TheFrenchConnection
- 28 Mar 2006 03:52
- 19 of 655
.Most instutions have taken quite heady positions including 14.735 million shares bought and held by FMR Corp and Fidelity recently. , ln fact only a few days ago , FMR made it known to the LSE it had acquired & held 11.56 million stock on behalf of clients .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ln addition to this UBS hold a position of Lansdowne took a position of 11.65 million( to which they added several million in Jan 2006 taking their holding to a tad shy of 20 million . ......,,,,,,,,Thes are a plethora of principal holders who while not obliged to notify the S/E notification of 3% do happen to list then in their respective holdings / accounts etc etc ,,,,At last we have some company Roly . ..l think the market is only juste begining to to recognise its potential Of AFR ! ........Was 20p up today before falling back to a rise of 9.25 rise....... ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Following the debacle at Shell and its criminal declaration of erroneous reserves which were followed by NO LESS than 10 downward revisions , oil companies tend to be more careful now in c1 /2 /3/ assayal . . So much so that many assesments barely take into consideration the hassle of number crunching with C3 assesments. .. .Looking down from one of Total /Elf s amazing FPV's 200km off the coast of Nigeria -the size of ten parc des princes - you would never think these was a shortage of oil Never. lt seems engrained in everything . . . . Ten wells on The BP operated block 32 is backed by a 100% success rate . Results are much the same for all members of " BIg Oil " This well appears in surface area seems very small but when visualized by sophisticated graphix imagery/ software the surface area employed asto to show the presense of hydrocarbons embedded as low as 5km ... ; and in this case its its drillstrings of over 5km still show signs of hydrocarbon ( prob gas ) . But these are early days and enormous revenues are expected . . Sao Tome expected less than 280 million dollars for the 9 blocks but bids totalled $550 million were bid, and the block on JDZ 1 is alone expected to contain between $5 and 8 billion - ........The west coast of Africa are not like fields as is the Noth sea or Gulf of Mexico. but morelike Saudi wells which whlie relatively isolated are very VERY very DEEP huge area of oils with perhaps a few dozen offshoots that may demand in "Big Oil " inc BP s case offshore exporation so as to make it possible to get into the main resavoir . . From Morroco in the North to subsaharran dangerous Angola in the south oil is to be found . This has led experts to say -This is perhaps a new North sea . Certainly no Ghawar or even approaching the top ten "gushers " but wildcatters are a thing of the past so most wells are drilled with a degree of success iin mind. .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Look at Gwahar which has spewed out over 65 billion barrels since its spudding in the early 1930 s, and still throws up 1.8 bln barrels p/a .( yet it expounds more energy to secure the oil } !! Well we need to dream up 3 of them to satisfy anticipated demand by 2010. Considering we have found only one "gusher" in the past ten years the odds are with the pessamist .( we found 14 in the 8o's At one time only one sixth of the world had LONG been dependant on oil . But now ? Even 2 memebers of OPEC can even meet quotas let alone increase them . We have NO spare capacity in infrstructure - both upstream and downstream . And what of China ? lndia ? Russia and thier insatiable appetites ? .... . lts quite ironic we are all drilling in the 21st century the same delta and offshore wells we abanondoned in the 1950,s . . Of course we could never have gone as deep as today . .....But its rather ironic , dont you think, to put your energy chrisis into exploiting yet another place we know to be both volatile and so wild and remote that in parts of Nigeria rebels have simply fractured pipeline and set up mini piecemeal refineries to flog the crude on the black market ....Quite insane that the army turn a blind eye .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, So the USA has decided it wont be repeated on the Chevron /Esso acreage with every other player in "Big Oil " involved in the gulf of guinea projects . . The Navy via "Voice of America" recently announced that yet another battle group of aircraft carriers protected by over 20 frigates and destroyers and subs ( at latest count ) are involved in battle manouvres with Sao Tome / Principe to protect any oil found ,lts simple :- Nigeria want Cameroon oil with ilyas d sao tome and Principe as logistic bases as well as an abundance of oil . And Sao tome quite simply want both protection from Nigeria; and a number of hostile regimes who talk from one songsheet but dance to quite a different tune in public . ,So USA gravitates towards USA rewarding them with the best blocks going to Exxon / Mobil &Chevron .