Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

1 min Hils.
I a looking at the traders chart...
which is now giving me a narrow range of play
from 1.9620 to just under 1.9700

the rounded bottom and long tails of the last 4-5 bars gives me cause to be slighly optimistic

Hopes dashed again

I'm short.... so I guess it's safe to go long :-0

Watch your stops around 1330 and 1400 (UK Time) when we get
the US CPI and TICS data. If they're too far out of whack with
concensus estimates then expect some volatile trading in all asset
classes. (imho).

MACD on the 10-minute levelling off and possibly starting to turn up, but stochs still heading firmly down although oversold. No need to do anything yet imo except to tighten the stops on the shorts ahead of the data.


[13:02 Data on Tap - CPI, Real Earnings, IP and Cap U, TICS] Boston, December
15. With the NY Fed having to formally release their Empire State Manufacturing
Survey yesterday afternoon (See 42300 ), the 13:30 time stamp is less cluttered.
Still, along with CPI come real earnings, which should slow dramatically after
gains of 1.0% and 1.3% in the two prior months, at 13.6% annual rate. Keep in
mind, there is also TIC data at 14:00, though IFR does neither surveys nor
forecasts for this series. In October, foreigners bought $53.7 bln in US
assets. Custody holdings have shown steady, large advances in foreign purchases
of Agency securities.
[Consumer Prices (Nov)] IFR expects no change in the all-items CPI and a
0.2% increase in the core index. The most significant benefits of the retreat in
energy prices have already been felt and toward the end of November commodity
prices had built a base of support to move higher. The housing index, which was
unchanged between September and October should prevent any increases in the
headline CPI and could post its first decline since April 2003. As housing
represents more than 40% of the total index, there could be a small drop in the
headline index even without a third straight drop in the transportation index
owing to lower fuel charges.
Commodities prices fell by 1.6% between October 2005 and October 2006, the
most in any 12-month period in the last 4.5 years. But services prices (+3.4%
y/y) remain elevated beyond the Fed's comfort level. A year-ago core CPI print
above 2.8% would spook the bond market while a print below would hardly soothe
it.
[Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Nov)] IFR sees no change in
industrial production in November. In October, we expected a 0.2% drop but our
call was overtaken by gains in mining and utilities, up 0.6% and 4.1%,
respectively. Manufacturing output, representing 87% of all industrial
production, declined 0.2% in October, generally as expected. Excluding motor
vehicles and parts, manufacturing output rose 0.1% in October.
Capacity use edged higher by 0.1 pp in October to 82.2%, though the factory
use rate declined for a second straight month. Capacity use in manufacturing
slowed to 80.7%, a 5-month low. Thanks to the profitability of petroleum
extraction, capacity use in mining stood at a 65-month high in October but is
seen moderating over the next several months.
DATE TIME RELEASE UNIT PER IFR Est PREV MEDIAN RANGE
15Dec 13:30 CPI %m/m Nov 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.3
15Dec 13:30 CPI Core %m/m Nov 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3
15Dec 13:30 Industrial Prod %m/m Nov 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2
15Dec 13:30 Capacity Util. %,AR Nov 82.2 82.2 82.1 82.0 82.3

Hmmmmm. The Ruskies were allegedly buying large slugs of fiber a few minutes before the data was released. Cue the conspiracy theorists.

:o)

I bet they've sold the squeeze now.

Told you to go long :-(

Thanks SC :-)

Well I sold at my trigger of 1.9565 but not looking to day trade looking to catch the medium / longer term trends.

Trailing 100 stop loss.

happy GBP/Yen short here but why can't I concentrate on more than one cross at a time? Plenty of volatility

Evening.
Last missive of the week to Miss M. The folk who are going to be giving
her the deciding interviews for the Investment Banks are back off their Hols,
but they haven't told her if they'll be seeing her before Xmas or not yet.
So she's holding fire in London until Friday before coming home for Xmas.
I'm more nervous than she is. You'ld think it was me going for the
position, not her! She's not bothered either way!
Yoof, eh? Doncha just love it. :-)

Great to see some more folk on here saying why they're taking positions.
I like to hear other folk's perspectives. You're always learning in this game.

Last stuff of the week below.
Now for a well earned rest. :-)

Mel:

So Miss M is in the Catherine Tate role: "Am I bovvered?"

Best of luck to her, if she's taken all the paternal tutoring in, she's well prepared.

MM

Cheers MM, she deserves a break after what she's been through the
past 5yrs.
Maybe it was being so close to death and living under its shadow every
day is what gives her the Catherine Tate attitude.
There's probably a good message there for the rest of us.

Anyway, fingers and toes crossed. :-))

Nicole Elliott, Mizuho Corporate Bank, on Cable:

"Consolidating a lot more neatly than some other currency pairs in what is very much corrective mode. It is an A, B, C-type move where C equals 61 percent of A. Cable is no longer overbought and momentum is still bullish. Ballooning open interest is a little scary. For this morning expect consolidation between $1.9500 and $1.9650."

Closed 1/3 of my position at 1.9465 , trailing stop loss on rest now moved to 1.9540.

Evening.
First missive of the week to Miss M.
I can't be bothered with Oil at the moment. When it breaks the range
I've been showing, or if we get a significant news item, then we'll
comment on it.

Being weighing stuff up, and if the data releases this week don't change
anything, I'm looking to get a long / position (as near to 0.6700 as possible),
for a longer term hold for 2007.
I'm looking for the interest rate differential to close and Sterling to weaken generally
against crosses other than the Dollar (don't know which way to call the Dollar).
Anyone else got a view on this cross?

Mel,

Sorry a bit too busy to post in detail or give detailed reasons, but:

a) Chunnel's like watching paint dry. I'd give it a wide berth personally. Cable & Sterling/Yen are where the parties are at.
b) There's a tasty falling resistance line on your Dollar Index chart passing down through the highs since mid-October. I would've thought that the World, his wife and their pet poodle are going to be spraying the damn thing all over the shop as soon as it gets within touching distance of it. That could also coincide with a break of US Crude to the topside of the range at $64.

Thanks for the reply, Hilary.
The Sterling/ Yen cross sounds interesting, especially with the sentiment
leaning towards a BOJ interest rate rise circa February and my leanings
towards Sterling topping out against crosses other than the Dollar.

I'll check it out.

I have now moved stop loss to 1.9515