I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

NETIMPERATIVE COMMENT: Sky should fear the cable guys

14/February/2003

Latest figures from Oftel, BT, and a statement by Telewest CEO Charles Burdick all point to one thing - cable is on the move. After a couple of years of financial hell, both NTL and Telewest are at last preparing for their long-expected merger and it seems there can be only one loser, young Sky.


As BT unveiled yesterday, it claims more than 50% of the ADSL broadband market with an estimated 350,000 users signed up under either BT Retail or the fast disappearing BTopenworld in a total market of 680,000 ADSL users. A strategy of determined stubbornness towards local loop unbundling, among other things, has left it in prime position and with few competitors.

However, the real success story is cable broadband. Oftel says there are 769,000 end users of cable broadband services and that's before Telewest reports its new figures very soon. Combined, NTL and Telewest are available to 13.3m homes, the vast bulk of which can access broadband services if they so choose. And the likelihood is, that so choose they will.

It has long been thought that if only the two cable sisters could address their ugly, nay monstrous debts, they ought to be able to press home a distinct advantage - the potential for users to put their TV, phone and internet access costs onto one bill and with one supplier. BT and Sky, spotting the threat, have spent the past two years seeking ways of joining forces to offer an all-in-one style package of their own, but a true fit has been impossible.

Thus, especially as broadband interest snowballs, consumers are finding that cable is by far the simplest option - costs are somewhat more manageable too. For BT, safe as houses in its monopoly world of phone line exchanges, this is an irritance but barely a real bother. It has always known that its only option was to do what it could to hang on to the local exchanges for as long as possible and exercise its marketing power to make its ADSL package the most obvious.

For Sky, on the other hand, the likely dominance of cable puts an almighty spanner in the works. While Sky Digital - on which it has done a fantastic job - has been the most viable option for iTV users, it could claim dominance of both content and delivery. As cable becomes more populated, it will gradually be left with only its (costly) content and, as the balance of power shifts, you can bet the cable companies will want to press their advantage when it comes to content negotiations.

Even worse for the satellite kings is that, once Telewest is able to clear its debt with the banks - as it surely will - it is clear to at last join forces properly with its estranged cable partner and, together, they pose a significant power. The geographical overlap of the Telewest and NTL networks is negligible enough to keep integration costs - and interference from the Competition Commission - to a minimum and their combined promotional budgets will be the subject of much adland attention.

Charles Burdick says Telewest could be cash-flow positive by the end of this year. With its whopping interest payments removed under its financial restructuring, it should be a good deal more than that. And once it is, a ball Sky would rather remained flat will indeed start rolling.

ainsoph

Thanks for posting the above. That is the most bullish commentary on TWT's operational prospects I have seen. Perhaps there are real chances of the 3 to 4p we expect to see (on confirmation of restructuring) growing significantly in the next year or two.

I think there is every chance jaffa ...... My guess currently is maybe 5p - on the assumption of a deal that is acceptable. That would equate to an old share price of say 150p. Talk of a merger and/or good figues from the company at that time will easily support this kind of price. I do not see the bondholders selling out in the near future after the d4e



ains

Telewest looking into 606 Interactive problem
18:01 GMT, Monday 17th February 2003 -- by James Welsh
Telewest is looking into fixing problems experienced on its digital cable service with the BBC's 606 Interactive service "as a matter of urgency", the cable operator told Digital Spy today.

Word has seeped out that angry NTL customers, whom are opposed to the operators recent bandwidth cap on broadband services, are to gather outside this weeks Internet Industry Awards in London:

Those behind the direct action are hoping that a demo outside the event will help raise public awareness while causing maximum embarrassment to the cableco.

Users had hoped that a wave of protests planned for Valentine's Day would help make NTL reconsider its decision to cap broadband use to 1Gb a day. At this stage, it's still not known whether the protests - including the threat of mass disconnections from the service - materialised to any great degree.

The Register notes that an online petition against the cap has now garnered some 2,700 digital signatures.

morning ains - TWT quiet again today.

very much so jeetha ....

recently average daily volumes have been close to 12 million but yesterday we had 2.5 million and just 578K this morning ..... I have them on alert and will be interested if there is a dip


ains

Tuesday 18th February 2003


Broadband UK Internet connections reach one in ten
[Computer Buyer] 12:32

The Office of National Statistics has covered the month of December 2002 in its latest monthly report on UK Internet connectivity.
The headline figure is that the total number of subscriptions for access to the Internet actually fell - month on month - by 1.1 per cent. This is attributed to seasonal factors involving the Christmas holiday. On a yearly basis, however, Internet connectivity grew 7.4 per cent compared with December 2001.

Of more interest is the statistic that 10.1 per cent of subscriptions to the Internet now involve fast dedicated access (broadband or fixed lines). The Office of National Statistics reports that the yearly growth for permanent connections was 262.7 per cent, with an increase of 7.3 per cent from November to December 2002.

By contrast, the relative decline of dial-up connections - which include ISDN - has continued. The figure for December 2002 stands at 89.9 per cent, down from the 97 per cent of all subscriptions in December 2001.

Make no mistake, however - this is not to say that one in ten people now enjoy broadband. The official figures relate to the nature of Internet subscriptions. Nevertheless, the stats provide a useful and consistent indication of the take up of broadband.

