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Traders Thread - Friday 29th August (LLOY)
Crocodile - 28 Aug 2003 21:08
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Gold
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +23 | ||
| TechMark | +3 | ||
| DAX | +30 | ||
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Hang Seng +136
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Nikkei +118
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DOW | +14 |
| S&P | +1.8 | ||
| Nasdaq | +0.5 | ||
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News Headlines: U.S: Stocks stage late-day rally as buyers enter the market in the last hour of trading on the back of better data. The day's upbeat economic from the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose 3.1 percent in the second quarter, better than economists' expected 2.9 percent and up from an earlier estimate of 2.4 percent. The FTSE 100 index is set to rise following the late rebound on Wall Street. On the economic front, weekly U.S. jobless claims are due out at 1:30 p.m. with the final Michigan Consumer sentiment survey out at 1345 GMT.National Grid: The power lines operator is in the firing line after last night's power failure that hit parts of London and the South East, the Daily Mail reports.Glaxo: Europe's biggest pharmaceutical company, said late on Thursday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had approved sales of Wellbutrin XL, a once-daily version of the company's antidepressant pill. Glaxo said it expects Wellbutrin XL to be available in pharmacies by mid-September.British Airways: slashed the commisssions it pays to travel agents as part of the airline's cost cutting drive, said the Times. Royal Sun Alliance The Guardian said there was market talk that the UK insurer is considering a 2 for 3 rights issue at 100 pence which will be announced along with next week's resultsPsion said it plans to increase its stake in mobile phone software developer Symbian to 31.1 percent for 17.4 million pounds from MotorolaRegus said it planned to exit bankruptcy protection in the United States earlier than expected after it successfully restructured its U.S. operations.Greene King regional brewer and pubs group said that trading in the first 12 weeks of its financial year was a little ahead of expectations across all areas of its business. With like-for-like sales rose 1.2 percent at its managed pubs which had not benefited from recent investment.
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Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 08:37 - 7 of 24
Went long on the Banks which was a mistake, market sentiment in the sector is not very good and decided to only have a week response to the early rise.
Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 08:47 - 8 of 24
| interview with the Barclays Global Investors
Chief Economist Haydn Davies, produced by Cantos. Cantos is a U.K. financial
and corporate information service, available free to anyone with access to
the Internet (www.cantos.com).
Overview of the Eurozone
Why has Europe slipped into recession?
Q.
Why have major economies in the euro-zone slipped into recession and how
long do you think they'll remain there?
A.
The big problem with Europe in contrast to the U.S. is the weakness of
consumer spending. Of course in the U.S. consumers have been spending quite
resiliently and piling on the debt no matter what's been happening in the
labour market. In Europe that hasn't been the case.
Unemployment has been climbing, so that's been hitting consumers, and in
particular in Europe consumers are very, very sensitive to the labour market
- when they see unemployment rise they cut back on their spending. And
that's really why the European economy has been so weak.
At the same time investment expenditure from firms has been very weak as
well and coupled with the very weak international outlook European firms
haven't been able to rely on sales to the U.S. or Japan.
It's all coming together in the melting pot and made a recipe for a very
weak economy in Europe.
Q.
Are there any signs of a pick-up in business confidence and investment?
A.
The big barometer that everyone watches is the IFO survey of German business
confidence. It's a great measure of activity across the whole region. That's
picking up. But the problem with the IFO survey is that its two main
components are hopes for the future, businessmen's expectations, and natural
measure of new orders.
Now, all of the improvement in business confidence has come through
expectations rather than new orders. So whilst there's an improvement in
confidence, and that is good news, really we all want to see new orders
start to pick up. And at the moment all onlookers really are waiting for
that.
Is the euro to blame?
Q.
Are the budget deficit restrictions imposed by Brussels to blame for
deepening these recessions?
A.
They're certainly not helping. For example, in the U.K. and the U.S. a
couple of years ago the governments were running surpluses around 2 to 3% of
economic output.
Over the last two years that's completely reversed and now those governments
are running a deficit of about the same magnitude. So there has been a
substantial loosening of policy in the U.S., in the U.K..
Of course in Europe that hasn't been happening because everyone has been
handcuffed by the stability pact. So it would have been more helpful,
certainly, if governments had been able to increase spending or cut taxes a
little bit more than they had. But it's not to blame for the overall
weakness.
