London shares outlook - seen lower as China rate hike continues to unsettle

LONDON (AFX) - Leading shares are expected to open lower this morning, hit by an uninspiring performance by Wall Street last night as China's rate hike heightens global economic concerns, dealers said.
According to spread-betting firm IG Index, the FTSE 100 is expected to open around 7 points lower at 4,635 after closing at 4642.80 yesterday.
On Wall Street last night, US stocks ended little changed as profit taking after recent gains and concerns over the impact of China's first rate hike for nine years outweighed sliding oil prices and dragged stocks from their highs in late trade.
The DJIA closed 2.51 points higher at 10,004.54, while the Nasdaq added 5.75 points to 1,975.74.
Across Asia overnight, the Nikkei 225 index began its afternoon session 102.23 points lower at 10,750.89, while the Hang Seng was 40.46 points lower at 13,072.69 by midday.
The UK market looks like having a relatively quiet morning today, giving traders a chance to wind down after yesterday's busy session.
Third quarter new business figures from Aviva should however, provide some early excitement. In a recent preview, Goldman Sachs said it expects the insurer to announce a headline insurance APE figure of 1,807 mln stg for the first nine months of 2004, a 3.5 pct increase from 1,745 mln stg for the same period last year. For the third quarter, the US broker said it is forecasting 583 mln stg compared with 533 mln stg for the same period last year, although down 5 pct on the second quarter of this year.
Elsewhere, banking stocks could move higher in early deals following robust third quarter numbers from Deutsche Bank this morning.
Figures from the German banking giant came in at the top end of expectations thanks to strong trading results.
On the economic front, US third quarter GDP is expected to come in at 4.3 pct, up from 3.2 pct in the second quarter, while Chicago PMI is seen coming in at 59.1 pct against 61.3 pct in the previous year.
Meanwhile October employment cost index figures and October consumer sentiment data will also be closely eyed.

AVIVA 9 MTHS NEW BUSINESS MARGIN 26.4 PCT VS 25.0 PCT
AVIVA SEES 'EARLY SIGNS' OF GRADUAL RECOVERY IN UK INSURANCE MARKET

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,642.8 up 12.7
FTSE 250 6,326.5 up 4.0
DJIA 10,004.50 up 2.50
Nasdaq Comp 1,975.74 up 5.75
S&P 500 1,127.45 up 2.05
Tokyo: Nikkei 10,771.42 down 81.70
Hang Seng midday 13,072.69 down 40.46
Gold 425.72 usd (425.52 usd)
Oil - Brent Dec 48.37 usd (49.45 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* Chinese rise in interest rates sends world financial markets into a spin - FT
* Nationwide detects 0.4 pct drop in house prices
* RYANAIR offer on state-aid fine; low-cost airline chief offers to put 2.8 mln stg demanded by Belgian authorities into escrow account pending appeal over Charleroi deal - FT

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on China (in nominal terms, China accounts for just 3 pct of the global economy; however, in sentiment terms, it packs a growing punch; that should give investors pause for thought, particularly with China's policymaking process so unpredictable and opaque), ROYAL DUTCH SHELL, ExxonMobil, France Telecom - ICI (looks to be potential for a further re-rating) - BLacks Leisure (rating looks on the undemanding side) - RETAIL DECISIONS (may have a lot further to go)
Mail
ULTRASIS (Colin Blackbourn, known as the Black Prince, rumoured to be sniffing around)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: GLAXOSMITHKLINE (buy), AMVESCAP (investors should hold on to see what happens in case of a bid; outsiders should stay on the outside for a while yet)
Express
WHO'S DEALING: REGAL PETROLEUM (executive chairman buys 150,000 shares at 332 pence) - SHARE WHISPER: ZARI RESOURCES (rumours of a major exploration breakthrough) - WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS (Panmure Gordon reiterates sell)
Guardian
COUNTRYSIDE PROPERTIES (property entrepreneur Paul Kemsley amasses an 11 pct stake) - LASTMINUTE.COM (block of 12 mln shares changes hands) - EBOOKERS (bid speculation)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: WHITBREAD (hang on), ICI (avoid), BLACKS LEISURE (worth checking out)
Times
RUMOUR OF THE DAY: PALMARIS CAPITAL (talk that a buyer is circling MINING SCOTLAND, the coal miner in which it holds a 23 pct stake and which accounts for half of its asset value) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: REGAL PETROLEUM (chairman buys stock for 480,000 stg) - GLAXOSMITHKLINE (this is the one to buy), AMVESCAP (avoid), BLACKS LEISURE (worth holding)
Investors Chronicle
TIPS - LARGE COMPANIES: BRITISH AIRWAYS (buy), PENDRAGON (buy), THE RESTAURANT GROUP (sell) - TIPS - SMALLER COMPANIES: HAMWORTHY (buy), ALBERMARLE & BOND (buy), FOUNTAINS (buy) - TIP UPDATES: HALLADALE (buy), PARKDEAN HOLIDAYS (buy), BIOCOMPATIBLES (buy)

