrath of the ADVFN fan club...especialy their ramper in chief Christeth ... ;-/

55011 - 03 Mar 2006 11:08 - 702 of 1009

Douggie, a couple of years back I went to RTD's AGM. It was an interesting session, business wise.

Later that day, three other people posted their view of the AGM (on ADVFN boards), being attendees also. It was a lesson in interpretation, shall we say.

Also at the meeting there was someone who went on and on asking questions for a full 45 minutes. He was dealt with courteously and patiently by the company chairman. The rest of the meeting was getting very fidgety, it being well past lunchtime by then.

One day I shall ask RTD's "ramper in chief" if it was he. Meanwhile he has been on my filter list for some time. His incessant posts have become devalued by their inevitability.


Audire altere partem. Hear the other side. It is good advice, and I much prefer a sensible two way debate of both pros and cons.


Whither RTD now? Hard to say as the character of the business has changed significantly. There is also the little matter of some litigation yet to be finalised. I wonder if that is connected with the shift in the company's strategy.

Fred1new - 03 Mar 2006 12:22 - 703 of 1009

Might lighten the load a little.

Read the accounts, To complicated for me.

Sniffed around. There is this summary, but I think it a little optimistic.

Ratio of B/S slightly improved with a few reasonable sized buys



Retail Decisions sounds optimistic
Date: Friday 03 Mar 2006

LONDON (ShareCast) - Card fraud prevention firm Retail Decisions said it was optimistic going forward after it managed to refocus its business as new Chip & Pin technology ate away at its traditional business.

The advent of Chip & PIN for credit and debit card transactions has had a high profile impact on consumer's retail experience and on the level of fraud experienced in such transactions.

Retail Decisions said it was already aware back in 2000 of the likely impact Chip & PIN would have on its business. Revenues from its card present contract have declined and the contract has now ceased completely.

Retail Decisions is still seeing strong growth from card not present business as the appetite for buying over the phone and internet continues to boom.

The group reported a pre-tax profit up 31% to 8.0m for the year to December from 6.1m a year earlier, on revenue up 72% to 54.7m. Basic EPS surged 29% to 9.09p per share.

Chief executive Carl Clump said, We enter 2006 with optimism. We have great businesses, excellent people and significant opportunities. Trading in the new financial year has started encouragingly.



zscrooge - 03 Mar 2006 13:21 - 704 of 1009

I wonder if the other side worry about the opinions on this board? Their ramper in chief can be somewhat excessive but is treated with mild amusement by those who understand and, to be fair to him, he has held firm when all around short termers were predicting the collapse of the company and general gloom and doom re the cybersource cc.

It's fallen a few pence on results day -wow. Still holding from just over 5p and it will reach 2 in the medium term. Maybe not an oily but 8x in3 years or so is sensible.

pachandl - 03 Mar 2006 13:23 - 705 of 1009

I have to agree with most of the posters this morning. A little bit surprised by the comment in the above "Sharecast comment": Retail Decisions is still seeing strong growth from card not present business as the appetite for buying over the phone and internet continues to boom. I cannot see that RTD have generated that much of an increase in profit for that type of activity. As I said before (and others have said since) RTD is becoming a bit of a safe "utility".

As for future direction, there have been some posts today that have been critical of RTD's recent change of direction. Perhaps we should recognise that we might have all been wrong to assume that CNP was a high growth sector or, more accurately, that CNP was a high profit-generating sector.

Fundamentalist - 03 Mar 2006 13:44 - 706 of 1009

Fair point pach,

i guess i mildly criticised the mgmt because they are taking the company in a direction that didnt suit me, that doesnt mean its wrong, but equally it also means they will have quite a large change in shareholder base as the new strategy may not well fit with that of those previously invested

as for CNP not being profitable, have to admit im not convinced

Zscrooge

8 times in any investment is a good thing. Like you i was in this at single digits and to be honest am glad i sold last year. Its part in my portfolio was as a higher risk, high growth play which it isnt anymore - part of the problem with what is effectively a hybrid company like this is that it is actually difficult calculate fair value as it has no direct comparators and the results dont give quite enough info to value it as two separate entities.

Dont doubt it'll get to 2, more a case of how long it will take for me and that timescale could well be a year + imo

Douggie - 03 Mar 2006 17:47 - 707 of 1009

What do we do now ........... be patient ...look fwd. to Sept. .............. !! ;o\

biffa18 - 04 Mar 2006 10:04 - 708 of 1009

DOUGIE unless you r thousands out of pocket you would be better selling up a few and buying a couple of million pcm (cost of peanuts ) or any other share ,i know it is a vry spec share but the interest in it is massive and any news it shoots up i bought 5mill the other week and sold made 100% profit i still hold 12mil ........... shares like rtd are ok but vry overhyped, safe over a period of time possibly but it looks like they changing course a bit which will unsettle a few i think .unless there is any take over talk of course not likely at the moment tho ..this is not a ramp for pcm as stated i hold alot of them im trying to get the idea that holding on can be a vry dang thing as i think this share will go down more before maybe recovering on better news imo

Fred1new - 04 Mar 2006 13:14 - 709 of 1009

On having another look at the accounts, although I was disappointed I don't think they are that bad, in fact they appear pretty good and I think should support a SP of 180p. The overall trend is still good and the prices within the last 5mths trading channel. Some of the indicators are a slightly less positive. For now I am holding and would expect the 180 over next few months. IMHO.

Fred1new - 04 Mar 2006 13:38 - 710 of 1009

PS PCM Before you consider buying have a look at Charts, I think they are horrific, Somebody may say they have bottom and breaking out looking at the recent SP its is breaking back. I will believe the break up if I see it. The Fundamentals are also appalling (IMHO). Turnover, EPS and profits down, down, down. The market size is about 500 and I would expect the spread is colossal and frequently changed. (about 20%)

The hope was the company was the new Chinese CEO (2004). I would think it is being bought with optimism or similar emotion.


biffa18 - 04 Mar 2006 14:44 - 711 of 1009

FRED..........yep totaly agree re pcm boom or bust ,my point was really holding on to shares when u are way out of pocket is a dodgy game and the trend /sentiment is very up and down as is rtd iv traded this share for sometime now but only for quick returns i dont consider this a safe share by any means (not holding ) ! i think this will go down some more yet (1.30 ish short term)as i think the good results (or supposed to be ) was already in the price and some will take their losses/profits and go into more interesting things !........imho

boxerdog - 05 Mar 2006 18:11 - 712 of 1009

Interesting artical in todays M.O.SUNDAY.Midas states he "STILL" likes the look of RTD.And suggests we hold on. He afterall made a fair job of predicting contents of results in advance.
BD.

Fred1new - 05 Mar 2006 18:49 - 713 of 1009

Boxer Any chance of cutting and pasting article?

boxerdog - 05 Mar 2006 18:57 - 714 of 1009

Sorry Fred, you are talking to a complete technophobe !! I thought cutting and pasting was something they did at nursery school.

zscrooge - 05 Mar 2006 19:19 - 715 of 1009

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/columnists/article.html?in_article_id=407408&in_page_id=19&in_author_id=1822

Retail Decisions, the card payment technology company, ended the week down 1p at 146p, despite reporting a strong rise in profits for 2005. Results released last week showed pre-tax profits of 8m, up from 6.1m, and earnings per share of 9.09p, up from 7.06p. We tipped the company at 147p last month and we still like the look of it. Again, we suggest that you hold on.

Fred1new - 06 Mar 2006 09:01 - 716 of 1009

Boxer, it was. We must have been in the same class!
Register now or login to post to this thread.