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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 12 Jun 2007 08:18 - 703 of 1564

maestro .... not surprising you have been so quiet of late then

Guscavalier - 12 Jun 2007 10:26 - 704 of 1564

I dont think many institutions will take much notice of Efficient Capital Structures. Correct me if wrong but this is one that John Mayo (of Marconi fame) is involved in. Personally,I would keep well clear of any advice from his quarter.

Falcothou - 12 Jun 2007 17:02 - 705 of 1564

May be they are worried he will do to Vodafone what he did to Marconi!

HARRYCAT - 26 Jul 2007 22:19 - 706 of 1564

Yet another 300 point correction on the DOW tonight, following an equally severe correction of the FTSE today.
Is this inevitable as the indexes push new highs, or the start of the prophecies of doom? One thing that always amazes me is that the topic of 'Sub prime lending' seems to rear it's head every time the market falls. Markets rise & no one gives a damn. Markets fall & it's sub prime lending to blame. Surely, if these loans are as risky as stated, the lenders should build in a bad debt provision, or am I over simplyfing?
Any thoughts on a bounce? Be good to see the losses today made good tomorrow!

cynic - 27 Jul 2007 08:13 - 707 of 1564

markets may bounce as rises and falls of this magnitude are almost always an over-reaction .... however, there will assuredly be many forced and computer programmed sales, so to expect the markets to recover even their equilibrium today, is really hoping for too much

Big Al - 27 Jul 2007 08:29 - 708 of 1564

Credit crunch coming affecting margined hedge funds and private equity IMO.

Pain must continue further and deeper. ;-)))

neil777 - 27 Jul 2007 10:10 - 709 of 1564

FTSE fighting back, Traders remorse? hope it holds though!

HARRYCAT - 27 Jul 2007 17:20 - 710 of 1564

Another lurch in to the abyss!
I think you are right, Al. The credit squeeze is starting to have an effect.

HARRYCAT - 30 Jul 2007 14:48 - 711 of 1564

AFX today:

"Still, market volatility is high and credit concerns are running deep, so it's unclear if any of the day's news will allay investors' fears of a major correction. Another factor that could weigh on the stock market Monday is China's decision to tighten its credit again to rein in the country's excess cash by ordering banks to hike their reserves."

IMO, it's just a matter of when, not if to a big market correction.
Many people on these boards seem to be converting their stocks to cash & I confess I have started to do that too.

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 14:51 - 712 of 1564

my chart guru reckons that if Dow breaks down through 13255, which is pretty much where it now sits, then 12000 becomes the downside target, though of course there would be upward spikes en route

Stan - 30 Jul 2007 15:40 - 713 of 1564

Tend to agree with Harry... instead of "go away in May" it's been "go away in July" think this sub-prime business may run deeper or rather wider.

It all just confirms my sentiment of the last six months.

Strawbs - 30 Jul 2007 16:02 - 714 of 1564

I think all these sharp corrections are the ripples of a much larger event waiting somewhere over the horizon. I'm not sure what it is, or even when it'll arrive, but I'm pretty sure it's coming. Everything up until now has been pretty much "predictable", meaning those that can, have been ready to short when oppertunity comes. The "crash" event will be unforseen though, probably something linked to credit (debt) in some way, but not necessarily obvious. With each of these ripples, investor sentiment is slowly erroded away, and with it market support. When the support has gone, even the smallest events can cause a crash. In my opinion......

Strawbs.

andysmith - 30 Jul 2007 21:20 - 715 of 1564

My current policy has been to get out of speculative plays and invest only in profitable companies who are growing and are undervalued on current and/or forward earnings projections. Whilst sp is not immune on bad days, especially if there are profits to lock-in for some investors, there should be upside for such companies that are not exposed to US whether the bubble bursts or not.

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 21:25 - 716 of 1564

good companies and bad have their peaks and troughs .... the difficulty is to determine when is which!

Big Al - 31 Jul 2007 08:29 - 717 of 1564

Sitting in cash on the sidelines is a position in itself. ;-))

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 08:32 - 718 of 1564

morning Al ..... played the dangerous game yesterday of buying Dow on its supposed support line .... got it right thank goodness .... and had the sense to close it with a respectable profit rather than run the risk of losing it all back ..... as it happens, Dow continued on up, but who cares?

Big Al - 31 Jul 2007 08:49 - 719 of 1564

Not dangerous buying on support, cynic. ;-))

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 08:56 - 720 of 1564

so it proved, but only because the support proved to be such!

Big Al - 31 Jul 2007 08:57 - 721 of 1564

That's why you buy it, non? LOL

Similarly that's why we sell/short resistance.

Strawbs - 31 Jul 2007 12:11 - 722 of 1564

If this sell-off repeats the last two (May 06, Feb 07) then I'd expect the bounce to last a few more days and then another sell-off after the weekend. Interesting that these bouts of fear are getting more frequent. 9 months, 6 months........Could the next big one be in October? I'm sure I read somewhere that most market crashes happen in the Autumn...... Glad to have a purely cash position. :-)

In my opinion etc.....

Strawbs.
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