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Traders Thread Friday 18th June 2004 (CROC)
Martini
- 17 Jun 2004 21:13
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| AGM / EGM CASH : Cardpoint HCU : Hitachi Capital (UK) LLOY : Lloyds-TSB OCN : Ocean Wilson Holdings PAQ : Property Acquisition & Management SLH : Shiloh STT : Straight TSCO : Tesco Economic 09.30 May prov M4/M4 lending 09.30 May capital issuance 09.30 BBA May net sterling lending 09.30 CML May mortgage lending 09.30 BSA mortgage lending data 09.30 May PSNCR | Company Acuity Brands Inc. (AYI) AG Edwards Inc. (AGE) Chattem Inc. (CHTT) Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC) InterVoice Inc. (INTV) Isle of Capri Casinos, (ISLE) John Wiley & Sons Inc (JW/A) Morgan Stanley (MWD) Shermag Inc. (C$) (SMG) Steelcase Inc. (SCS)Economic 1:30 BST Current Account Q1 Exp -$140.9B Prev -$127.5B | Economic07.00 Germany Producer prices (Month) May est 0.6% prev 0.4% 07.00 Germany Producer prices (Year) May est 1.7% prev 0.9% | |||
Douggie - 18 Jun 2004 08:49 - 7 of 19
mornin all
jj50
- 18 Jun 2004 09:03
- 8 of 19
Morning all. My telephone line has been down for days as a 13 year old set light to the exchange, so a bit of catching up to do! I seem to remember last witching was something of a damp squid.
Melnibone - 18 Jun 2004 10:27 - 9 of 19
Morning all.
Getting bored with this.
Just been scalping for pennies this week.
Long CFD UK stocks on the dips and short US index spreadbets
on the peaks.
No losing trades, but it seems a lot of effort for small rewards
to me. Hope it's not going to be like this right up to the Fed
meeting at the end of the month.
Not much buying pressure in the markets, but equally there doesn't
seem to be a lot of selling pressure either when we hit the highs.
Complacancy, lethargy, apathy?
Pick your own word.
Although swing charts are vaguely showing up on the FTSE and down
on the DOW/NDX, they are not conclusive, IMHO.
We appear to be trendless as far as I can see.
Just going to keep scalping until the market decides and I can put
a decent swing trade on that I can build into for a decent reward.
Melnibone.
Getting bored with this.
Just been scalping for pennies this week.
Long CFD UK stocks on the dips and short US index spreadbets
on the peaks.
No losing trades, but it seems a lot of effort for small rewards
to me. Hope it's not going to be like this right up to the Fed
meeting at the end of the month.
Not much buying pressure in the markets, but equally there doesn't
seem to be a lot of selling pressure either when we hit the highs.
Complacancy, lethargy, apathy?
Pick your own word.
Although swing charts are vaguely showing up on the FTSE and down
on the DOW/NDX, they are not conclusive, IMHO.
We appear to be trendless as far as I can see.
Just going to keep scalping until the market decides and I can put
a decent swing trade on that I can build into for a decent reward.
Melnibone.
zarif
- 18 Jun 2004 10:40
- 10 of 19
saxo bank analyis
DAX falls further -- objective of 3625 - 3810 may be reached next week; a new bull market to 4500 follows
Producer prices in Germany rose for a fourth month in May as costs for energy and raw materials increased. Prices for goods ranging from toys to machine tools rose 0.5 percent from April.
June 18, 2004 - EUROPE
- Producer prices in Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose for a fourth month in May as costs for energy and raw materials increased. Prices for goods ranging from toys to machine tools rose 0.5 percent from April, when they increased 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists expected an increase of 0.4 percent, the median of 24 forecasts. From a year ago, prices increased 1.6 percent.
- Norwegian oil workers went on strike, cutting output from the world's third-largest oil exporter, after two unions failed to reach a pension accord with employers. About 200 workers at North Sea fields operated by Statoil ASA, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp. have ceased work, said Bjoern Tjessem, deputy leader of the OFS labor union. The action affects fields with total output of 455,000 barrels a day. Closure of all the fields would cost producers 115 million kroner ($16.6 million) daily, the Norwegian Oil Industry Association said. Lower output from Norway, which pumps about 3 million barrels of oil a day, may boost oil prices that have risen 18 percent this year as violence in Iraq curbs global supplies
- Crude oil futures rose to their highest in eight days after U.S. officials discounted an early resumption of exports from Iraq's terminals on the Persian Gulf. Iraq's southern pipeline network was sabotaged on Monday and Tuesday, stopping oil flows from the country's biggest terminals for the second time in less than six weeks. Clare Baxter, a spokeswoman for the U.S.-led occupation authority said yesterday that exports from Iraq, which pumped about 2.6 percent of world supply in May, won't resume until Tuesday at the earliest. Prices surged 3.1 percent yesterday after car bombs exploded near an army recruitment center in Baghdad and outside a government office in Yethrib, killing at least 41 people. Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as 37 cents, or 1 percent, to $38.83 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $38.67 at 1:06 p.m. Singapore time. The more actively traded August contract rose 14 cents to $38.95.
