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US Stocks Blue-chips rally near close, pushing DOW and S&P 500 higher. Nasdaq recovers, too. Interest rates will have to have to rise gradually if the economy runs in line with the government's economic forecast in November, a senior Bank of England official has said. Friends Provident life insurer reported a 14 percent increase in annual life and pensions sales and said it expected to expand market share in 2004. New business sales rose to 429.2 million pounds from 377 million just ahead of analysts forecast of 427 million. HSBC Holdings said it remains open to acquisitions but has no new buys on the horizon. Acambis vaccines maker said it was closing its research operation in Cambridge, eastern England, with the loss of about 40 jobs as it moves to streamline its development projects. Maiden Group outdoor advertising company said it expected to report 2003 pre-tax profit of 5.3-5.5 million pounds adding that 2004 is demonstrating a continuation of the recovery National Express Group was named by the Britain's rail authority to operate the new Greater Anglia franchise in Eastern England.

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Friends Provident FY Sales 427m exp, Whittard of Chelsea (I)Allied Domecq (AGM), Alibi communications (AGM) Ultimate Leisure Group (EGM) Forever Broadcasting (AGM), Slimma PLC (AGM) 09.30 Dec Final M4 Money Supply y/y 6.7% exp. 09.30 Dec Net consumer Credit 1.4bn exp. 09.30 Dec Net Lending Secure on Dwellings 8.7bn

Chevron Texaco (Q4) 13.30 Q4 GDP 4.9% exp. 13.30 Q4 Personal consumption 3.0% exp. 14.50 Jan Final Michigan Sentiment 102.7 exp. 15.00 Jan Chicago PMI 62.0 exp.

Pechiney (F), SAP (F) 07.00 Dec German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% exp 09.00 Nov Current Account 6.5bn exp. 11.00 Jan Industrial confidence 7.0 exp. 11.00 Jan Economic confidence 95.6 exp. 11.00 Jan consumer confidence 16.0 exp. 11.00 Jan Business Climate Indicator 0.0 exp.

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SBRY looking weak. Already down to 278p at the top of the
October trading range.

If we get further weakness, it could drop right down into
it again. The uptrend channel from the summer looks like it
may be breaking to me.

Melnibone.

Afternoon all,

Spent the morning clearing the snow & ice from my neighbours & my property access, so we can get out, now the roads are clear.

News from the US:

ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND NET JUMPS 68%, BEATS VIEWS

Net earnings for fiscal 2Q rises to $221 million, or 34c a share, topping Wall Street expectations for earnings of 27c a share. Sales jump 18% to $9.1 billion as oilseed, corn and wheat processing results improve.

YUKOS 3Q NET RISES 56%, BUT MISSES VIEWS
Russia&aposs largest oil producer reports profit of $1.324 billion on back of higher oil prices and increased production, but below market forecasts for $1.41 billion. Revenue rises 32% to $4.476 billion. Company has hired banks to unwind Sibneft merger.

CONSTELLATION 4Q NET CLIMBS 83%
Utility&aposs net rises to $119 million, or 71c a share, led by strong merchant energy results. Before special items, earnings per share increase to 67c, topping Wall Street estimates by 7c. Revenue jumps 83% to $2.5 billion.

GDP SEEN UP, MICHIGAN SENTIMENT STEADY
Economists look for 4.8% annual rate of increase in GDP growth in fourth quarter. Final January reading of University of Michigan&aposs consumer sentiment index expected to dip to 102.9 from midmonth reading of 103.2.

NORTEL 4Q FAR ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
Handily beats analysts' expectations for 4Q, providing evidence that demand for network equipment has stabilized and Nortel could be winning market share from rivals. Earnings rise to $499 million, helped by 12% rise in revenue.

DISNEY DROPS AS PIXAR ENDS TALKS
Animation studio ends talks with Disney to extend five-picture deal, winding up successful collaboration and saying it will seek deal with another studio. Disney says couldn&apost accept final offer from Pixar, and shares lose 4% late.

KKR WON'T BID FOR SAFEWAY
Does not intend to make an offer, after posting documentation to Safeway shareholders relating to the proposed acquisition by William Morrison. Still reserves the right to reopen offer over next 6 months if the Morrison bid lapses.

NOVARTIS SIGNALS INTEREST IN AVENTIS
Has hired investment bankers to assess feasibility of a deal, Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the situation. But even if Novartis wants to get involved, it is unclear if Aventis will invite it to step in, say these people.

EUROPE STOCKS RISE; US DATA EYED
Shares rise as Aventis and Nortel buoy drug and telecom-equipment makers respectively. Investors await the release of the January Chicago PMI data, hoping for insight into the sustainability of U.S. manufacturing&aposs recovery.

NIKKEI SNAPS 4-DAY LOSING STREAK
Tokyo shares end mixed, but the Nikkei 225 Stock Average ends its four-session losing streak with a marginal gain thanks to bargain-hunting and short-covering in select blue chips such as TDK, KDDI and CSK.

