Such an undervalued company IMO worth a bit of research and the chart is looking very tasty too...........


Allenby Note
We initiate coverage of Manroy with a Buy recommendation and fair value of 60p offering 46% upside to the current share price of 41p. This recommendation is based on the recovery in profits expected in the current year to 30 September 2013 and a share price which is reflecting the historic issues that adversely impacted the FY 2011/12 outcome and nothing for the much improved performance that we anticipate being delivered against the group’s record order book. Manroy recently announced losses for the year to 30 September 2012, primarily as a result of delays in the novation of US contracts by the Department of Defense (DoD), a delay in the receipt of First Article Acceptance (FAA) from the DoD and a delay in the confirmation of a particular export order for Heavy Machine Guns from a major customer. In addition, the relocation of Manroy USA (MUSA) from two existing facilities into new premises in North Carolina also negatively affected results from this 49% owned associate. These delays and one-off costs will serve to enhance prospects for the current year as the group expects the export order referred to above, and others, to be confirmed. Novation was received in April 2012 and the FAA process is progressing well, albeit having taken much longer than expected. Meanwhile, a record order book of £9m in the UK and $13.2m (£8m) from MUSA, together with a very encouraging pipeline of contact opportunities augurs well for further revenue generation. Concerted efforts by management to increase export business and widen the group’s product base have met with success and now places the group in arguably its best position since float to deliver improved returns this year. Our forecasts for FY 2012/13 call for a near doubling of revenue to £14m, an adjusted PBT of £1.86m and EPS of 7.7p, rising to £17m, £3.18m and 13.6p respectively for FY 2013/14. The resulting PER of 5.3x falling to 3.0x compares to a sector average of 10.9x and 11.0x respectively and illustrates the significant discount that Manroy trades on against the sector average. Assuming our forecasts are met we anticipate the group returning to the dividend list and prudently look for a dividend of 1p, rising to 2p next year. We consider the current depressed share price as offering an attractive entry point for investors and reaffirm our Buy recommendation. (IJ)

clogheen - you suggest 20p ish more.
IF they get the £8million order they keep taking about and IF US comes good and IF they get back to their 37% margin.... you would be looking at profits around £8million per year. Say PE 5? not onerous surely, and you would have a price IRO £2 or so.
All just fantasy of course......

Not fantasy at all temelco, as you say if all the above comes off who knows where the sp will go,,,,,,,moving up again today on a few buy's,,,,,all IMO

Dunno this Co. but notice the Directors don't risk much of their own money - and what they do risk is well-down - so are they not paying attention to their Finances, or just bad at steering a HUlk during bad times?

All that "if this/that" is unlikley to happen IMHO . . . even being Generous of probabilities: a third will be positive, a third negative and a third do nothing either way - so now does that look like the Co is due a re-rating?

Directors and associates actually own a huge percentage of the company already. They have also bought in at all three fundrasings over the last two years

HOO! Half a million traded early doors today. My guess is that is the overhang cleared...

Not surprised to see a dip today - and on no trades. I suppose potentially the MMs may have taken a big hit early doors and won't need to report it until later. BUT
MMs play a very clever game. At this point they are probably in the position that they are short of stock, having sold several thousand just under 50p. They drop the price to pull some more in from weak holders. Then when they are ready ( long of stock) they push the price up again. Its the same on the way down.BUT thinking back to the approx. 500,000 traded on 21st. My guess is that two mms took about half each. That being the case they are currently long which is why thay have pushed the price up - and the 48p trades are actually sales by the mms. So they are close to flat again if you add up what's happened over the last ten days. It would also mean the overhang is gone. All positive IMO. I'd LOVE to get into one of the presentations

Allenby just issued a huge ( 34 pages) research note which ended up saying...
"....Buy recommendation and see fair value at 60p with the potential for this to rise much higher over a twelve month timeframe..."

MANROY (MAN, 46p, £9m) NEW CONTRACT AWARDS



In its recent full year results statement, Manroy revealed that its order book and pipeline stood at record levels and that negotiations were at an advanced stage in respect of a number of significant orders. Today the group reveals that it has received new contracts totalling £1.8m for new and existing customers within Asia and Europe including a “significant” £1m order from an existing customer in Asia which is already covered by export licenses, thus allowing delivery within the current financial year. These new contracts are in addition to the group’s record order book of £9m bringing the total order book up to around £11m. Its 49% owned associate company Manroy USA (MUSA) also has an order book worth $13.2m bringing the total between the two companies to approximately £19m. We believe that this announcement will be followed by additional contracts during the course of the current financial year to 30 September 2013, confirming both the strength of the group’s growing product portfolio and its success in increasing the size and breadth of its customer base. Some of this potential has begun to be recognised in the share price which over the past fortnight has risen from 40p to a high of 50p before easing back to the current 46p. However, our short term fair value is 60p and we continue to believe that at that level Manroy’s prospects would be more fairly priced in, even though the shares would still be trading at a significant discount to the Aerospace & Defence sector. As it stands, at 46p, the shares are trading on a PER of 6x 2012/13 forecast earning which falls to 3.4x earnings in the following year. Still a very attractive investment proposition. (IJ)

9/13/25/50 EMA and MA going nicely

Anyone any idea what the individual MMs are quoting? Someone told me WINS were the same bid and offer, but I can't get any confirmation of that....

