The golden rules of Cheltenham betting.

http://www.chart-breakouts.co.uk/cheltenham%20special.htm

TTT

With Cheltenham upon us it is very easy to get sucked into the hype and overlook value The legendary John P McManus whos Binocular is as short as 5/4 for the Champion Hurdle with some companiesI would lay himthe field at slightly odds on looks better valueHe should run a good racehas the form in the bookbut one statistic I do not like is the record of 5yosif you take last years winner Katchit out of the equation you have to go back many years to find another 5yo winnermost fancied 5yo and best placed that have bombed include:- 2007 Detroit City (USA) SP 6/4F 6th 2006 Faasel (IRE) SP 16/1 8th 2005 Essex (IRE) SP 9/1 12th 2004 Golden Cross (IRE) SP 40/1 7th 2003 Santenay (FR) SP 33/1 9th 2002 Bilboa (FR) SP 14/1 3rd and you can go back many more years to find success.Agreed not that many have been fancied over this timebut that tells a story in itself
Here are a couple against the favourite that I like very muchPUNJABI at around 33/1 and of course the resilient little Katchet 18/1 betfairmy true price on these two is almost half the above quoted oddsand may well prove an easy trade please dyor

I never recommend favs. or short prices
Please use this info to help your own judgement

Good luck

One for you Tabby

2:05 I'm So Lucky

Jeff.did that selection derive from your hairpinyour hatpinor your nappy pin?I have one for youand selected with great thought and research.WIND INSTRUMENT Cheltenham 2-40

Some picks from me for the first day. I wont be backing all of them and it wouldnt be unusual for me to change my mind on 1 or two on the day.

1:30 MEDERMIT
2:05 TATENEN
2:40 STAR DE MOHAISON
3:20 SUBLIMITY
4:00 GARDE CHAMPETRE
4:40 CHOMBA WOMBA

Jeffnext time try using a sharp pin.. I'm So Lucky 2:05 is a non n/rhave you tried spin the wheel?

Tabby

Jeffwho have you violated this time?hope it wasnt the Farmers daughter?

As someone told me the names just job out at you like jeff i will not backing all of
them its going to be a lucky 15 for me
1.30 LEOS LUCKYSTAR
2.05 IMSINGINGTHEBLUES
2.40 HOT WELD OR PASTY HALL HAVE NOT MADE MY MIND UP YET
3.20 WON IN THE DARK
4.00 PASS ME BY
4.40 OSCAR REBEL

JUST THINK PADDYPOWER KNOCKING THE ODDS FROM 33/1 TO 20/1 IF THERE A GOD?

Tabby
Any other N/R

NON RUNNERS 1:30 Aachen (1), 2:05 Im So Lucky (11), 2:40 Hobbs Hill (6), 2:40 Lothian Falcon (23), 3:20 Sizing Europe (20)

GOING: Old course ... GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places)... Cross-Country course ... GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places)

WEATHER (Sunny spells but also a fair amount of cloud with a scattering of showers... gentle north-westerly winds)

Thks, cant get any sporting websites on work PC

Trade paper prices
WILLIAMHILL.COM SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1-30

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Cousin Vinny, 9/2 Torphichen, 10/1 Go Native, 10/1 Kempes, 12/1 Micheal Flips, 14/1 Ainama, 14/1 Medermit, 14/1 Red Moloney, 16/1 Aachen, 16/1 Copper Bleu, 25/1 Golan Way, 25/1 Kangaroo Court, 40/1 Shoreacres, 40/1 Somersby, 66/1 Leo's Lucky Star, 66/1 Shamari, 100/1 Alarazi, 100/1 Leamington Lad, 150/1 Gloucester, 500/1 Bee Sting, 500/1 Intensifier.
----------------
IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 2-05

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Tatenen, 5/1 Calgary Bay, 8/1 I'msingingtheblues, 9/1 Forpadydeplasterer, 10/1 Planet Of Sound, 12/1 Kalahari King, 12/1 Tartak, 14/1 Golden Silver, 16/1 Follow The Plan, 16/1 Original, 20/1 Made In Taipan, 33/1 Cornas, 33/1 Gauvain, 33/1 Panjo Bere, 40/1 Bringbackthebiff, 150/1 Cheating Chance, 150/1 Cool Operator.
-----------------------
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 2-40

BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Wichita Lineman, 8/1 Possol, 10/1 Millenium Royal, 10/1 Patsy Hall, 10/1 Star De Mohaison, 11/1 Cailin Alainn, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 16/1 Maljimar, 16/1 Nenuphar Collonges, 20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 Golden Flight, 20/1 Simon, 20/1 Tot O'Whiskey, 25/1 Wind Instrument, 33/1 Comply Or Die, 33/1 Lacdoudal, 33/1 Oedipe, 33/1 Reveillez, 33/1 The Sawyer, 40/1 Ollie Magern, 50/1 Hot Weld, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 66/1 Fundamentalist.
------------------------

SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 3-20

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Binocular, 8/1 Celestial Halo, 10/1 Osana, 14/1 Crack Away Jack, 14/1 Katchit, 16/1 Whiteoak, 20/1 Ashkazar, 20/1 Sublimity, 25/1 Brave Inca, 25/1 Punjabi, 25/1 Sentry Duty, 33/1 Harchibald, 33/1 Jered, 33/1 Won In The Dark, 40/1 Muirhead, 40/1 Snap Tie, 66/1 Ebaziyan, 100/1 Blue Bajan, 100/1 Hardy Eustace, 100/1 River Liane, 150/1 Othermix, 500/1 Alph, 500/1 Cybergenic.
------------------------

GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 4-00

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 L'Ami, 3/1 Garde Champetre, 7/1 Dix Villez, 10/1 Wonderkid, 12/1 Drombeag, 14/1 A New Story, 16/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 20/1 Pass Me By, 25/1 Puntal, 33/1 Florida Dream, 40/1 Ivoire De Beaulieu, 40/1 Jaspers Dream, 50/1 Benefit Night, 50/1 Crystal D'Ainay, 50/1 Dreux, 50/1 He's The Gaffer
----------------------

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 4-40

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Quevega, 4/1 United, 13/2 Chomba Womba, 10/1 Give It Time, 10/1 Oscar Rebel, 14/1 Carole's Legacy, 20/1 Dansimar, 20/1 Gaspara, 25/1 Over Sixty, 25/1 Sweetheart, 33/1 Amber Brook, 33/1 Aura About You, 33/1 Megans Joy, 50/1 Helens Vision, 50/1 Issaquah, 50/1 Pagan Starprincess, 100/1 How's Business, 100/1 Shenanigan, 100/1 Wychwoods Legend, 150/1 Gallileo Figaro, 200/1 Purely By Chance.

Most backed
15203 betsBinocular3.20Chel12144 betsCousin Vinny1.30Chel7866 betsDenman3.20Chel6624 betsKauto Star3.20Chel5819 betsKatchit3.20Chel5589 betsCelestial Halo3.20Chel5221 betsTatenen2.05Chel4646 betsRed Moloney1.30Chel4531 betsTorphichen1.30Chel4094 betsKempes1.30Chel
Last updated 1.11pm

Ruby Walsh had a nightmare on Tatenen. Good reason not to back favourites in big fields.
Forpaddytheplasterer wins @8-1
Kalahari King 2nd @ 8-1

