Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.

Cracking research site, although very bearish... worthwhile reading some articles...


http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43864/a-rescue-for-bear-stearns-but-the-fed-is-destroying-the-dollar.html

HBOS looks a great short target 300p
BB short to 50p.
RBS short to 150p.

Will UK banks drop further today when the US market opens or does the current SP take that into account - anyone care to add their tuppence worth?

Alex

ps holding AL. for the divi.

BB NOW 188P HSBC 745 RBS 310

A must read...

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/41975/the-six-trends-that-will-define-2008.html

AL.H2 Dividend 23-04-2008 19-05-2008 36.5000 GBX 55.3000
H1 Dividend 05-09-2007 08-10-2007 18.8000 GBX

BB.H2 Dividend 26-03-2008 02-05-2008 14.3000 GBX 21.0000
H1 Dividend 22-08-2007 05-10-2007 6.7000 GBX
HBOSH2 Dividend 12-03-2008 12-05-2008 32.3000 GBX 48.9000
H1 Dividend 08-08-2007 08-10-2007 16.6000 GBX
RBS.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 06-06-2008 23.1000 GBX 33.2000
H1 Dividend 15-08-2007 05-10-2007 10.1000 GBX
LLOYD.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 07-05-2008 24.7000 GBX 35.9000
H1 Dividend 08-08-2007 03-10-2007 11.2000 GBX
BACS.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 25-04-2008 22.5000 GBX 34.0000
H1 Dividend 15-08-2007 01-10-2007 11.5000 GBX

Knew if i was lazy enough for long enough someone would do it for me... lol, thx!

Americans simply dont have enough money to pay their credit cards and mortgage repayments.

Take B.Stearns they were $170 a share a year ago and $50 a share last Friday and they have sold to JPM for $2 a share ...who is to say that wont happen to Britsh Banks..

If the UK housing market collapses it will take HBOS with it as they have massive exposure to th housing market.. no bank is safe.

DARLING BANK the safe.

UK banks should not suffer to the degree bear stearns did. There are many differences, not only in the product offering, but in the regulatory system. They will suffer though.
To call it a sub prime crises is now, for me, officailly a misnomer. Lenders accross the UK are now pulling in their horns on prime loans too. This is due not to risk, but to illiquidity and an end to the money go round.
The question now is how and when this will end. I thought I spotted signs of it about 6 weeks ago, with sub prime lenders sourcing their money in Switzerland, but even that hasn't worked. The thing now is to let capitalism take its course. There is a huge supply gap opening and someone will fill it. But they can only do that as and when the property market has a correction. While we are being told it must come, loan to values are low are they are only willing to lend to their best estimate for a value that is likely to drop. Once it has happened, we will see a rise in loan to values that will start consumerism up again.
Just as a rising market feeds off itself, a falling market does too.
The answer, for me, is a short until secured lending eases, then go long. Watch the rates and more importantly the criteria and as that eases you will know that the property market, and by extension the banks business, is about to turn up.
The reason the USA suffered most in this is simply their mortgages tend to be of the flexible type, where all spending is part of the mortgage, including credit cards, car finance and even buying a fridge at your local Walmart. Imagine how bad it would be here if all the potential defaultees included every bit of their lending in with their mortgage.

$2 for BEAR STEARNS.Despite "challenging times," the U.S. government is "on top" of the unfolding financial problems, President Bush said Monday at a Cabinet meeting. Bush said he was supportive of the actions of the Federal Reserve to restore order to the markets. "Our financial institutions are strong," Bush said, adding that "capital markets are functioning efficiently."

Bank shares now on the way up.

http://depression2.tv/d2/node/42

I fancy HBOS as a short, not only are they exposed to the UK mortgage market, but also have a massive expoure to near sub prime lending (7.0bn). Worth a short on any bounce. imo.

You may be right, spitfire.
From an industry point of view I can confirm to you that the Halifax have taken 3 unusual steps recently which seem aimed at reducing exposure.
1) The best secured deals they offer are now only available to existing mortgage customers, new customers do not seem very welcome
2) Their sub prime arm has banned all lending that is used for consolidation puposes
3) They have reduced their maximum personal loan amount from 25k to 13k

That looks to me like they have decided they do not want to attract any more custom.

Best short in the market due to the UK housing exposure.

See chart below,

HBOS have had a hell of a fall in last 3 weeks from 700 to sub 500, I notice that the last lower high or resistance is just below 600. Now if markets bounce and HBOS fails to break 600 and falls, it may be a good entrance for a short.