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Traders Thread - Thursday 29th January (AZN)     

Crocodile - 28 Jan 2004 23:13

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE -36 DAX -44 DOW +33 S&P +9 Nasdaq +5

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Nikkei -93   Hang Seng -223  Asia News

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US Stocks tumbled after the Federal Reserve changed the language in its outlook for interest rates, sparking worry among investors about when the central bank might start raising rates House prices in Britain rose 0.7 percent on the month in January and by 14.3 percent on a year earlier, the Nationwide building society said.

London Stock Exchange said third-quarter turnover rose seven percent to 63.3 million pounds from a year ago, despite tough conditions. Although the exchange said primary market activity picked up, the outlook for the year remains unchanged Amvescap fund manager which is facing U.S. legal action over alleged mutual fund trade abuses, is forecast to post 2003 profits down 24.7 percent after a poll of 10 analysts. They said core year profits, due to be announced on February 3, would reflect hits from the weakness of the U.S. dollar and expectations of weaker fund flows caused by poor investment performance, as well as the U.S. probe.WH Smith expect fireworks at the AGM today. They have tried to appease angry shareholders on today with news that it will begin searching for a new chairman and announced the appointment of a new non-executive director. Also they said that following the sale of its U.S. businesses, it will review its operations in Asia Pacific.

Crest Nicholson housebuilder and property developer forecast a more stable UK housing market in 2004 after years of surging prices. It posted a profit rise of 74.6 million pounds up 18 percent for the year at the top end of expectations on Thursday. Analysts on average expected the firm to post profits of between 72-75 million pounds. It said it would boost its final dividend to 7.5 pence, up 16 percent, giving a total year payout of 11 pence. They added that they start the current year with low gearing and an excellent land bank and well positioned to make further progress in the current year.

Cable & Wireless telecoms said trading in Q3 was in line with management expectations, with revenues down five percent on a year earlier with revenues 854 million pounds. The firm said it had a net cash balance of 1.6 billion pounds at the end of the period.

Autonomy software reported a rise in fourth quarter earnings on Thursday and said it was well-placed to take advantage of a possible change in business climate. They reported revenues of $17 million for the fourth quarter to end-December, while earnings per share rose to $0.02 from $0.01 a year earlier, Annual revenues rose to $54.88 million from $51 million a year ago, against forecasts of around $54.2 million. All in line with analysts forecasts.

Canary Wharf: The founder of the British property group conceded he had not gathered the funding necessary to topple a rival, agreed $2.86 billion bid for the owner of the UK's tallest building. Regulatory officials had given Reichmann and Brascan until February 13 to issue a counter-offer.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

Astrazeneca (F) PBT $4.24bn exp. Osmetech (I) Crest Nicholson (F) PBT 73.2m exp. Autonomy (F), J Sainsbury (Q3), Sportingbet (Q3), London Stock Exchange Trading Statement, WH Smith AGM & Trading Statement Cable & Wireless Q3 Trading Statement

Landround (AGM), Next (Update)Gyrus Group (Update)

10.30 Jan GfK consumernfidence Survey 3.0 exp.

The Dow Chemical (Q4), Honeywell International (Q4), Baxter International (Q4)Verizon communications (Q4), Black & Decker (Q4), Power-One Inc (Q4), Waters (Q4), Guidant (Q4), Eastman Chemical (Q4) Pinnacle West Capital (Q4), Boeing (Q4), Exxon Mobil (Q4), The Gillette (Q4), Halliburton (Q4), Eli Lilly and (Q4), Sears Roebuck and (Q4), Anadarko Petroleum (Q4), Apache (Q4), Ball (Q4), Brunswick (Q4), Coca-Cola Enterprises (Q4), Danaher (Q4), Deluxe (Q4), Duke Energy (Q4)

13.30 Q4 Employment cost Index 0.9% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims 342k exp. 19.00 Minutes of Dec 9th FOMC Meeting

Hennes & Mauritz (F)

09.00 Nov M3 3m ma 7.6% exp.

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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little woman - 29 Jan 2004 09:16 - 7 of 21

No Hampshire (village called Four Marks - claim to fame is highest altitude in the county)

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 09:45 - 8 of 21

Very quite today, suppose most managed to make it to the traders day.... I bet they are having a better time than I am.

Bit of news:

0937 GMT LONDON--FTSE 100 -1.1% at 4420.0 following on from Wall St a dismal performance Wed. "Our clients are going long in the FTSE 100 and I would expect to see the index recover to close flat today," says IG Index Jon Noble. Notes market expects a quarter point rise in US interest rates in next couple of months, "and while this affects UK stocks to some extent, itS not that dramatic." Among corporate newsflow, Cable & Wireless slips after it posts an expected decline in 3Q revenue.(SMT)

Fundamentalist - 29 Jan 2004 09:57 - 9 of 21

Hi LW - sorry to hear your snowed in. A very red morning on the markets, looking to go long GSK again

Melnibone - 29 Jan 2004 11:01 - 10 of 21

Already long GSK when it dipped below 1080 this morning.