Equity Market Summary -
Asian stocks dropped, after economic reports in China and the U.S. fueled concern their central banks will slow growth with higher interest rates. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks in the region, shed 0.7 percent to 88.81, its first drop in four days, at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo. Stocks also declined after oil prices in New York yesterday had the biggest advance in more than two weeks. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average shed 1 percent to 11,497.11, set for its second weekly drop in three. South Korea's Kospi index tumbled 1.8 percent to 746.34. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.7 percent to 11,880.65.
U.S. stocks finished lower in directionless trading on Thursday. A stronger than expected increase in producer prices applied the selling pressure early on, although a pair of reports released later in the day provided some upside lift. Both May leading indicator and June Philly Fed figures bested the consensus, with the latter report offering some bullish news in terms of pricing pressures. The three key price-related components of the survey – prices paid, prices received and delivery times – edged lower during the month.
The Dow and S&P finished slightly in the red, while the Nasdaq ended the session with a more sizable loss. Dow -2.06 at 10377.52, Nasdaq -14.56 at 1983.67, S&P 500 -1.53 at 1132.03
Equity Technicals:
- DAX Index - the index did fall later in the day, and bingo. A small uptick early on should be followed by further declines. We continue to hold on to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3810 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.
- FTSE 100 Index - the index was neutral -- no change in the short-term bearish view -- we still hold out for the scenario of a short-term cascade to the 4410 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4525. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the ideal area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.
- S&P 500 - the index fell then tried to recover -- but it closed on a weak note. We should see more declines today, which may eventually bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.
- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the index failed again to break through -- a negative sign -- so the Dow should fall further again today. The main scenario remains -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150 in the next few days. And we still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Nonetheless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.
- NDX 100 - the index was hammered early on, the late session yielded a weak consolidative phase, so it very likely that the weakness will extend further today. No change to our main scenario: the index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. However, a new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.
- Nikkei - the index is finally accelerating lower and the scenario of a +test of the base+ decline to 11,000 is now looking much better. A new bull market should emanate from there however, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.
- Hang Seng - the index fell sharply, and should fall further next week. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 - 11,500 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.
DAX falls further -- objective of 3625 - 3810 may be reached next week; a new bull market to 4500 follows
Producer prices in Germany rose for a fourth month in May as costs for energy and raw materials increased. Prices for goods ranging from toys to machine tools rose 0.5 percent from April.
June 18, 2004 - EUROPE
- Producer prices in Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose for a fourth month in May as costs for energy and raw materials increased. Prices for goods ranging from toys to machine tools rose 0.5 percent from April, when they increased 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists expected an increase of 0.4 percent, the median of 24 forecasts. From a year ago, prices increased 1.6 percent.
- Norwegian oil workers went on strike, cutting output from the world's third-largest oil exporter, after two unions failed to reach a pension accord with employers. About 200 workers at North Sea fields operated by Statoil ASA, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp. have ceased work, said Bjoern Tjessem, deputy leader of the OFS labor union. The action affects fields with total output of 455,000 barrels a day. Closure of all the fields would cost producers 115 million kroner ($16.6 million) daily, the Norwegian Oil Industry Association said. Lower output from Norway, which pumps about 3 million barrels of oil a day, may boost oil prices that have risen 18 percent this year as violence in Iraq curbs global supplies
- Crude oil futures rose to their highest in eight days after U.S. officials discounted an early resumption of exports from Iraq's terminals on the Persian Gulf. Iraq's southern pipeline network was sabotaged on Monday and Tuesday, stopping oil flows from the country's biggest terminals for the second time in less than six weeks. Clare Baxter, a spokeswoman for the U.S.-led occupation authority said yesterday that exports from Iraq, which pumped about 2.6 percent of world supply in May, won't resume until Tuesday at the earliest. Prices surged 3.1 percent yesterday after car bombs exploded near an army recruitment center in Baghdad and outside a government office in Yethrib, killing at least 41 people. Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as 37 cents, or 1 percent, to $38.83 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $38.67 at 1:06 p.m. Singapore time. The more actively traded August contract rose 14 cents to $38.95.
Equity Market Summary -
Asian stocks dropped, after economic reports in China and the U.S. fueled concern their central banks will slow growth with higher interest rates. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks in the region, shed 0.7 percent to 88.81, its first drop in four days, at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo. Stocks also declined after oil prices in New York yesterday had the biggest advance in more than two weeks. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average shed 1 percent to 11,497.11, set for its second weekly drop in three. South Korea's Kospi index tumbled 1.8 percent to 746.34. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.7 percent to 11,880.65.
U.S. stocks finished lower in directionless trading on Thursday. A stronger than expected increase in producer prices applied the selling pressure early on, although a pair of reports released later in the day provided some upside lift. Both May leading indicator and June Philly Fed figures bested the consensus, with the latter report offering some bullish news in terms of pricing pressures. The three key price-related components of the survey – prices paid, prices received and delivery times – edged lower during the month.
