bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
bosley
- 03 Feb 2005 17:39
- 704 of 27111
here is tims article. looks even less pie in the sky now.
I have never been waterskiing but I reckon buying `shares in Stanelco will provide a similar experience. There may be a few bumps along the way but the experience should be exhilarating.
This company has been around for years. It uses radio waves (RF) to make optical fibres but it has lately focused on RF for molecular bonding of plastics without using heat. Controversially this has led it into a legal battle with BioProgress (BPRG), which accuses the company of abusing confidentiality to launch a rival system for making soluble capsules.The rights and wrongs of this matter went before the courts last month and a
decision is imminent. This used to look important but now it seems irrelevant. The reason for this change is a patent announcement made by Stanelco on 16 July. It filed an application for a new system for sealing the plastic packaging on cooked and raw meat without having to use special laminates or coatings. The statement estimated it would cost 40,000 to retrofit packaging machines and then the company would charge a royalty of 35,000 per year.
Savings on plastic are reckoned to be worth 100,000 per year.
There would also be a saving in the UK of 10,000 tonnes of plastic which currently goes into landfill.
There are at least 20,000 machines across Europe and several thousand more in the US.
This suggests that royalties would be a mindboggling 875 million per year if all of them were retrofitted. That equates to 110p for every Stanelco share per
year. For comparison, think of the fortune made by Tetrapak. Just a meaty pipedream?
Hardly. On Tuesday the company announced a deal with Robert Reiser, a US equipment maker. Reiser aims to convert at least 120 machines in the first 12
months of the agreement. This alone will be worth over 400,000 in royalties.
The key point is that Reiser was not even involved in the prepatent trials. It has concluded the deal in the month since the patent announcement. Given the
glacial speed of most US corporation lawyers, this is a fantastic endorsement.
Before the announcement, sponsored research house Hardman forecasts sales of 4
million for the year to October and 12 million to October 2005. Impressive as these are, they have probably been far overtaken by events.
The shares have taken a tumble recently, dropping from a 2004 peak of 6.25p. Theimpending BioProgress verdict may be factor, along with the malaise affecting anything tech-related. Even if Stanelco loses, any weakness should present a further buying opportunity.
.
BUSINESS: Use of radio
frequency in manufacturing
processes
VITAL STATS:
Market value: 39.5 million
Historic PE for Oct 03: -100
Prospective PE for Oct 04: 55
Prospective PE for Oct 05: 9
Dividend yield: 0.8%
Spread: 10%
NMS: 25,000
1Sealing patent heralds fantastic boom time for Stanelco
2Contract with Robert Reiser should be just first of many
3Verdict on BioProgress case imminent but no longer important
STANELCO
HIGH 6.30 17/11/03
LOW 3.39 15/8/03
LAST 4.50
Source: Thomson Financial/Datastream
Shares Summary
by: Tim Freeborn
STANELCO (SEO) 4.5p BUY
cut and run now and you could well be missing out on 1 a share a year. (ihoo)
bosley
- 03 Feb 2005 17:42
- 705 of 27111
adieh, i recently told someone i dabble a little in shares and he asked how i dealt with cgt.i nearly pissed myself. i would love to have to deal with cgt. maybe soon , i will have to? 10.25p!!!! bugger me!!!!
AdieH
- 03 Feb 2005 17:49
- 706 of 27111
You and me both, its nice to dream though, but if this hits 50p i'll be there... Also into BPRG, COH, BPRG and STERLING, they all seem to be moving up... Pity I got out of Matrix though... Have you seen the rise in Neteller - WOW...
bosley
- 03 Feb 2005 17:54
- 707 of 27111
cant win 'em all adieh. noticed bprg are starting have their 6 monthly price rise. any reason why?
AdieH
- 03 Feb 2005 17:56
- 708 of 27111
No news, rumours of a deal to be announced shortly, its a day traders dream is BPRG i'm in long term, wish i had funds to play the day trade but also have job to do, don't think boss would be too pleased... One to keep an eye on they have fallen from 1.60 could quite easily go back there too. As ever DYOR.
hlyeo98
- 03 Feb 2005 18:22
- 709 of 27111
Bosley...it reaches 10p sooner than expected, isn't that great?
panic
- 03 Feb 2005 19:00
- 710 of 27111
what a great week,great posts,I have been in SEO since 2003, topping up along the way, and i've always kept the faith,although the Boss(the wife)thought i was barmy. This is my Jumbo jet,seat belt fastened,incase of turbulence from jittery profit takers,I'm in for the long haul.
bosley
- 03 Feb 2005 19:52
- 711 of 27111
better than great hlyeo,its bloody marvellous.( lets not be surprised if its a red day tomorrow though). feeling so good ive been playing with some charts , and whichever way i do seos , it always looks wonderful . heres some candles for you
nice
stockdog
- 03 Feb 2005 19:55
- 712 of 27111
Bosley - which being intgerpreted means?
EWRobson
- 03 Feb 2005 20:00
- 713 of 27111
"On a conservative basis ... Evolution forecasts a PE of 13 in 2007 falling to 7 in 2008". I expect these to be revised, particularly if Tim Freeborn is involved. Those figures are on 8.25p. There is a good argument for 50p this year. Double the Evolution forecasts gives a projected PE of 4 at 10p. Take a more reasonable projected PE of 20 gives an sp of 50p. Simple. We only need a decent set of forecasts on 26th Feb and:- "we ain';t seen nothing yet".