The real reason is that consumers are reluctant to spend and perhaps the
European Central Bank wasn't as proactive as perhaps central banks in the
U.S..
Q.
Isn't the euro's growing strength efforts to boost exports?
A.
The euro is certainly a problem but the ECB can't complain because ever
since the euro was born it's has been complaining that it was too cheap. Now
the euros in the range that the ECB would see as being fair value it would
be very difficult for it to turn round and say, actually we'd prefer it if
the euro was a little bit weaker.
So yes of course it's bad news for exporters, of course the last few weeks
we've actually seen the euro weaken a little bit more and already firms are
starting to welcome that and that should help to boost profits.
Will the US economy have to rescue Europe?
Q.
Will Europe just have to wait for the U.S. economy to give it some lift as
it recovers.
A.
That seems to be the story over the last 10 years; very little growth has
been generated from within Europe, its always waited for U.S. demand to pick
up and basically ridden off the back of an export-led recovery.
Of course, interest rate policy in the euro-zone is very loose at the
moment, perhaps not as loose as it could be, particularly in Germany. For
example, in the euro-zone the interest rates are close to zero. That's not
the case in Germany because inflation is a little bit lower.
So certainly policy is quite stimulative so there is room there and plenty
of scope for growth to re-emerge but as usual Europe will be reliant on the
U.S. recovery.
Q.
Economists have been saying that structural reform has been needed in Europe
for a long time. Are there any signs that governments are removing
restrictive practices.
A.
There are signs that things are improving. Germany has been making a lot of
headway in recent weeks and a lot of headlines. And that's all very welcome
but these are quite small steps and unfortunately they take an awful long
time to have much of an impact and even the steps in Germany aren't going to
make that much difference to Germany's capacity to grow without generating
inflation.
The overwhelming problem in the euro-zone isn't the economy's ability to
grow without generating inflation, it's trend rate of growth. The problem is
that the economy is growing below its trend rate of growth and really we
need to see growth recover, basically helped by further interest rate
policy.
Q.
Can we expect to see more cross border mergers in the longer term future as
Europe seeks to create more world class players.
A.
Of course investment bankers have been saying for a very long time, ever
since the single market came about, that firms would start to merge across
borders in order to create global champions, or European champions . That
hasn't happened.
There are significant impediments to firms merging, stock markets in Europe
tend to be quite locally focused and at the moment there doesn't seem to be
much that's going to change on that score. At the moment firms have enough
problems trying to sort out their bottom lines without trying to create
large companies.
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little woman
- 29 Aug 2003 09:01
- 9 of 24
I've been very surprised that the banks are currently doing so badly. They seem to pick up in the morning, but then drop down below were they started. (The exception seems to be STAN, but I suppose they are not as dependant on whats going on in the UK/Europe as much)
I like the Answer to the last question! Although it is a good thing that firms are "sorting out their bottom lines without trying to create large companies", it certainly is a reflection of attitudes in the UK, when a banker considers it a major problem that firms have to do this. I suppose its too much to hope that one day we will have the American attitude that it is the solution rather than the problem!
I like the Answer to the last question! Although it is a good thing that firms are "sorting out their bottom lines without trying to create large companies", it certainly is a reflection of attitudes in the UK, when a banker considers it a major problem that firms have to do this. I suppose its too much to hope that one day we will have the American attitude that it is the solution rather than the problem!
little woman
- 29 Aug 2003 09:52
- 10 of 24
Hey Druid2 - are you around today?
If anyone is checking out this thread, let us know what you are up to! Just one line will do.................
I'm going to be in and out all day as it looks like prices are going sideways so I think I shall try and get some stuff done!
It'll be nice to know if others are having a more interesting time than me!
If anyone is checking out this thread, let us know what you are up to! Just one line will do.................
I'm going to be in and out all day as it looks like prices are going sideways so I think I shall try and get some stuff done!
It'll be nice to know if others are having a more interesting time than me!
Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 13:00 - 11 of 24
Short running on IHG Intercontinental,. looking good
little woman
- 29 Aug 2003 13:31
- 12 of 24
No one got anything they want to post?
Oh well, just gone long on VOD again.
Oh well, just gone long on VOD again.
Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 14:19 - 13 of 24
Covered IHG + 5 but may short again
Still running a small short on Rexham and considering Matalan with results due sjortly. News is it they be a touch on the disapointing side.
Still running a small short on Rexham and considering Matalan with results due sjortly. News is it they be a touch on the disapointing side.
little woman
- 29 Aug 2003 15:17
- 14 of 24
I've played with MTN quite a bit of the last couple months and done pretty well. Been a bit nervous lately as not sure if they will continue up in the short term. They have the new stock due out any day now and waiting for my mum to let me know what she thinks as she likes to shop there! Would consider them again if short of ideas.
I must say croc, they are a boring lot over here on the investers thread! I can see why the traders thread does so well. If things don't start getting interesting soon (and by the way anyone reading this, hard facts aren't as interesting as short comments!) I may feel the need to post over there instead........
I must say croc, they are a boring lot over here on the investers thread! I can see why the traders thread does so well. If things don't start getting interesting soon (and by the way anyone reading this, hard facts aren't as interesting as short comments!) I may feel the need to post over there instead........
Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 15:59 - 15 of 24
:-)
Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 15:59 - 16 of 24
US markets closed on Monday ..
shotgg
- 29 Aug 2003 16:19
- 17 of 24
Please keep the thread going. Everything helps. Thanks
little woman
- 29 Aug 2003 16:24
- 18 of 24
Thanks for posting shotgg, starting to think no one out there!
Have you been keeping an eye (you did any deals) on any particular share? Don't need to know why, but just curious about which!
Have you been keeping an eye (you did any deals) on any particular share? Don't need to know why, but just curious about which!
little woman
- 29 Aug 2003 16:37
- 19 of 24
Watched the auction properly for the first time! Amazing....
Crocodile - 29 Aug 2003 16:43 - 20 of 24
little woman, lots of info in there!
Have a good weekend to all
D.
Have a good weekend to all
D.
ThePlayboy
- 29 Aug 2003 16:51
- 21 of 24
TUESDAY FTSE PP
R2 4244.2
R1 4202.6
PP 4186.1
S1 4144.5
S2 4128
Close below Fridays S1 after loosing "9.9pts" in the auction, month end/long weekend! Close was also below weekly s1 and the 23.6% FIB level of the recent rise, will fresh buying materialise on Tue for Sept before the consensus for a down Sept emerges?
Have a good weekend!
R2 4244.2
R1 4202.6
PP 4186.1
S1 4144.5
S2 4128
Close below Fridays S1 after loosing "9.9pts" in the auction, month end/long weekend! Close was also below weekly s1 and the 23.6% FIB level of the recent rise, will fresh buying materialise on Tue for Sept before the consensus for a down Sept emerges?
Have a good weekend!
Bullshare
- 29 Aug 2003 17:08
- 22 of 24
Last trading day dumping as market closed, took 10 points off the FTSE in a blink of an eye
Druid2
- 29 Aug 2003 22:47
- 23 of 24
little woman
Hi there. just catching up with the thread. Not been too good for me today but could have been much worse. My BARC shorts came into profit by 7 points and I placed a stop at breakeven as I hoped to hold them for longer for further falls and did not want to keep the stop too tight as I did not want to be stopped out. Unfortunately was stopped out at around 8.30 this evening when the DOW went to the 9400 level. So after holding my BARC shorts for some weeks and putting up with the paper losses ended up evens. Well I suppose it could have been worse.
Got to be careful now what I do with the extra margin available !!!
Hope you and other traders here did better today.
Hi there. just catching up with the thread. Not been too good for me today but could have been much worse. My BARC shorts came into profit by 7 points and I placed a stop at breakeven as I hoped to hold them for longer for further falls and did not want to keep the stop too tight as I did not want to be stopped out. Unfortunately was stopped out at around 8.30 this evening when the DOW went to the 9400 level. So after holding my BARC shorts for some weeks and putting up with the paper losses ended up evens. Well I suppose it could have been worse.
Got to be careful now what I do with the extra margin available !!!
Hope you and other traders here did better today.
little woman
- 01 Sep 2003 08:38
- 24 of 24
Nice to hear from you Druid2 - been away for the weekend so only just now looked in. It was an odd trading day all round I think
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