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below is copy of Tom Hougards email I recieved last night.

Good morning,



It is nice to finally be out of the expiration week. We settled right in the middle of the range for the day and also in the middle of the range for the week. From history we know that as we go before the expiration we will go after the expiration. As we went nowhere last week this could easily happen again. I am somewhat bearish the market even though we are consolidating below the recent highs so let me be more specific.



I will be bearish below 1132 in the SP500 September contract. I will also consider short positions if the Dow hits 10480 with a stop above 10520. I am already short the NASDAQ 100 September contract. I am looking for a trip down to 1420 on this contract. I would prefer to see lower prices early on in the week. I got Monday as a fairly neutral range day with a negative bias (despite the big mark up in the market this morning). I got Tuesday as a definite down day in my analysis and confirmation of weakness comes from trading below 1132. Above 1142 will most likely cause short covering and a lot of breakout traders entering the market. I will short weakness and not strength, and any move above 1142, in particular after expiration, can cause the kind of vertical moves that I have seen countless times after expiration. Dont get in the way of those moves.



NASDAQ is definitely not a happy index and I am already short here. I think we will see weakness here first and I will add to positions less than 1470.



The European markets are a mixed bag this morning with the FTSE down for the day and the DAX up for the day. I am fully aware of the bullish potential, in particular in the SP500. The all-time high in March 2000 was 1553. The 24th June is 1553 days from the all-time high and I am waiting for this time and price square out to occur



We are entering a time period in the market with huge cyclical turns. One is the square out but I also got cycles from the All-time high, the 9/11 low, the bear market low and the highs in February. Additionally I got the big master cycles pointing to a momentum move within the next 10 trading days. It is without doubt going to be a mover and I would advice you to stay on your toes.



What are the obstacles? We got the Iraq handover at the end of the month. If this can take place without any disturbances the market will be pleased and will begin to look forward to the election. Seasonally and statistically this would mean rising equity prices into September or longer. Until the 30th deadline the market could be nervous. However, the flipside is the month-end and quarter-end mark up. Funds will look to mark up stock holdings going into the last day of the month. This will add to volatility.



I am long gold and I think this commodity is on the verge of breaking higher. Unfortunately I dont know what the earthly implications are for rising prices or to be precise what gold is pricing in? Is it the Iraq handover? Is it the Money Supply situation in the US? Who knows? Any suggestions are welcome. Either way the metal is moving higher and I want to be onboard. I bet small in this as it can be quite volatile. That is one advantage of a spread betting account. You can trade a commodity in a size that suits you.



By the way I do from time to time post on www.TacticalTrader.com . It is a very good site with good posters and a nice atmosphere. It is free as well.



I promised myself last week not to disclose my positions again. I mentioned what I was trading and what my positions were. Unfortunately I received a flood of questions whether I was still in or I had taken profits. If you decide to take out positions in the market, then decide upon your stop before hand. If you dont know how to derive buy or sell signals using for example mathematical trend lines or geometry then dont follow my calls ( which is you own responsibility either way). If you want to learn these methods then feel free to drop me an email. I will then contact you later in the year when I am running seminars.



Today is solstice. It is the day when the sun stands at its highest point on heaven. It is a seasonal turn date. Does solstice ever mark a turning point in the markets?

Answer: I can only answer for the equity market and only for the Dow and only for the last 25 years (because I have to do it manually and it is time consuming). Hopefully a sample space of 25 years against a history of 125 years will suffice.

The conclusion is in my opinion ( visually and not a mathematical opinion - i.e. I have not performed rigorous checks ) that SOLSTICE - the point in the year - a seasonal date according to Gann and others - where the sun is highest on the heaven - DOES NOT MARK A SIGNIFICANT TURN IN TREND enough times to make it statistically significant.

Of the 25 years I went through the Dow had 5 significant turns on this day or the day before or after.

14 years saw no significant change in trend.

10 years saw a slight change in trend - for as little as two days and as much as 5 days but within a confined range.
Of the 10 years there were 5 years where the 21st market a low or high for the next month or more.