Many years ago, someone who I always thought DID know said that share prices always trickled up slowly if they were going to be solid advances. The point being that people who want to sell need to be taken out as cheaply as possible as far as the MMs are concenred. If they jump the price up they would get hit with a lot of stock which would then need to "job" out which stops any further advance - which isn't in anybodys interest. So they trickle it up slowly, taking out those that want out as it goes. Adam Smith in Funny Money said the market hates gaps - it loves filling in what was missed on the way down. That's pretty much what seems to be happening here....

Have a look at this - it has really made me laugh! www.thegaffer.com

Sp doing well for us temelco :-)

Big day tomorrow.....

The most interesting thing at the AGM - apart from the much larger number of people there than usual was in connection with MUSA. As well as saying the order book was up, the FD confirmed that a) it was trading profitably b) it was on track to make a good profit for the year c) the cashflow was positive. Glyn Bottomley added they had delivered and been paid for $500,000 of commercial equipment in the last six weeks and that the (potential) gun law didn't look as if it was going to make any difference to their commercial operation. David Low then chipped in that effectively ALL the sales in the last few weeks, although they had to be accounted for in the P&L, were cash straight into the bank as the costs had already been paid for. I thought a very upbeat AGM. Glyn also mentioned they had 14 new customers over the last 18 months. Hope that helps

Manroy has announced the earnings enhancing acquisitions of certain trade and assets of Base Enamellers (Base) and certain assets of RJL Engineering (RJL) for an aggregate consideration of £0.8m cash, to be funded through the group’s own resources. Over the past two years Base has been working with Manroy as a strategic supplier on important elements of the group’s new General Purpose Machine Gun (GPMG) which Manroy has recently begun to market to customers in both the UK and export markets. In addition to the GPMG programme, Base has provided sub-contract support for Manroy on other product lines including lightweight towbars, lightweight tripods and other weapon mounting solutions. By acquiring Base, Manroy brings this engineering expertise in-house, thus benefiting from the skills and synergistic cost savings that this delivers. In addition, we see the acquisition improving manufacturing controls and efficiencies while Manroy will inherit the additional revenue streams derived from Base’s own customer base, many of whom operate as original equipment manufacturers and contractors to the defence industry. Revenue from Base for the year ended 30 September 2012 was approximately £2m of which c.50% related to work generated from Manroy orders. The acquisition of Base/RJL will be consolidated into Manroy’s accounts for seven months of the current financial year ending 30 September 2013 and we are assuming that Manroy’s revenues will increase by around £0.5m and by £1m in FY 2013/14, both forecasts obviously reflecting only the non-Manroy sales within the Base/RJL business. We have also assumed that the elimination of the third party margin will boost Manroy’s gross margin by 200 bps in the current year and 300 bps in 2013/14. After accounting for the increase in the cost base we have raised our adjusted PBT/EPS forecasts for Manroy in the current year from £1.86m/7.70p to £1.925m/7.97p and for 2013/14 from £3.18m/13.57p to £3.30m/14.08p. Since initiating research coverage on the company on 17 January 2013, the shares have risen by 43% to 58.5p before recently easing back to the current 56p, going some way to confirming our initial fair value figure of 60p. In consideration of the above acquisition and the recently announced increase in Manroy USA’s order book from $13.2m to $14m we are moving our fair value estimate up to 70p and will review it further after the group’s interim results or earlier on additional news flow. (IJ)

Hmmm definitely a move afoot methinks

Well that's a start we are back to where we were last July. So now we are worth - what -£13 million. If what Glyn Bottomley says is right that means they should earn IRO £3-3.5m this financial year. ie under 4 PE. IC 2 is more than right.....The price will, of course, drop back, because the MMs need to get some stock in, but I'd say the trajectory of the share price will have shifted from down to up. One of the interesting things is the chart - believe it or not - is not yet screaming buy. But6another week or two at or above these levels and it will.
MANROY PLC

MAJOR CONTRACT AWARDS UPDATE

Manroy Plc ("Manroy" or the "Group"), the AIM quoted leading UK Defence Contractor, is pleased to announce that it has received new contract orders totalling £8.7m from existing customers within Asia, Europe and the UK.

Included as part of these contracts is the award of a major order for £7.6m from an existing customer in Asia. In addition, this £7.6m contract, which is subject to normal license approval, involves the placing of an intra-group order to Manroy USA for approximately £5.0m. The balance of the new contracts is made up from several smaller but nonetheless significant export orders totalling £1.1m.

In addition, following the recent completion of its acquisition of Base (Manroy) Limited, further details of which were announced on 1 March 2013, the Group is pleased to announce that key elements of these new orders are now capable of being manufactured in-house.

These new contracts increase the Group's order book to approximately £19m, more than 70% above the £11m announced on 4 February 2013. This compares with total revenue for the Group during the year ended 30 September 2012 of £7.4m. The Board anticipates that circa half of the Group's current order book will be delivered during the current financial year.

Glyn Bottomley, Manroy's Chief Executive, said:

"These major orders are the result of high customer confidence in Manroy following successful delivery of previous orders. They are a testament to the hard work of everyone within the Company and they take the Manroy order book to a new record level. These are exciting times for everyone involved at Manroy, and we look forward to making further positive announcements during the coming months."

I don't know if this means anything but I was just thinking about the "£8million" order they have been waiting on.I don't know about anyone else, I just assumed this was the £7.6million in the £8+million of orders announced recently. But it just occurs to me that THIS £8million order may NOT be the £7.6million they announced the other day. Would they say it was £8million several times and then end up with £7.6million? I would doubt it very much. Which would mean there's ANOTHER £8million order in the pipeline. Maybe.