FTSE 60 Day EMA seems to be holding at the moment.
FTSE had already dropped a fair bit whilst the US
has been rising recently, so unsure where it's going.

Last swing low has been breached, intraday, but lower trendline
is still holding as far as end of day close is concerned.

Looking for position longs in some shares I'm watching, but
will monitor US/FTSE indices so as to go short on the FTSE
as a hedge if required. Expecting more of a retracement than
this really, but this Bull run has had a habit of creaming
the Bears when they get frisky.

Melnibone.

Crocodile - 29 Jan 2004 11:03 - 11 of 21

Traders Meeting, Royal Horticultural Halls, London
Due to the adverse weather conditions we have about 30 spaces now available if anyone local wants to come along. The day finishes at 5:30pm
D.

Melnibone - 29 Jan 2004 11:13 - 12 of 21

AZN taking a pasting at the moment, due to lower
profits than expected.

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 29 Jan 2004 11:25 - 13 of 21

Another slippery day in greater London - let's see if they can keep the
tube trains moving today as far as the far flung outposts past Harrow and Raynes Lane!!! They failed terribly yesterday..
Thankfully I haven't had to venture out either
yesterday or today but for those trying to get further into London it
must be hell. Sorry to hear about your village LW - a day for staying in
the warm I think!!
Whatever happened to permanent salt/grit bins on the pavements??
They used to exist and people could use it for roads or pavements....
Mind you whatever happened to people bothering to clear snow from
pavements outside their property?

Things look better now than earlier on....Good day in the offing??
Hope so!!

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 12:34 - 14 of 21

I just go an e-mail from a property aution house with the little attachment:

If you are the successful purchaser at auction you must provide us with proof of address and identity

Does this mean that if I buy a property at auction and don't have proof of address and identity, I can back out of the deal!

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 14:35 - 15 of 21

DJ just opened

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 14:37 - 16 of 21

Opened up on close, but is moving sideways as if it doesn't know if it should go up or down!

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 14:51 - 17 of 21

Had a feeling that the DJ would drop so went short. Not going to hold long

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 14:55 - 18 of 21

1453 GMT LONDON--FTSE 100 -1.1% at 4420.8. Stays in negative territory despite Wall St kicking off on a modestly bright note. Interest rate worries return as investors fret over tinkering in FOMC statement, late Wed. Drug stocks struggle as AstraZeneca FY gets a lukewarm reception, financial, oil stocks also pullback. Strategist says specter of rising interest rates no big deal given that by the time hikes emerge the economy should be in pretty decent shape. "It will only strengthen opinion that earnings revision remain key as well," he says.

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 15:02 - 19 of 21

TOP STORIES

EXXONMOBIL SHARES RISE AS NET JUMPS 63%

Open 1% higher after oil giant post 4Q earnings of $6.65 billion, or $1.01 a share, including a gain of $2.23 billion from settlement of tax dispute. Revenue rises 17% to $65.95 billion, with higher oil and gasoline prices. Excluding items, oil major earns 68c a share, beating estimates by 10c.

BOEING EARNS $1.1B IN 4Q AFTER TAX REFUND
Posts earnings of $1.37 a share including an 87c-a-share gain. Excluding gains, earnings top analysts' estimates by 4c. Revenue slips 4% and company expects plane deliveries to be flat for next 2 years. Shares jump 2%.

SEARS OPERATING EARNINGS TOP VIEWS
Retailer reports 4Q operating earnings of $2.24 a share, well above analysts' expectations of $2.02 a share. Sees 1Q domestic same-store sales flat to slightly higher.

HALLIBURTON POSTS LOSS ON ASBESTOS SETTLEMENT
Loses $947 million, or $2.17 a share, in 4Q, including proposed $1.1 billion settlement for asbestos and silica litigation. Operating EPS of 34c beats views, and shares gain 2%. Revenue soars 63% to $5.5 billion with more government contracts in Middle East.

BRISTOL-MYERS OPERATING EPS MISSES VIEWS
4Q net rises 15% to $429 million, as sales increase 16% to $5.6 billion amid strong results from Plavix and Pravachol. Excluding items Bristol-Myers earns 37c a share, 2c shy of estimates and company projects a decline in &apos04 earnings as patents expire.

VERIZON POSTS 4Q LOSS ON STAFF REDUCTION COSTS
Loss of $1.46 billion, or 53c a share, includes items totaling $3.1 billion. Adjusted earnings of $1.6 billion, or 58c a share, top views by 2c. Revenue rises less than 1%, to $17.28 billion. Shares little changed.

US JOBLESS CLAIMS DECLINE BY 1,000
Fall to seasonally adjusted level of 342,000 in week to Jan. 24, matching expectations. Four-week moving average rises by 750, to 346,000. In separate report, U.S. 4Q labor costs rise 0.7%, the smallest increase in a year.

GROUP TAKES RESPONSIBILITY FOR ISRAEL BOMB
Palestinian suicide bomber who blew up on a bus in Jerusalem, killing 10 bystanders, was a Palestinian policeman from the West Bank. Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, a group loosely linked to Yasser Arafat, claims responsibility.