Where did your money go?
13:30 Cheltenham?
Pos
1 Go Native (IRE) 12/1 6 11 - 7 P Carberry
N Meade
139
held up rear of mid-division, hit 3 out, smooth headway next, good run on inner to lead soon after, hit last, driven out
2 nk Medermit (FR) 12/1 5 11 - 7 R Thornton
A King
140
mid-division, stumbled on bend after 5th, headway next, ridden after 2 out, staying on when not fluent and hampered last, finished strongly
3 2 3/4 Somersby (IRE) 40/1 5 11 - 7 D Elsworth
Miss H C Knight
130
mid-division on outer, hit 3 out, headway next, soon ridden, stayed on well from last, snatched 3rd final strides
4 hd Copper Bleu (IRE) 14/1 7 11 - 7 R Johnson
P J Hobbs
139
in touch, challenged after 3 out, ridden and every chance after next, kept on but no extra from last, lost 3rd final strides
5 1 1/2 Cousin Vinny (IRE) 9/4 Fav 6 11 - 7 Mr P W Mullins
W P Mullins
151
in touch, ridden into 3rd after 2 out, hung left when mistake last, kept on but no extra
6 hd Red Moloney (USA) 11/1 5 11 - 7 Denis O'Regan
J Howard Johnson
137
in touch, not fluent 3 out, ridden after 2 out, stayed on same pace from last
7 7 Shoreacres (IRE) 25/1 6 11 - 7 K Renwick
B G Powell
133
chased clear leader, joined leaders 5th, led 2 out, soon ridden and headed, weakened last
8 3 Ainama (IRE) 14/1 5 11 - 7 A P McCoy
N J Henderson
138
chased clear leader, led and hit 5th, headed 2 out, soon ridden, weakening when hit last
9 1 Torphichen 7/1 2Fav 4 10 - 13 A J Mcnamara
D Pipe
144
in touch, not fluent 4th, ridden after 2 out, weakened last
10 1 1/4 Micheal Flips (IRE) 9/1 5 11 - 7 M D Grant
Andrew Turnell
139
mid-division, ridden after 3 out, soon one pace
11 6 Golan Way 28/1 5 11 - 7 J Goldstein
Miss S West
138
led, blundered 4th, headed next, ridden after 3 out, soon weakened
12 4 Kempes (IRE) 9/1 6 11 - 7 R Walsh
W P Mullins
138
tracked leaders, mistake 1st, ridden after 3 out, soon weakened
13 2 3/4 Shamari (FR) 66/1 5 11 - 7 Christian Williams
P F Nicholls
137
mid-division, hit 3rd, weakened approaching 3 out
14 6 Leo's Lucky Star (USA) 50/1 7 11 - 7 t T Scudamore
D Pipe
138
held up towards rear, some progress after 3 out, weakened after 2 out
15 4 Kangaroo Court (IRE) 25/1 5 11 - 7 Jack Doyle
Miss E C Lavelle
135
always towards rear
16 16 Gloucester 150/1 6 11 - 7 J Kington
M Scudamore
125
hit 4th, always towards rear, tailed off
17 22 Bee Sting 250/1 5 11 - 7 D Laverty
Mrs L Williamson
-
always behind, tailed off
18 29 Intensifier (IRE) 200/1 5 11 - 7 S E Durack
D L Williams
110
always behind, tailed off
PU Alarazi (IRE) 100/1 5 11 - 7 J E Moore
T G Mills
-
always behind, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out
PU Leamington Lad (IRE) 150/1 6 11 - 7 b P J Brennan
N A Twiston-Davies
128
mistake 5th, always behind, pulled up before 3 out
Aachen Non Runner

What a rideby A.P..Wichita Lineman... price in running 59/1

Where did your money go?
14:05 Cheltenham?