Alun Williams

Volumes were 3.6 mill yesterday - which is about a third of the current daily average - 430K in two hours today but shares still holding up with sets a little uninspiring .... still have cash to spend

ains



BSkyB is leading the way in the media industry, being one of the few media companies tipped to be upgraded, after Moodys raised its outlook of its long-term debt rating from stable to positive, says The Financial Times.

relatively quiet again this morning with just a million traded - aa always sets determines the pace


ains


NTL Insults Customers Over DL Cap

By:mark.j @ 9:49:AM - News Comments - SendNews [HERE] / PrintNews [HERE]NTLs reason for not informing its broadband cable modem service customers of the new download limit was because it didn't think they were intelligent enough to understand it!:

So says Kingsley Smith, the campaigner behind the Don't Pay NTL, who met Bill Goodland, NTL's Internet director, and Steve Upton (Technical/Network Manager) in Hook yesterday to discuss the cableco's decision to cap its broadband service.

According to Mr Smith, the decision to cap the service was taken by Mr Goodland. And it was he who decided not to tell customers because he "didn't think they were 'Tech' enough to understand".

So exactly how technologically minded do you have to be to understand a 1GB daily download limit? More @ The Register.

a million sell at 235 away from sets

Telewest in ad deal with Real Media

London, February 20 2003, (netimperative)



by Richard Agnew

Telewest has extended its deal to use interactive marketing firm Real Media's software for serving adverts delivered to its digital TV subscribers.


The cable operator has been using Real's Open AdStream platform, which allows broadband providers and web publishers to manage advertising revenues, since 2000.

Director of e-commerce and interactive services at Telewest Chris Townsend said: "Open AdStream's delivery and scalability are critical attributes as we continue our digital television platform development."

UK cable counterpart NTL also uses the platform.

Barely a crowd, yet apparently half a dozen NTL customers gathered outside of yesterdays ISPA awards event in London.

Not surprisingly they weren't there to support their provider, instead a demonstration was held against the operator because of its recent broadband usage cap:

The plucky group of protesters was barred from entering the hotel but instead targeted those people turning up to the glitzy event by handing out leaflets condemning the cableco's move.

One of the protesters braving the cold night told The Register: "We will not give up our fight."

It's hoped that the protest group will soon be able to present a petition of nearly 3,900 signatures to both NTL and the Government's e-minister. We salute all those involved. More @ The Register.

ains,

Trialing L2 at the mo, is there a good site where I can look up queries... I'm trying to check that my understanding so is correct.

Cheers.

not come across one but help is usually good in terms of technical queries - lots go on one day courses to get a feel

Fri 21 February 2003 12:28PM GMT

Telewest scoops Slough Council voice comms deal
Where next? Reading, Aldershot, Bracknell... Didcot, Yateley...



Slough Borough Council has stripped out its heterogeneous voice communications infrastructure and replaced it with a single system from Telewest Business in a bid to cut costs and ease the management overhead.


The council is replacing its old telephone system with Telewest's Centrex Virtual Private Network (VPN) service, which will provide it with advanced telephony services, hosted and managed by Telewest's digital exchange.


Sue Harling, head of IS and IT director for Slough Borough Council, said that some of the savings will come from lower circuit rental and call costs - the organisation will not be billed for internal calls, even if they are made between different council buildings in the borough.


The council has nearly 1,600 extensions, and new ones can be put in place during the contract period without any additional capital cost.


Harling added: "The new service provides comprehensive management and accounting information analysis and data including the reporting on performance indicators."


Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Graham Hayday

Radio rises above ad slump

Julia Day
Friday February 21, 2003

Radio has again bucked the trend, recording a 2.5% growth in advertising in the past year and a 14.8% growth in sponsorship and promotions.
Advertisers ploughed 563m into promoting their products on the radio last year, increasing the amount of money they spend on radio ads by 2.5% at a time when investment in TV ads is expected to remain flat.

But the area of radio sponsorship and promotions had a particularly successful 2002, with revenues in the sector growing by a massive 14.8%.

Radio advertising saw consecutive year-on-year increases for every quarter of last year, with revenue in the fourth quarter up by 4.2% year on year to 147.6m.

The government was by far the country's biggest spender on radio ads, committing 19.9m to the medium.

Meanwhile BT, Sainsbury's and News International all spent between 8m and 9m on radio ads, according to the latest figures published by the Radio Advertising Bureau.

Sainsbury's and News International upped the the amount of money they spent on radio.

The supermarket increased its spend from 2.6m in 2001 to 8.6m in 2002, saying radio was a cost effective means of advertising, and the publisher of the Sun and the Times more than doubled its spend from 4.1m to 8.4m.

Telewest, Toyota and Ford also significantly increased the amount of money they spent on radio ads.

"Given the continued economic uncertainties, we are very pleased to report 2.5% growth in radio revenues during 2002," said Michael O'Brien, the director of marketing operations at the RAB.

"With TV revenues expected to be flat during the same period we are confident that commercial radio will yet again have increased its share of total advertising spend," he added.

The advertising association is expected to report its fourth quarter and full 2002 year revenue figures for the whole of the industry, including TV and radio advertising, next month.

Ains - any idea when TWT, reporting its finals?
thanks

last year it was the 1st march ..... but not announced yet



ains

I thought it was supply and demand, that's makes this prices
demand has always succeeded supply
then why aren’t..... the mm, running out of stock yet!