overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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zscrooge
- 03 Mar 2006 13:21
- 704 of 1009
I wonder if the other side worry about the opinions on this board? Their ramper in chief can be somewhat excessive but is treated with mild amusement by those who understand and, to be fair to him, he has held firm when all around short termers were predicting the collapse of the company and general gloom and doom re the cybersource cc.
It's fallen a few pence on results day -wow. Still holding from just over 5p and it will reach 2 in the medium term. Maybe not an oily but 8x in3 years or so is sensible.
pachandl
- 03 Mar 2006 13:23
- 705 of 1009
I have to agree with most of the posters this morning. A little bit surprised by the comment in the above "Sharecast comment": Retail Decisions is still seeing strong growth from card not present business as the appetite for buying over the phone and internet continues to boom. I cannot see that RTD have generated that much of an increase in profit for that type of activity. As I said before (and others have said since) RTD is becoming a bit of a safe "utility".
As for future direction, there have been some posts today that have been critical of RTD's recent change of direction. Perhaps we should recognise that we might have all been wrong to assume that CNP was a high growth sector or, more accurately, that CNP was a high profit-generating sector.
Fundamentalist
- 03 Mar 2006 13:44
- 706 of 1009
Fair point pach,
i guess i mildly criticised the mgmt because they are taking the company in a direction that didnt suit me, that doesnt mean its wrong, but equally it also means they will have quite a large change in shareholder base as the new strategy may not well fit with that of those previously invested
as for CNP not being profitable, have to admit im not convinced
Zscrooge
8 times in any investment is a good thing. Like you i was in this at single digits and to be honest am glad i sold last year. Its part in my portfolio was as a higher risk, high growth play which it isnt anymore - part of the problem with what is effectively a hybrid company like this is that it is actually difficult calculate fair value as it has no direct comparators and the results dont give quite enough info to value it as two separate entities.
Dont doubt it'll get to 2, more a case of how long it will take for me and that timescale could well be a year + imo
Douggie
- 03 Mar 2006 17:47
- 707 of 1009
What do we do now ........... be patient ...look fwd. to Sept. .............. !! ;o\
biffa18
- 04 Mar 2006 10:04
- 708 of 1009
DOUGIE unless you r thousands out of pocket you would be better selling up a few and buying a couple of million pcm (cost of peanuts ) or any other share ,i know it is a vry spec share but the interest in it is massive and any news it shoots up i bought 5mill the other week and sold made 100% profit i still hold 12mil ........... shares like rtd are ok but vry overhyped, safe over a period of time possibly but it looks like they changing course a bit which will unsettle a few i think .unless there is any take over talk of course not likely at the moment tho ..this is not a ramp for pcm as stated i hold alot of them im trying to get the idea that holding on can be a vry dang thing as i think this share will go down more before maybe recovering on better news imo
Fred1new
- 04 Mar 2006 13:14
- 709 of 1009
On having another look at the accounts, although I was disappointed I don't think they are that bad, in fact they appear pretty good and I think should support a SP of 180p. The overall trend is still good and the prices within the last 5mths trading channel. Some of the indicators are a slightly less positive. For now I am holding and would expect the 180 over next few months. IMHO.
Fred1new
- 04 Mar 2006 13:38
- 710 of 1009
PS PCM Before you consider buying have a look at Charts, I think they are horrific, Somebody may say they have bottom and breaking out looking at the recent SP its is breaking back. I will believe the break up if I see it. The Fundamentals are also appalling (IMHO). Turnover, EPS and profits down, down, down. The market size is about 500 and I would expect the spread is colossal and frequently changed. (about 20%)
The hope was the company was the new Chinese CEO (2004). I would think it is being bought with optimism or similar emotion.
biffa18
- 04 Mar 2006 14:44
- 711 of 1009
FRED..........yep totaly agree re pcm boom or bust ,my point was really holding on to shares when u are way out of pocket is a dodgy game and the trend /sentiment is very up and down as is rtd iv traded this share for sometime now but only for quick returns i dont consider this a safe share by any means (not holding ) ! i think this will go down some more yet (1.30 ish short term)as i think the good results (or supposed to be ) was already in the price and some will take their losses/profits and go into more interesting things !........imho
boxerdog
- 05 Mar 2006 18:11
- 712 of 1009
Interesting artical in todays M.O.SUNDAY.Midas states he "STILL" likes the look of RTD.And suggests we hold on. He afterall made a fair job of predicting contents of results in advance.
BD.
Fred1new
- 05 Mar 2006 18:49
- 713 of 1009
Boxer Any chance of cutting and pasting article?
boxerdog
- 05 Mar 2006 18:57
- 714 of 1009
Sorry Fred, you are talking to a complete technophobe !! I thought cutting and pasting was something they did at nursery school.
zscrooge
- 05 Mar 2006 19:19
- 715 of 1009
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/columnists/article.html?in_article_id=407408&in_page_id=19&in_author_id=1822
Retail Decisions, the card payment technology company, ended the week down 1p at 146p, despite reporting a strong rise in profits for 2005. Results released last week showed pre-tax profits of 8m, up from 6.1m, and earnings per share of 9.09p, up from 7.06p. We tipped the company at 147p last month and we still like the look of it. Again, we suggest that you hold on.
Fred1new
- 06 Mar 2006 09:01
- 716 of 1009
Boxer, it was. We must have been in the same class!
Douggie
- 06 Mar 2006 10:39
- 717 of 1009
............... ;o\ ....... the dream of return towards 200p over.........
back to wait and see ......................... patience !...???????????
Fred1new
- 06 Mar 2006 15:44
- 718 of 1009
Have you noticed that the B/S ratio is 12/80 and supposing that is not to far out then it is a little surprising that the B-O price is going up over the day.
Suggesting there is a large buyer in the shadows.
Not certain.
I think I am holding for a moment.
(-8 or 8-)
O
====
pachandl
- 07 Mar 2006 10:17
- 719 of 1009
Hmmmm. 220k bought at 150 - so there WAS a buyer after all.
Douggie
- 07 Mar 2006 10:20
- 720 of 1009
.. ;0)
Fred1new
- 07 Mar 2006 15:15
- 721 of 1009
I would hope for a greater margin improvement but;
"""
Retail Decisions PLC
07 March 2006
Retail Decisions plc (the 'Company')
Notification of Directors' and PDMR's interest
At a meeting of the Remuneration Committee on 6 March 2006 the Non-Executive
Directors of the Board approved the following awards to Directors and PDMR's
under the Retail Decisions PLC Long Term Incentive Plan ('LTIP'):
Employee No. of shares subject to LTIP award
Carl Clump, Chief Executive 376,712
Richard Amos, Finance Director 114,384
Rob Hillan, Senior Manager 228,767
Mark Goldspink, Senior Manager 68,493
The performance measure applicable to these awards is total shareholder return
('TSR').
On the third anniversary of the date of grant of the award the Remuneration
Committee will calculate the TSR of the Group against that of the Comparator
Group Companies to determine the proportion of the award that will be released,
subject to the average operating margin of the Group exceeding 5% per annum over
the Performance Period.
The date of grant of the awards is 6 March 2006 and the closing price of the
Company's ordinary shares on the day prior to the date of grant was 146 pence.
7 March 2006
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange""""
pachandl
- 08 Mar 2006 15:59
- 722 of 1009
GS has increased its holding by 22565 shares.
Douggie
- 10 Mar 2006 09:33
- 723 of 1009
Mournin All ....
history repeating itself here yet again ............!! :-[