Aviva PLC, the parent company of UK insurer Norwich Union, said its worldwide life and pensions sales were up 7 pct to 1.847 bln stg on an Annual Premium Equivalent basis in the nine months to September.
The growth in sales was larger than the 1.764-1.825 bln stg forecast by the market.
And it announced its worldwide new business margin widened to 26.4 pct from 25.0 pct a year ago. That was at the top end of market forecasts of 25.0-26.6 pct.
It said it can see some "early signs" of a recovery in the UK market, but warned that "this will be gradual".
Worldwide long-term savings new business sales were up 13 pct to 11.961 bln stg, with 11 pct growth in the UK and 17 pct growth in Continental European businesses.
Total bancassurance sales were up 11 pct to 2.839 bln stg, while worldwide investment sales rose 31 pct to 1.126 bln.
Annual premium equivalent (APE) is the UK industry's standard measure of new regular premiums and 10 pct of single premiums.
Chief executive Richard Harvey said: "Once again we have delivered good sales growth and improved new business profitability. We will continue this rigorous focus on profitable growth across our businesses."
He said the group had seen "strong" performances in the UK, France and the Netherlands, while in Italy and Spain underlying sales were up despite less favourable market conditions.

Morning punters

NOP - drilling programme
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041029070000PD604.html

MNT - the former BB darling! ;-)) #2 looks interesting
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041029070000Z6130.html
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041029070000Z6132.html

THG - trading update looks OK
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700015908E.html

DWY - Q1 results from every girl's best friend
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700015952E.html

PLL - realising some investment
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700025954E.html

MCA - Addenbrookes PFI - 30 year maintenance contract ain't bad
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700036007E.html

GFRD - AGM statement. Still buying land, but ahead on planned sales for the year
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700036024E.html

IMD - profit warning. Bit of a shame coz growth forecasts for the years ahead was pretty good.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700046036E.html

CIY - chart has been showing these results for ages
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700046037E.html

CPU - nothing! ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700066085E.html

PO. - concession in Le Havre
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700076109E.html

AV. - seems OK, but sector been battered recently
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700086116E.html

AOR - shares need a fillip; is this it? Was a real bio darling 4-5 years ago
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700096118E.html

SIA - the only small oil co. not gone through the roof this year
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700096121E.html

IGA - placing
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700096123E.html

ASG - contract for TV in bars. Only 30% repeat advertising bookers? Hmm
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700096125E.html

EQI - brief trading update. Was it worth it? ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700116131E.html

WIN - contract with GSK. These popped up in my "longs" filter a few days back
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700126142E.html

IDS - trading ahead of expectations
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700126143E.html

ITO - bit of a mixed bag interims?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700156148E.html

VTI - cash flow report for the quarter. This one's really fell away now and in need of a bounce
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410290700206167E.html

AEY - getting something out, but hardly earth-shattering production. It ain't gonna help this week or so's moves
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041029070047M6541.html

Have a good day!

Aviva ahead 7.5p at 553p in early deals....

Good morning all and thanks for the good information in the above posts.

Morning all!

Now ur with us, jj. ;-))