UPS 4Q NET FALLS, BUT TOPS VIEWS
Shipping giant reports operating earnings of $799 million, or 70c a share, a penny higher than analysts' expectations. However, bottom-line net income falls 43% as year-ago period was helped by $1.02 billion gain from an IRS settlement.

DOW CHEMICAL SWINGS TO 4Q PROFIT
Earns $929 million or 99c a share compared with a loss of $809 million a year ago, due to higher prices and volume growth. Excluding items earns 50c a share handily topping expectations of 29c. Sales climb 19% to $8.3 billion.

ASTRAZENECA 4Q EARNINGS MISS VIEWS
EPS of 38c below estimates for 40c as U.S. sales hurt by generic competition to Prilosec, Zestril and Nolvadex. Full-year pretax profit falls 4% to $4.2 billion, while EPS comes in under views at $1.78. Sales rise 6% to $18.85 billion. Shares fall 3%.

EUROPEAN STOCKS LOWER
Disappointing corporate earnings fuel round of profit-taking in most markets. Cable & Wireless slips on decline in 3Q revenue, while STMicroelectronics falls 3.7% on an 11% drop in 4Q net income.

ELI LILLY SALES RISE 17%, NET EDGES HIGHER
Drug maker&aposs 4Q net rises 1% to $747.2 million, or 69c a share, excluding one-time gains. Without items, Lilly earns 67c a share, in line with expectations. Sales climb to $3.47 billion, driven by growth in Zyprexa and new launches.

HONEYWELL SWINGS TO PROFIT, MEETS STREET
Earns $407 million, or 47c a share, in 4Q compared with a loss of $1.47 billion, a year ago which included a $1.55 billion asbestos-related litigation charges. Sales rise 5.7% to $6.19 billion helped mainly by favorable currency exchange.

JETBLUE 4Q PROFIT RISES 29%
Low-cost airline earns $19.5 million, or 17 cents a share, in part due to higher passenger revenue. Results meet Wall Street expectations. Revenue jumps 40% to $262.9 million, and load factor rises to 83.1% from 81.8% a year earlier.

DUKE REPORTS $2B LOSS IN 4Q
Energy company&aposs loss significantly widens from $52 million a year ago as it takes $3.4 billion pretax charge to reduce exposure to merchant generation and international markets. Ongoing EPS, which excludes special items, falls 31% to 22c.

DAIMLERCHRYSLER TO PROPOSE FLAT DIVIDEND
Plans to leave full-year dividend unchanged from last year&aposs EUR1.50 per share, say unnamed members of the company&aposs supervisory board. It will propose its dividend level when it publishes financial results next week.


======= DOW JONES NEWSWIRES ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARIES =======

CHARTING MARKETS
Stocks Headed Lower In Early Trading
Important intraday level for DJIA is 10461.55. Look for lower trading, with decisive move below second support of 10248.98 technical breakdown of long-term uptrend. Nasdaq going for test of first support of 2056.75.

MARK TO MARKET
Hit By A Truck Load Of Words
When stock averages moved sharply lower after yesterday&aposs FOMC statement, Jim Murphy says it seemed as if Socrates had been ousted and a long-haul trucker on crank had taken his place.

============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========
DJIA up 29.55 points to 10498.52
NASDAQ down 0.25 points to 2077.22
S&P 500 up 1.86 points to 1130.33
10-year T-note down 6/32 at 100 7/32 yield 4.222
NYMEX Spot Crude down $0.16 at $33.46/bbl
Dollar/Euro down 0.0006 at 1.2461

stockbunny - 29 Jan 2004 16:34 - 20 of 21

ALN is the only bright spark I have today - not the greatest on
the FTSE - better luck everyone on the Dow.

little woman - 29 Jan 2004 16:55 - 21 of 21

I love the last paragraph of this!


LONDON (Dow Jones) Leading international investor George Soros Thursday said he doesn't expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before Novembers presidential election.

Responding to a question during an appearance at the London School of economics, Soros said U.S. economic policy would be designed to aid President George W. Bush in his reelection campaign. "Karl Rove is in charge of the global economy and has done an extremely good job of pumping it up," he said, referring to the president&aposs top political adviser. "The price will be paid afterwards."

During its meeting Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged at 1% but dropped its commitment to keep rates low for a "considerable period." Instead, it said it would be "patient" in tightening policy, a switch that led many market participants to think a rise in interest rates will come sooner than they had previously expected. Prior to the FOMC statement, most market participants expected rates to remain unchanged until August or September.

Soros was promoting his new book, which is critical of the presidents foreign policy. One of the worlds richest individuals, he repeated his offer to provide campaign funding to help unseat Bush, although he declined to say how much he was prepared to spend on the campaign.

Soros said his foundation spends roughly $415 million annually, some $12 million of which is allocated to political activities within the U.S.
"Thats a good ratio and I'd like to keep it there," he said. "But if the need arises I am ready to step in."
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