Pos
1 Forpadydeplasterer (IRE) 8/1 7 11 - 7 B J Geraghty
T Cooper
152
always prominent, hit 4th,led 7th to 8th, led when hit 3 out, driven flat, just held on
2 shd Kalahari King (FR) 8/1 8 11 - 7 G Lee
Ferdy Murphy
143
held up towards rear, mistake 9th, travelling well after 3 out, headway and switched right after 2 out, chased winner soon after last, ran on well, not quite get there
3 5 Planet of Sound 10/1 7 11 - 7 R Johnson
P J Hobbs
150
held up towards rear, mistake 1st, not fluent 7th, mistake 8th and pushed along, headway approaching 2 out, not pace of front 2 final 100 yards
4 3 1/4 Made In Taipan (IRE) 20/1 7 11 - 7 D N Russell
T Mullins
147
led to 7th, led 8th, hit 9th, headed 3 out, still every chance approaching last, faded flat
5 1 3/4 Tartak (FR) 10/1 6 11 - 7 P J Brennan
T R George
145
mid-division, raced keenly, not fluent 1st, headway when squeezed out after 8th, 3rd after 2 out, hit last, not much room on landing, faded flat
6 nse Gauvain (GER) 33/1 7 11 - 7 p N Fehily
C J Mann
147
in rear, mistake 1st, not fluent 2nd, squeezed along from 4 out, headway after 2 out, kept on flat, never troubled leaders
7 1 Cornas (NZ) 33/1 7 11 - 7 D Jacob
Nick Williams
146
mid-division, hampered 3rd, headway on outer approaching 3 out, close 3rd and going well when stumbled 2 out, ridden before last, weakened flat
8 nk I'msingingtheblues (IRE) 9/1 7 11 - 7 Christian Williams
P F Nicholls
157
in touch, not fluent 4th, handy next, one pace and beaten before last
9 2 3/4 Follow The Plan (IRE) 16/1 6 11 - 7 J Cullen
O McKiernan
146
tracked leaders, hampered on bend before 4th, mistake 3 out, driven when stumbled 2 out, weakened approaching last
10 10 Calgary Bay (IRE) 15/2 2Fav 6 11 - 7 A P McCoy
Miss H C Knight
150
mid-division, hit 8th, still going well before 3 out, no real headway, eased from 2 out
11 9 Panjo Bere (FR) 40/1 6 11 - 7 p1 J E Moore
G L Moore
145
in touch, hampered 3rd, ridden 9th, weakened approaching 3 out
12 1 Cool Operator 125/1 6 11 - 7 Denis O'Regan
J Howard Johnson
135
held up in rear, not fluent 5th, well behind when mistake 3 out
13 1 Cheating Chance (IRE) 150/1 8 11 - 7 M D Grant
Andrew Turnell
143
held up in rear, mistake and reminders 7th, well behind 3 out
14 4 1/2 Golden Silver (FR) 14/1 7 11 - 7 P Townend
W P Mullins
153
tracked leaders, mistake 2nd, every chance 3 out, weakened under pressure from 2 out
15 18 Bringbackthebiff (NZ) 33/1 7 11 - 7 t A J Mcnamara
E J O'Grady
141
in touch, hampered 3rd, struggling 4 out, soon weakened, well behind when mistake 3 out
PU Original (FR) 16/1 7 11 - 7 t J M Davies
M Rolland
148
in rear, ridden and struggling to keep up 4th, slow jump next, soon pulled up
F Tatenen (FR) 4/1 Fav 5 11 - 7 R Walsh
P F Nicholls
155
chased leader 1st, fell 3rd
I'm So Lucky Non Runner 143

tabasco - 09 Mar 2009 13:14 - 8 of 25
With Cheltenham upon us it is very easy to get sucked into the hype and overlook value The legendary John P McManus whos Binocular is as short as 5/4 for the Champion Hurdle with some companiesI would lay himthe field at slightly odds on looks better valueHe should run a good racehas the form in the bookbut one statistic I do not like is the record of 5yosif you take last years winner Katchit out of the equation you have to go back many years to find another 5yo winnermost fancied 5yo and best placed that have bombed include:- 2007 Detroit City (USA) SP 6/4F 6th 2006 Faasel (IRE) SP 16/1 8th 2005 Essex (IRE) SP 9/1 12th 2004 Golden Cross (IRE) SP 40/1 7th 2003 Santenay (FR) SP 33/1 9th 2002 Bilboa (FR) SP 14/1 3rd and you can go back many more years to find success.Agreed not that many have been fancied over this timebut that tells a story in itself
Here are a couple against the favourite that I like very muchPUNJABI at around 33/1 and of course the resilient little Katchet 18/1 betfairmy true price on these two is almost half the above quoted oddsand may well prove an easy trade please dyor

I never recommend favs. or short prices
Please use this info to help your own judgement
------------------------------------------
Aint got it right again Jeff have I?.whooppeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!