( so long as they matched the best bidder ? ) Even on zones were only a few bids were expected had several bids of up to three and four times what Goldman Sachs even expected ,,,with some zones having up to 2o or more bids .... . This follows last years successful manouvres; and under what is called the " Carter doctrine " The USA has the powers to protect gas/oil with whatever force deemed neccassary to protect this essential commodity . You may rememeber that both these tiny African nations expirienced peaceful coup recently backed by the USA But USA decided to share it with Nigeria simply because they act as "peacekeepers" in many UN African affairs . Troops that Bush must keep there so as peacekeepers for without them a large swathe of Central west Africa would sink into utter anarchy.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, lt may sound a most dangerous place to indulge in oil exploration but when your wells are between 50 an 200 km deep into the Atlantic ;and the USA have weaponry that is accurate to a single metre ,,,.Thats there to stay until every droplet has been removed .,,,,,,,,,,But at least the shinnagins @ PET , RPT , NLM , companies are reporting as news becomes available ..... Remember PET ? and that long painful long wait which resulted in nothing ..Little did investors know that BP had beein invited in to overseee repair infrastructure and the lured in by offering of highly prospective licenses left . Attractive news huh ?? You gotta be joking !! Juste as PET board was telling holders to be" patient " BP had already WALKED AWAY !!! but the news didnt enter the public domain . That news was known two full months before PET conceeded it had been unsuccessful; but the initial leap from 140.p/s from 46p spelt sell . ALWAYS play the percentages until you feel you are anticipating the obvious . PET was a disgrace .l did admit this to one man via e-mail on these boards . Mamely - to sell at that 140 level . And he had had beat me to it lol ,,loll ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, . .......Both my oilies in Africa --AFR and EEL ( both with a very similar portfolio have issued excellent reports reg their drilling rights and expos / AFR is headed by Ex head of Global Expo, and ex head of BP in the exploration of Western Africa,- After 20 years in a very patriarchal industry where most information is by word of mouth , and on a who needs to know basis, Nick Johnstone and his connections are what initially drew me to the stock . lndeed he must be quite astonishing to negotiate a company making project of this size into the portfolio of AFR -- 4.5% sounds a little to good . ,but to get a mere sniff at a 4.5 % of a project of this size is an accomplishment in itself . We are talking in tens of billions of dollars That equates to an amazing 120 mbpoe for AFR ..ln the meantime so as to attain early income generation AFR have entered a j/v in the devopment of the Ogdeh field Also eqiupped with the specialist , horses mouth , knowledge Nick will bring to Afren after years in Nigeria knows he will be aware of which wells are tired as far as the majors are concerned yet cost effective to AFR ..Morever AFR signed an agreement to drill their own well Themis / Marin , and bought 10% of the lbekelia project from Ascent res which is adjacent to Olowi marin field with C1 reserves of 180 bbloe Africa . .....................................................................................................................................................................................Talking to a guy i know @ Chevron ( Nigeria ) with 27 years at "on hands" rig level from 15 years with BP and all its riches- via a 4 years sabbatical with Woods Mckenzie- and now walking for Total off the coast of the Gabon .....who thinks Chevron (the operator ) has found a potential "gusher " yet enjoy the anonomity until the politics of the situation are diluted .. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,This RNS talk of one to one and a half bbloe is utter bollocks ; and a clever way to keep the helm steady ====!.. . . He is ENGLISH yet he still calls the North sea and the manner it was mined the "beggars banquet" .lt was mined with what is called bottle brush drilling with the use of hi concentration of water injection which was scandalous . lt was an absolute scandal; and lost up to 20% of gas lost forever. l remember before he became the lEA chief economist, Faith Barr ,,,,aww im knackered . l have NEVER actually opened a debate reg. any share but of all the shares i see AFR is the only one i have even contemplated ............The downside is minimal ; and the upside is tremendous . ..Well worth a good look over ...... lts juste gone 8 in the morning here ....and off out to lie on the beach ..34 degrees already .- reaches 41 even at this time of day in Late march /early April . .............a'bientot , faires attention et b. chance .....bien amicalment .......@+ J