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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 14th July (PIC)     

Crocodile - 13 Jul 2003 16:44

draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10% draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10%

Gold

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

marketwatch-ss.img?symb=DAX

S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

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 Pre Market Futures (7:30)
FTSE +15
TechMark +6
DAX +11

Hang Seng +167

Chart

Nikkei +120

Chart

 DOW +46
S&P +4.5
Nasdaq +7.5

 

News Headlines:   

The FTSE is expected to open positive following a strong rise in US futures. At the moment it is up 15 points but I would not be surprised to see a higher figure by 8:30

Burberry says total revenues increased by 18 percent during the three months ended June 30 as trading improved during the quarter. They said in May trading conditions were exceptionally difficult as it battled the travel paralysis in Asia caused by a fear of attacks and the deadly SARS virus. But on Monday it said results to date were in line with its full-year expectations.

BAE Systems has warned the UK's Ministry of Defence it can not build the designs of its two new aircraft carriers to budget, the Financial Times reported.

Reckitt Benckiser is considering making a 566 million pound bid for condom maker SSL International according to the Business on Sunday.

Stagecoach has secured a three-year deal to continue running the UK's busiest regional rail franchise, though the regulator has set tough new terms

Pace Loss 16.2 million but  the Group move close to break-even for the second half, following trading losses in the previous two half year periods. Dividends have been cancelled.

Calendar

All GMT

 ukf.gifUnited Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim usf.gifUnited States (Click Flag) euro.gifEurope & World

Mon 13th July

Reports / Data

Pace Micro (F) PTL 19.4m exp. Also Reporting: Homestyle Group (F)

Burberry Trading Statement Interserve Trading Statement

00.00  June BRC Retail sales Monitor US: Citigroup (Q2) 09.30  June PPI Input m/m 0.4% exp. 09.30  June PPI Output m/m 0.1% exp.

    
Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com

Bloomberg TV          

Pivot Calculator
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Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 11:14 - 7 of 18

Merrill Lynch analyst Joseph Osha upgraded Intel, the worlds's biggest chipmaker, to "buy" from "neutral," setting a new price target of $29.

"We believe that the street has underestimated the improvement in gross margin that Intel should realize over the coming six to eight quarters. Better than average selling prices should continue to flow from the shift toward mobile machines, where Intel sees better pricing," Merrill said in a note to clients.

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC - News), the No. 3 U.S. bank, on Monday said second-quarter net profit rose, helped by mortgage banking and rising deposits.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank reported profit of $2.74 billion, or $1.80 per share, compared with $2.22 billion, or $1.40 per share, a year earlier.

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - News), the world's largest financial services company, on Monday said second-quarter net profit rose, helped by gains in its securities and consumer operations.

The New York-based bank reported profit of $4.3 billion, or 83 cents per share, compared with $4.08 billion, or 78 cents per share, a year earlier. The year-earlier total included operating income from Travelers Property Casualty.

capt M - 14 Jul 2003 11:49 - 8 of 18

Morning all,

Croc, thanks for the info as usual. Hope u are having a great hol.

Da Bear, interesting comment on Intel above. Looks like its possible that chipmakers may see an uptuirn at last - time for a punt on soma ARMs?

Frtom todays ZDnet news: Chipmakers are pumping money into plants and equipment, in a dramatic reversal of previous years' budgets, says a new report
After years of cutting budgets, chipmakers will spend more on building facilities in 2003 -- an increase that could benefit chip-gear manufacturers, according to a new report.

Worldwide semiconductor capital spending will reach $29.9bn (18.36bn) in 2003, an increase of 7.9 percent from $27.7bn the previous year, research firm Gartner forecast in a report released Wednesday. The predicted rise follows two years of declines.

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 13:03 - 9 of 18

Intc reporting tomorrow, will see what they say on there future outlook.

1.2 billion shares traded Friday on the NYSE. Weak volume. The up volume amounted to 815 millions, the down volume 361 millions shares.So the up volume reached 70% of the total volume.Upward should ideally be accompanied with strong volume.We did not see that on Friday.I would like to see the recent highs on the SPX DOW re-visited but they are now lagging the NDX, usually when a top is building the NDX shows weakness first but this time its reversed it would seem, as the other indices put in there highs weeks ago, time for them is running out, what with the declining volume picture on there respective up days.I think they have no more than about 10 days to get to there 61.8% #s if they are going to get there DOW 9355 area, 9474 possible if we get a blow up, SPX 1019/20 if it gets over 1015.33. Recent high on NDX is 1307.Options expiration is this week so they were buying calls on friday for there expected this time of month payday rally.We shall see.

The Vix put in a 52 week low on friday down 3.8% to 20.72. I am watching this closely as its telling me a top is near.

The Nasdaq closed at 1733.90 points 1.1% higher; the semiconductors ended up 0.1% thereby showing relative weakness.

Druid2 - 14 Jul 2003 13:56 - 10 of 18

DaBear

I hope you're right that the top is near as my shorts are hurting at the moment.

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:06 - 11 of 18

NDX banging right up against its previous high 1307, MOB time.

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:11 - 12 of 18

Chip equipment stocks ($SOX) checked in with hefty gains as the Semicon trade show kicked off in San Francisco and San Jose on Monday. SG Cowen said it expects "cautious" optimism at the gathering, with a modest order improvement anticipated among the equipment makers in the second half of 2003, which should lead to a strong recovery in 2004. Cowen advises investors to buy on dips and said Novellus Systems (NVLS) could reveal upside to its orders estimates when it reports financial results next week. Novellus climbed 5 percent and group leader Applied Materials charged higher, with a gain of 4 percent.

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:14 - 13 of 18

SPX now in the resistance area of 1010-1015.33. The bigger picture of resistance, which was established by price action in June, 2002, is that the S&P 500 has a band of resistance at 1008-1041 with a focus at 1020-1031.

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:37 - 14 of 18

SPX testing previous high now of 1015.33, NDX up at 1315 then 1325.

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:48 - 15 of 18

Even though the Dow is well up today, it is lagging, the last time the SPX was up at 1015 the Dow was at 9350 area.

strange considering Six Dow stocks reach 52-week highs ($INDU, INTC, HPQ, CAT, JPM, C, AXP)

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:51 - 16 of 18

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Investors drove Intel shares to their highest level in a year Monday ahead of the company's second-quarter financial report, but support at these levels could be fleeting at any sign of delay in a recovery, analysts said.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9E666B1A%2D10D1%2D4DB9%2D9762%2D7690C1B9709A%7D&siteid=mktw

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 16:12 - 17 of 18

Insider Activity Totals for the week ending July 12, 2003

Total dollar value of all insider purchases and sales provides an aggregated measure of how insiders may feel about the market's short-term prospects. A low sell/buy ratio indicates bullish Insider Sentiment. A high sell/buy ratio indicates bearish Insider Sentiment.


http://insider.thomsonfn.com/tfn/insider.asp?imodule=mktTearsheet

Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 21:29 - 18 of 18

What a day huh ? The SPX gave us a double top going back to its previous high today, and then pulled back, Dow closed down 100 from its high of the day lagged the SPX all day got nowhere near its previous highs, NDX thats a whole different kettle of fish.

options expiration week sometimes the Tuesdays and Wednesdays in these weeks can jam prices in opposite directions. Tomorrow all eyes on INTC and greenspan as he's on Capitol Hill (3pm BST) tomorrow chatting about the eco picture, he will do his utmost to spin the economy in a positive light, hmmm wonder if the term "falling inflation" gets a mention in there somewhere

Off to look at some charts to see whats the story.
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