The Dow and S&P finished slightly in the red, while the Nasdaq ended the session with a more sizable loss. Dow -2.06 at 10377.52, Nasdaq -14.56 at 1983.67, S&P 500 -1.53 at 1132.03
Equity Technicals:
- DAX Index - the index did fall later in the day, and bingo. A small uptick early on should be followed by further declines. We continue to hold on to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3810 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.
- FTSE 100 Index - the index was neutral -- no change in the short-term bearish view -- we still hold out for the scenario of a short-term cascade to the 4410 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4525. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the ideal area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.
- S&P 500 - the index fell then tried to recover -- but it closed on a weak note. We should see more declines today, which may eventually bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.
- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the index failed again to break through -- a negative sign -- so the Dow should fall further again today. The main scenario remains -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150 in the next few days. And we still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Nonetheless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.
- NDX 100 - the index was hammered early on, the late session yielded a weak consolidative phase, so it very likely that the weakness will extend further today. No change to our main scenario: the index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. However, a new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.
- Nikkei - the index is finally accelerating lower and the scenario of a +test of the base+ decline to 11,000 is now looking much better. A new bull market should emanate from there however, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.
- Hang Seng - the index fell sharply, and should fall further next week. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 - 11,500 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.
Big Al
- 18 Jun 2004 14:40
- 11 of 19
Morning from Houston.
Still long JKX (going well), MRS (flat) and short WHT (beautiful downtrend)
This thead very quiet.
Have a good day
Al
Still long JKX (going well), MRS (flat) and short WHT (beautiful downtrend)
This thead very quiet.
Have a good day
Al
seawallwalker
- 18 Jun 2004 15:02
- 12 of 19
Big Al
I saw your first refernece to JKX last week, and have watched it gain since.
Darn good spot there.
Do you think there is much more in it?
I saw your first refernece to JKX last week, and have watched it gain since.
Darn good spot there.
Do you think there is much more in it?
Big Al
- 18 Jun 2004 15:24
- 13 of 19
seawallwalker
Dunno. It's had a very good breakout and may be due a rest. Its entry into smallcap index last week may well have helped. Momentum still good, but may look to take the money soon. Quid was my initial tgt, but it's got there very quick. Will keep them for now and see how it goes.
Dunno. It's had a very good breakout and may be due a rest. Its entry into smallcap index last week may well have helped. Momentum still good, but may look to take the money soon. Quid was my initial tgt, but it's got there very quick. Will keep them for now and see how it goes.
Velocity
- 18 Jun 2004 15:37
- 14 of 19
might be fun if it closes over a fiver....
seawallwalker
- 18 Jun 2004 16:01
- 15 of 19
Sounds fair.
This always happens to me.
I take a fancy to a stock, track it, watch it rise, see the odd comment such as yours, (thanks for these, they are good), then I watch others make the money.
Still at least I still have what I started with but I am not sure that is they way to play this game!!!
This always happens to me.
I take a fancy to a stock, track it, watch it rise, see the odd comment such as yours, (thanks for these, they are good), then I watch others make the money.
Still at least I still have what I started with but I am not sure that is they way to play this game!!!
jj50
- 18 Jun 2004 16:45
- 16 of 19
Very quiet here. All at Ascot? TSCO had a good day. Pretty average week all told otherewise, so think I shall head out in to the sun.
Big Al, JKX doing nicely I see. Hope Houston is treating you well. Some excitement here with telephones cut off between here and Gullane, so you are not missing much - even banks closed, cashpoints out of operation and couldn't use Visa - who needs terrorists, one thirteen year old did it all!
Big Al, JKX doing nicely I see. Hope Houston is treating you well. Some excitement here with telephones cut off between here and Gullane, so you are not missing much - even banks closed, cashpoints out of operation and couldn't use Visa - who needs terrorists, one thirteen year old did it all!
zarif
- 18 Jun 2004 16:50
- 17 of 19
JJ50 - the only place buzzing is Gds cafe with the Gigis and "chasing the dragon" smokes. Markets quiet aswell .Managed a quick long on the dow and out bought it at preopen when it was at -28 and closed it just before at 65 so managed 93pts in one swoop. That will put a smile on my face at the weekend-until the handbrake finds out.they have ways and means of getting our secrets out.Quadruple withching today so am just watching to see any drastic moves.
rgds
zarif
rgds
zarif
Big Al
- 18 Jun 2004 16:56
- 18 of 19
seawallwalker - we all do it. I've missed an awful lot more trades than I've taken. Keep an eye on a stock seeing what it does and maybe trade the fact it's moved a similar way before.
jj - very hot and humid. Saw the news in Musselburgh exchange. Unbelievable. Amazing how everything can grind to a halt so easily.
jj - very hot and humid. Saw the news in Musselburgh exchange. Unbelievable. Amazing how everything can grind to a halt so easily.
zarif
- 18 Jun 2004 16:59
- 19 of 19
Big Al: Hi or (should we say Howdy),hope u are enjoying yourself all work and no play is no fun.I hear the steaks are very good there go and devour some.Weather wise hot and humid is a better option than Rain in Ellesmereport.Have a good weekend
zarif
zarif
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