HONDA MOTOR 3Q PROFIT RISES 31%
Reports better-than-expected profit growth for its fiscal third quarter, as solid car and motorcycle sales in Asia and North America more than offset a slump in Japan. Analysts had expected a slight fall on year.

ADECCO SAYS NO EVIDENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FRAUD
Ongoing internal accounting probe finds no major irregularities yet, but Adecco voices concern about minor bookkeeping mistakes found in certain countries. Shares up 12.5%, after falling about 26% since finding accounting flaps in North America.

BLOCKBUSTER TO EXIT HONG KONG
Will close its 24 stores in the city over next 18 months as their leases expire blaming high rents, four years after it acquired 19 stores from bankrupt video chain KPS. Movie-rental firm also decides not to expand in China.

NYSE CHIEF MULLS ELECTRONIC TRADING
Two weeks into his tenure as CEO, John Thain considers making a big leap into the realm of electronic trading. Move comes as institutional investors have become increasingly critical of the Big Board open-auction system.

STEWART JUDGE DELAYS FANEUIL TESTIMONY
Judge in Martha Stewart trial postpones testimony of former Merrill brokerage assistant Douglas Faneuil for a week after defense says prosecutors delayed turning over FBI report that raises doubts about some government allegations.

GMAC CLOSE TO SETTLING RACIAL-BIAS SUIT
General Motors&aposs finance arm offers to put tighter limits on increases car dealers can impose on interest rates set by GMAC as part of a settlement of a class-action lawsuit alleging its lending policies harm black car buyers.

PROBE INTO COKE&aposS SALES LEADS TO JAPAN
Three former finance officials say they witnessed a company practice of overstating financial results by shipping excessive beverage concentrate to bottlers in Japan.

EU REJECTS US SANCTION REQUEST
Rejects calls to extend its March 1 deadline for imposing billions of dollars of trade sanctions in retaliation for U.S. exporter tax breaks, saying Congress still has enough time to pass a law ending the breaks by that date.

YELLOW ROADWAY FALLS ON 4Q LOSS
Shares tumble 10% after hours as company swings to 4Q loss of $672,000, or 2c a share, compared with year-ago profit, due to charges related to Roadway acquisition. Excluding items, earnings of 71c a share miss estimates by 7c.

ANGLOGOLD NET FALLS ON LOWER GOLD OUTPUT
Full-year net profit falls 6% to $312 million as annual gold output falls to 5.6 million ounces from 5.9 million. Posts 4Q net profit of $93 million, down from $97 million a year ago. Operating profit falls almost 10%, EPS falls to 42c.

AXA&aposS MONY BID FACES MORE PRESSURE
Mony&aposs second-biggest shareholder, Highfields Capital Management, won&apost bring its 4.63% stake to the $31 per-share AXA offer, bringing the number of dissenting shareholders to four, representing about 15% of Mony&aposs total capital.


======= DOW JONES NEWSWIRES ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARIES =======

CHARTING MARKETS
Commodity Futures To Rally Early
Steady-to-higher early CRB Index trading will signal rally toward first resistance of 261.84. DJIA short-term technically strong above first support of 10437.78, but an early dip is probably.

MARK TO MARKET
Productivity Miracle Marches On
Jim Murphy projects a 5.5% gain in 4Q GDP, above Dow Jones Newswires call for a 4.8% increase, and says a move above 6% wouldn&apost be stunning after Fed drops "for a considerable period" from its post-meeting statement.

============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========
DJIA 10510.29 from Thursday.
NASDAQ 2068.23 from Thursday.
S&P 500 1134.11 from Thursday.
10-year T-note down 2/32 at 100 16/32 yield 4.186
NYMEX Spot Crude up $0.38 at $33.19/bbl
Dollar/Euro down 0.0021 at 1.2385

This is why the sudden drop

+DJ US GDP Rose At 4.0% Rate In 4th Qtr

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ Real Final Sales Rose At 3.4% In 4th Qtr

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ PCE Price Index Dn At 0.6% Rate In 4th Qtr

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ Domestic Purchases Price Index Dn at 1.0% Rate In 4Q

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
*DJ US GDP Rose 3.1% for the year 2003

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2004 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
=DJ DATA SNAP: US GDP Slows In 4Q; Economy Grows 3.1% In &apos03
==========================================================
Gross Domestic Product 4th 3rd 2nd Surprise: Yes !
Overall GDP Growth 4.0% 8.2% 3.1% Survey: +4.8% !
PCE Price Index 0.6% 1.8%r 0.5% Trend: Economy!
Rising !
=========================================================