The FTSE 100 slipped back in early deals, as easing crude prices hit index heavyweights BP and Shell, while China's rate hike continued to weigh on the mining sector, dealers said.
By 09.15 am, the FTSE 100 was down 15.2 points at 4,627.6, although the broader indices were mixed.
On Wall Street last night, US stocks ended little changed as profit taking after recent gains and concerns over the impact of China's first rate hike for nine years outweighed sliding oil prices and dragged stocks from their highs in late trade.
The DJIA closed 2.51 points higher at 10,004.54, while the Nasdaq added 5.75 points to 1,975.74.
Across Asia overnight, the Nikkei 225 index began its afternoon session 102.23 points lower at 10,750.89, while the Hang Seng was down 40.46 points at 13,072.69 by midday.
Weakening oil prices continued to dominate sentiment in London today, with November crude slipping back to almost 50 usd a barrel overnight following reassuring comments on supply by OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro in Indonesia this morning.
Crude oil for December delivery fell by 1.54 US cents to its lowest level in three weeks to 50.92 usd a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange overnight.
In reaction, BP lost 4 pence to 538 while Shell eased 6-1/2 pence to 429, partly due to profit taking after yesterday's robust results.
Elsewhere, mining stocks remained under pressure as a negative sector note from Dresdner Kleinwort added to concerns over Chinese demand following yesterday's rate hike, traders noted
BHP Billiton fell 5 pence to 553 and Rio Tinto fell 3 pence to 1,420, after the German broker downgraded its rating on both stocks to 'hold' from 'buy' and lowered its sector stance to 'neutral' from 'overweight'.
Elsewhere among the fallers, Gallaher lost 9 pence to 685 following the uneventful passing of Japan Tobacco's interim results in Tokyo this morning.
The Japanese cigarette giant was rumoured to be interested in acquiring Gallaher.
WPP was also under pressure, losing 4-1/2 pence to 549 after Citigroup Smith Barney advised switching out of the UK media group into Publicis.
On the upside, robust nine month new business figures lifted Aviva shares 2 pence higher to 57-1/2.
Aviva announced that its worldwide life and pensions sales were up 7 pct to 1.847 bln stg on an Annual Premium Equivalent basis in the nine months to September.
The growth in sales was larger than the 1.764-1.825 bln stg forecast by the market.
In reaction, Merrill Lynch maintained its 'neutral' stance.
Sainsbury was another gainer, up 3 pence to 262 after the Wall Street Journal reported that the retailer has appointed Morgan Stanley and UBS to defend itself against takeover attempts.
Whitbread meanwhile, added 4-1/2 pence to 815 after bullish comments from Goldman Sachs following yesterday's interim figures.
The US broker maintained its 'outperform' recommendation.
British Airways was also in demand, up 3 pence to 217-1/2, thanks to easing fuel prices, although cautious comments on European airlines from Morgan Stanley limited gains.
On the economic front, US third quarter GDP is expected to come in at 4.3 pct, up from 3.2 pct in the second quarter, while Chicago PMI is seen coming in at 59.1 pct against 61.3 pct in the previous year.
Meanwhile October employment cost index figures and October consumer sentiment data will also be closely eyed.

Morning all,

Went last night to bowling in Guildford (organised by ambejane). I was late arriving, and left them at 1045pm still talking. Its was good to catch up and meet the everyone again, and the "newbies" of course.

FTSE 100 risers
British Airways 218-1/2 up 4
Crude price retreats
J Sainsbury 263-3/4 up 4-3/4
Numis 'buy'; bid speculation intensifies
Smith & Nephew 465 up 6-1/2
Brokers positive ahead of Q3 results Nov 4
Whitbread 817 up 6-1/2
Goldman Sachs 'outperform'; interims yesterday
mm02 105-3/4 up 3/4
ABN Amro reiterates 'buy' & raises target to 135 pence from 115
Shire Pharmaceuticals 526-1/2 up 1-3/4
Q3 results due Nov 4; Deutsche Bank/Williams de Broe 'buy'
BA 576 up 2-1/2
Interims due Tuesday
AstraZeneca 2,225 up 4
'Neutral' from 'underperform' with 2,400 pence target - WestLB
Vodafone 139-1/4 up 1/4
ABN Amro 'add' with target upped to 144 from 140; Investec 'buy'


FTSE 100 fallers
Shell 428-1/2 down 7
JP Morgan/Lehman 'underweight'
Cairn Energy 1,450 down 22
Profit-taking
ICI 209 down 2-1/2
Underweight' - Lehman; CSFB reiterates 'underperform'
BG Group 350-1/4 down 2-1/2
Crude price falls
BHP Billiton 554-1/2 down 3-1/2
'Hold' from 'buy' - Dresdner Kleinwort
Marks & Spencer 357-1/2 down 1/2
Interims Nov 9
Boots 662 down 1
CSFB 'underperform'
Rio Tinto 1,420 down 3
'Hold' from 'buy' - Dresdner Kleinwort
Severn Trent 923 down 3
'Reduce' from 'hold' - Dresdner Kleinwort


FTSE 250 risers
Morgan Crucible 156 up 4
Citigroup positive
Lonmin 1,020 up 10
Rally
Matalan 228-1/2 up 2
Interims due Tuesday
N Brown Group 129-1/4 up 1
Speculative support revives
Close Bros 663-1/2 up 9-1/2
Speculative support
Northumbrian Water 149-1/4 up 1/2
Dresdner Kleinwort 'add'


FTSE 250 fallers
Invensys 15 down 1/4
Q2 results due Nov 11
Warner Chilcott 853-1/2 down 13-1/2
Awaiting bid developments
AWG 727 down 3
Dresdner Kleinwort downgrades to 'hold'
Pennon Group 919 down 7
'Reduce' from 'hold' - Dresdner Kleinwort
Randgold Resources 597-1/2 down 1/2
Seymour Pierce 'sell'
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels 339 down 1
Merrill Lynch 'sell'