I wish you a happy trading week.



Tom

Morning all

Morning all.

mornin all

Morning all,

Nothing has changed. I'd post a Ftse P&F chart, but it hasn't
changed since the last one I posted when Noah was a lad.
So there's not a lot of point.

Doing the same as the market and just scalping pennies.

OOM seems to be near support to me. I've an idea it's been dragged
down by VOD which is trying to break the 124p support.

Today will be all down as whether the S@P can get back above 1132.
If not then it needs to hold 1128 or all the Indices will take a little
slide. All IMHO, as usual, and not trading predictions, just what
I'm looking at for some sort of guidance.

Melnibone.

Tom Hougards email fot todays analysis.

Good morning,



I got the downside I was looking for in the NASDAQ. Stops are in. I still got today as a down day as well, but I am wary that there was a spill-over from the cycle and I got most of the downside yesterday. I still would like to see 1420 in the NASDAQ and will run the position. The problem (there are always problems in the market and things to watch out for J ) I have is the month-end pattern. We have 7 days left of the month and the quarter. In this time period we tend to see the market make an effort to push higher to mark up Wall Streets portfolios. It is common practise and something you should be aware of.



Technically I would say to you that as long as the market is below 1142 but above 1132 in the SP500 the market is neutral and is just market time. A move above is bullish and a move below is bearish. Yesterday we tried for the 1128 but held. You may recall that the 1128 was the support area from the decline earlier in the month, funnily enough also on a Monday!!



1132 will now be new resistance I would expect traders come in and defend the 1128 today. I doubt very much anyone is interested in lower prices but if it does trade lower short positions are required and the first target is 1122 and then 1108.



The key will be the financials like banks and brokers. Many of them are reporting shortly, and most of them have had sizeable declines since the February highs. I would watch this group closely. You should also pay attention to the old generals like GE and MSFT. When the Dow drops 80 points intra-day and those two still hold up for the day, it is a sign of strength.



So the conclusion is unfortunately a mixed bag. I am short NASDAQ. I suspect that the SP500 will not attract any major selling until we are below 1128. There is very little to add.



IBM is a very interesting stock to follow. It tracks the big indices very well and has beautiful patterns and cycles. IBM is in a make-or-break situation. The blue line shows that IBM traded above this price level of $90 for 3 years. In April 2002 IBM broke $90 in a gap down which took 94 weeks to fill. The challenge is always to trade what you see and not what you think. It is even better to trade with the idea that you have to second-guess what they are thinking. In this case they are the big funds. IBM is a real bell weather and tracks the economic cycle well. I have included the volume figures for the chart as well. We are right at the critical $89/90 price level. The chart pattern is bullish but the volume is telling a different story. It points out that the last years rally has been on declining volume. That is not a bullish sign but you got to give the pattern the benefit of the doubt. If the latter part of the year is bullish I think IBM will perform well and regain $100. Use the $89 as a pivot. Have you ever heard the saying: Dont short a dull market? That is my concern here. We are simply doing nothing because no one really wants to sell and everyone is holding out for the summer rally.



Well, you are prepared price wise. Just follow the levels given in the SP500 and use prudent stops.



Tom

Took the OOM profit on that last bounce.
Just over 1% profit in a few hours will do in these markets.
I'll take anything I can get.

Waiting for US direction now.

Melnibone.

Just read your TomH. post Zarif.

He's looking at exactly the same levels I quoted this morning.
That would indicate that the majority of traders are looking
to trade the same levels.

God forbid that we end up with a 4 point trading range on the
S&P this afternoon with the odd point foray either side of it.

That really would turn me comatose.

Melnibone.

Half an hour gone and the S&P is stuck bang in the middle
of the 1128/1132 range after a brief foray to test the 1128
support.

Yawn.

Melnibone.

RBS down on support.
This is the level it dropped down to when it announced it's
latest proposed purchase and a share issue to help pay for it.

Melnibone.