By Elizabeth Price
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. output growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter from the heated pace of the previous period, but continued to show broadbased strength throughout the economy.
Fourth quarter gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 4.0% annual rate, about half the unrevised 8.2% rate reported for the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday.
Solid contributions from personal consumption, exports, equipment and software, inventory investment and residential investment supported growth in the last quarter of the year, Commerce said. The strong finish brought annual GDP to a 3.1% advance for 2003.
Still, growth in the fourth quarter was slower than Wall Street had predicted. A Dow Jones Newswires-CNBC survey of 23 economists forecast growth of 4.8% for the quarter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, rose 2.6% in the fourth quarter, on top of 6.9% spending growth in the third quarter. Purchases of durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, increased 0.9%, after a 28% gain in the prior period. Non-durable purchases rose 4.4%, following the third quarter&aposs 7.3% rise.
Government spending rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 1.8% rise in the third quarter. Federal government spending increased by 0.7%, while state and local government spending climbed 0.9%.
Business investment rose 6.9% during the fourth quarter, slowing from a 12.8% advance in the third. Investment in non-residential structures fell 3.0% during the quarter, a sharper decline than the 1.8% decrease reported for the third quarter. Spending on equipment and software rose 10%, after the third quarter gain of 17.6%. Spending on housing rose 10.6%, after a 21.9% gain.
Overall private investment was up 12.4% in the fourth quarter, following a 14.8% gain in the third.
Businesses built inventories by $6.1 billion during the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion and $4.5 billion in the prior two quarters.
Real final sales of domestic product - that is, GDP less the change in private inventories - rose at a 3.4% annual rate. Third-quarter real final sales climbed at an 8.3% annual rate.
Exports, supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and stronger demand abroad, climbed by 19.1% in the fourth quarter, while imports advanced by 11.3%.
The government report suggested inflation edged down in the final quarter of the year. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose at a 1.0% rate; the index had gone up 1.8% in the third quarter. The government&aposs price index for personal consumption also slowed to a 0.6% rate during the fourth quarter, down from 1.8% in the third quarter.
For the year 2003, the price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.9%, a pick-up from 1.4% recorded in 2002

Hi Testex,

Sorry for late reply, been playing at packhorse for Mrs. Melnibone's
shopping. She usually has Friday off from work.

I've been quite cautious this January. As posted, I made a pig's ear
of the first weeks trading and have been carefully making it back and
going into profit again. The danger when you put a string of losing
decisions together is to abandon your strategy and try and 'win it back'
with clouded judgement and too big a position size.
Back on course now.

What you describe with positions running away from you, seems to be
the personal psychological battle we all fight every day. We're so
used to the market taking profit straight back that we get anxious
to take it whilst it's there.
The answer is to move a take profit stop up in line with the price
action. Stick to your rules and it takes the decision away from you.

The only problem I have with building up a dividend stake over a month
is that a lot can happen in a month. I would rather let the market
show me where it's going than anticipate that far ahead and maybe
take a 3% divi on a stock that drops 5% in a falling market.
But if it works for you, then go for it.

Melnibone.

I bought some STAN this morning for my long term portfolio (last lot bought 13 jan & sold 20 jan as showing 5% profit) as I am trying to keep some for the dividend (trouble is my gain keeps exceeding the div, so I don't hold!)

Fortunetly they dropped back again so I picked them up again. The results are due out the 18th February and they are on record as say that the figures are expected to exceed earlier estimates by a comfortable margin.

Glad I did my trading this morning, couldn't trade at all
this afternoon as unable to log in.

Tried the fix's as advised by the help desk but no joy.
In the end I was advised that my platform was probably
corrupted and I had to uninstall it and download a fresh
copy.

21Mb download later................

Finally back online and missed that nice drop.

Good luck with the new HBOS strategy Testex.

I'm watching STAN as well, little woman, that's why I did
an overnight scalp on it.
Can't decide if it's at the bottom of a trading range, or
trading in a new downtrend channel. That's the impression
I'm getting for a lot of charts at the moment, nothing is
really clear.

Still, makes life interesting, doesn't it, if it was too easy
everyone would be doing it and nobody would work anymore. :-))

Melnibone.

MONDAY FTSE PP

R2 4451
R1 4421
PP 4406
S1 4375
S2 4360

Fri close was below s1 after loosing 4.3pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4370 unless we get a brk out of the downtrend at 4405 to target 4420, all down to 10480 dow for direction imho!

MONDAY FUTURES PP

R2 4441
R1 4416
PP 4389
S1 4364
S2 4337

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4484
R1 4437
PP 4414
S1 4367
S2 4344

Caught on the wrong side Fri long looking for short closing into weekend, instead got longs panicking closing and shorts comfortable to hold, a sign for next week? Major 10 month uptrend is now broken at 4420, ftse is looking a litte OS atm, so maybe some defensve by the bulls, but on the whole I,m quite bearish for next week, 10375 the level to watch on the dow to try and hold any longer term moves next week, feel we could test the weekly s2 at 4344 imho next week!

Have a good weekend!

Thanks PB