Bos, AdieH - I've already passed the CGT figures on SEO - or would have done if they weren't mostly CFDs. Your stakes are far too low. What are you faffing around with all this other rubbish for? lol :-))
Eric
bosley
- 03 Feb 2005 20:15
- 714 of 27111
stockdog, not a clue but theres lot of blue, woo hoo hoo!!!!!!!!!!
eric , how long did it take to open your cfd account and who with , please?
AdieH
- 03 Feb 2005 20:20
- 715 of 27111
All eggs in one basket springs to mind EWR - Good luck to you in yr strategy, I don't have pots of money to invest just happy with my investments. Had a very good day today, 50p target for SEO for me if we reach that I will be one happy man, my wife might have to take notice of me too regarding investing... Happy Days (for today anyway)...
EWRobson
- 03 Feb 2005 20:59
- 716 of 27111
bos, AdieH
All my eggs are not in one basket by any means. Clearly, contributors to these threads have different amounts to invest. My position is that I am retired and needing to withdraw around 15K from the market on an investment of about 100K (partly because my pension is with equitable - nuff said!) - Many will have much more and some less, but it is probably helpful to use real figures. Year 1 was good: +80% based on a Shares recommended portfolio, including such as Bloomsbury, Ottakar's, Hamleys and Alizyme. Despite a terrific profit with ASC, last year was only break-even, because of one or two bad stock picks, e.g. EPO and PET. Then changed the strategy to try to get to a position where I could take out 75K for an extension. ASOS might have done it if I hadn't taken profits too early and re-invested the proceeds badly. After a debate with johngtudor, a real professional who's career has been in the industry, realised I needed to get on top of technical analysis and, in particular, time the trades better; also started to understand the potential of CFDs. The other bit of advice, tested by the ASC experience, was to focus on the winners and run the profits.
So I started looking for the ASOS of 2005. Essentially I am down to a combination of 4 main shares: SEO, NLR, CFP and ASC with smaller stakes in 4 others. Bos did me a great turn by pushing SEO. The fundamentals were unparalleled but the charts were mixed until we got a slightly spurious golden cross. From there the story has worked amazingly well. I took profits on ASC, which was trading sideways and bought CFDs in SEO. On the back of SEO rising I re-invested the positive position in SEO. Having got the stake to 'critical mass' where it can really make a difference, I re-invested the next rise in NLR and now in ASC, thus coming full circle. I can see the extension coming: I intend to run the SEO profits; NLR is on an amazing climb but will not invest further because of concern with the risk; I am rebuilding ASC to its former levels (read John Marshall in Shares this week to see why).
Now, there are two potential problems in applying this strategy: (i) you need to be able to accept the risk - I don't have a problem with putting most of the eggs in one or maybe 3 or 4 baskets, although it depends on the eggs and it depends on the baskets; (ii) the starting point may be lower in financial terms. What would I do with 25K to invest? I would switch it all into CFDs. Lets say the multiple is 4:1, then the effective investment is 100K. High risk and potentially scary? But what if you are really confident in SEO, even at present price. Then put 10K into SEO CFD's. Instead of buying 100,000 shares at 10p, say, I get 400,000. The price moves to 20p. The contract is worth 80K, less the 10K stake, or 70K profit. I say that because that is really what I would do! No CGT as well.
blue index are the only CFD dealer who I know does all the small caps and many AIM shares , not all of them, but certainly including ASC, SEO and NLR. 50 min a trade and trades are generally done at the spread. ASC, NLR spreads are low and they seem to be able to get inside the spread on SEO. Takes a week or so to set up. Jeff Anderson is the guy allocated to me and very helpful (although he keeps wanting me to take profits on SEO!) Website is www.blueindex.co.uk
If you want to explore any issues further feel free to contact me via e-mail. I have bared my soul a bit here but I think that might be helful to other readers. Best of luck!
Eric
andysmith
- 03 Feb 2005 21:00
- 717 of 27111
I just love it, finally we have the believers and suddenly I'm not mad for suggesting 50p which is a good mid-term target. Don't forget this is based upon small %age target hit and doesn't take into account Bio-degradable or Frogpack and whatever else they may have up their sleeves. Amazing how many of my friends & colleagues have hastily opened accounts and bought these wishing they had listened when I told them at 4-6p. But hey, well done everyone for getting on board, for fast rides it beats Alton Towers anyday and you don't have to throw up your lunch either. Here we go Stanelco!!!
EWRobson
- 03 Feb 2005 22:13
- 719 of 27111
Driver
Don't get the 'bearing' comment; is it a misprint?
Eric
Lincolnshirelad
- 03 Feb 2005 23:24
- 720 of 27111
EWR,
Enjoyed your last post where you bared your soul a bit. I'm new to the post boards but have dabbled in shares for some years.I have held SEO shares (in my ISA as they're not an AIM share) since Tim's article in shares on 19/8/04. I don't feel knowledgable enough to add to what's being said so I'm doing lots of reading. Good luck to you and to all SEO holders.
LL.
Fred1new
- 04 Feb 2005 00:38
- 721 of 27111
AdieH
- 04 Feb 2005 08:07
- 722 of 27111
Excellent posts, thanks for your honesty Eric... will comment further when I have time... Lets hope for another positive day today.
SEADOG
- 04 Feb 2005 08:16
- 723 of 27111
enjoyed your post Eric as always. I shall have to do some reading on CFD's as they are unknown to me SD