Other risers
Ideal Shopping Direct 146-1/2 up 24
FY profits of 3 mln stg-plus forecast by company
CybIT 1.62 up 0.12
mapAmobile acquisition
Wincanton 247 up 15
GlaxoSmithKline contract
Zari Resources 2.62 up 0.12
Talk of large oil discovery
Computerland UK 196-1/2 up 8
In-line trading update
Chloride 49 up 2
Interims yesterday
Clerkenwell Ventures 8.75
New issue placed at 7 pence
Isis Medical Technology 2.75
New issue placed at 1
Hamworthy 165 up 1
Investors Chronicle 'buy'
Albermarle & Bond 113-1/2 up 2
Investors Chronicle 'buy'
fountains 149-1/2 up 1
Investors Chronicle 'buy'
Halladale 92-1/2 up 1
Investors Chronicle 'buy'
Galliford Try 49 up 1/2
Upbeat AGM statement; Arbuthnot 'buy'


Other fallers
Catalyst Media 5-1/2 down 2-1/2
Company sees FY loss after tax of 2 mln stg as cost overruns hit H2
Independent Media Distribution 60-1/2 down 10-1/2
Current trading behind market expectations - company
Collins & Hayes Group 15 down 1
Halved interim profits
InTechnology 82-1/2 down 5
Interims
China Wonder 105 down 5
Profit-taking
Innovation Group 33-1/4 down 1
Results due Nov 22
Restaurant Group 106-1/2 down 1/2
'Hold' from 'add' - Altium Securities
fjb/ra

DRESDNER KLEINWORT
UK Miners; downgrades to Hold from Buy BHP Billiton, downgrades to Hold from Buy Rio Tinto -- Downgrades to Reduce from Hold Daimler Chrysler -- Downgrades to Hold AWG -- UK Water; Downgrades to Reduce from Hold Severn Trent and Pennon

NUMIS
Upgrades to Buy from Hold Sainsbury

WESTLB
Reiterates Neutral DCX, cuts target to 35 eur from 38 -- Buy VW, 40 eur target, cuts estimates -- Outperform Munich Re, cuts target to 95 eur from 103 -- Downgrades to Underperform from Outperform Glaxosmithkline, cuts target to 1100 pence from 1300 -- Upgrades to Neutral from Underperform AstraZeneca, 2400 pence target

JP MORGAN
Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight DaimlerChrysler -- Neutral ABB, cuts target to 7 sfr from 8, lowers estimates -- Neutral Alcatel, raises target to 12 eur

DEUTSCHE BANK
Reiterates Sell ABB, cuts target to 5 sfr from 6.5 -- Removes Renault from European Focus List -- Downgrades to Sell from Hold Julius Baer -- Hold TeliaSonera, raises estimates, ups target to 37 skr from 36 -- Hold Ubisoft, raises target to 20.75 eur from 16.5 -- Hold Xstrata, 910 pence target -- Sell ABB, cuts target to 5 sfr from 6.50

MORGAN STANLEY
Reiterates Underweight Fiat, cuts estimates -- European Airlines; Initiates coverage on Lufthansa as Overweight, Air France-KLM, Iberia, BA, Alitalia as Equalweight and SAS as Underweight -- Equalweight Alcatel, 9 eur target, cuts estimates -- Equalweight Royal Dutch, 45.5 eur target -- Overweight BBVA, raises target to 13 eur from 12 -- Overweight OTE, raises target, raises target to 13.9 eur from 12.5

PANMURE GORDON
Reiterates Sell Scottish & Newcastle, cuts target to 365 pence from 380

UBS
Upgrades to Neutral from Reduce Fiat, 5.5 eur target -- Downgrades to Neutral from Buy Vedior, cuts target to 13 from 14.2 eur -- Neutral Julius Baer, cuts target to 355 sfr from 380 -- Neutral JC Decaux, raises target to 20 eur from 19 -- Reduce Lonza, raises target to 52 sfr from 49 -- Downgrades to Neutral from Buy, 765 pence target -- Neutral Mucklow, cuts target to 345 pence from 355 -- Neutral Wincor Nixdorf, raises target to 57 eur from 50 -- Neutral KBC, raises target to 54.75 eur from 50.5 -- Reiterates Reduce VW, 25 eur target

SG SECURITIES
Downgrades to Hold from Buy Rhodia --

ABN AMRO
European telecoms; Reiterates Buy mmO2, raises target to 135 pence from 115 -- Add Vodafone, raises target to 155 from 140 -- Add TIM -- Downgrades to Reduce from Hold m6, cuts target to 19 eur from 22 -- Reduce TF1, cuts target to 21 from 21.5 eur

LEHMAN BROTHERS
Reiterates Overweight ABB, cuts estimates -- Equalweight Daimler Chrysler, cuts target to 30 eur from 38, lowers estimates

MERRILL LYNCH
Reiterates Buy Altana, lowers target to 50 eur -- Sell Millennium & Copthorne -- Sell Daimler Chrysler -- Sell Qiagen, cuts estimates

CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Downgrades to Sell from Hold ABB

CSFB
Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral Epcos