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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Beeblebrox - 17 Mar 2004 08:31 - 705 of 11056

morning doll,

pray tell me why ?

woz it coz you got out of bed the wrong side ?

hilary - 17 Mar 2004 08:43 - 706 of 11056

Beebs,

The stronger trend is the intact downtrend which has been in place now for over 20 days. The up legs within that downtrend have so far been good for around 300 pips, but this last 3/4 day up leg hasn't produced anything like that. The rising support line of the up leg was easily taken this morning and it's already moved to form a lower low than the Tuesday low.

Currently finding support around the 18080 level. Forex News suggest next support to be around 18020 and 17975 below that. Friday support is around the 17900 level so that should also be key.

Actually, I couldn't care less whether it goes up or down so long as it goes somewhere. The lack of volatility over the last few days hasn't been good for my system which works best on firm trends lasting several days.

Beeblebrox - 17 Mar 2004 08:51 - 707 of 11056

you'll be dissapointed to know that
i agree with you..........

wots this, harmony on the forex thread !

might just wait a bit for a better entry though

hilary - 17 Mar 2004 08:55 - 708 of 11056

Damn!!!!!! I'll reverse then.

:o)

MightyMicro - 17 Mar 2004 09:03 - 709 of 11056

Morning, FXers. Just watching . . .

Beeblebrox - 17 Mar 2004 09:03 - 710 of 11056

silly girl, you're the guru,
it us lot have to follow you,



hmmmm....just blow in my ear would you,

hey, near my 'better' entry now,
whoose a clever boy then

morning mm

Beeblebrox - 17 Mar 2004 09:36 - 711 of 11056

now if the yanks had made an
announcement like that, 9-0,
cable would have moved at least 100 points,



we get the stodge (nice word that, must use it more)

hilary - 17 Mar 2004 09:56 - 712 of 11056

Unanimous vote in the March minutes dampens speculation of a rate rise in April.

zarif - 17 Mar 2004 13:15 - 713 of 11056

Afternoon everybody:
Hilary u r right it has got more downside potential than up.

Aslo just to let u know that BrianTrayda on the Pivots thread is wanting to add the Fx levels and is looking for ideas.If u dont mind pop over on his thread and help him out.

rgds
zarif

hilary - 17 Mar 2004 17:33 - 714 of 11056

cab.jpg

hilary - 18 Mar 2004 06:57 - 715 of 11056

Hohumm. Looks like I called this short a bit premature yesterday. If I'd stayed in my longs, I'd have had the 300 or so pips that I was after by now.

The resistance of the downtrend looks to be at around 18290 this morning ..... could this be a near perfect window?

MightyMicro - 18 Mar 2004 08:50 - 716 of 11056

Morning, Hil.

hilary - 18 Mar 2004 08:55 - 717 of 11056

Good morning, MM. Are you well?

MightyMicro - 18 Mar 2004 09:34 - 718 of 11056

That I am, Ma'am.

Post Gordon, neutral effect on FX?

hilary - 18 Mar 2004 09:49 - 719 of 11056

Derek,

I don't think that Gordon Brown is capable of influencing the markets. The market already knows that he's a dipstick.

As I see it, we're at a set of fundamental crossroads at the moment which may, or may not, be responsible for a neutral effect.

Everybody knows that UK interest rates are going up soon. It's just when. Will it be April or May? And by 25 base points or 50?

Everybody also knows that Dubbya won't let US rates go up while he's running for re-election.

Therefore the should continue to rise against the $. But there's a fly in the ointment.

The Eurozone isn't doing so well and there's talk of them having to cut interest rates. Add to that speculation of ECB intervention a la BoJ (our Tone wouldn't dare do that!) and you've got a scenario whereby the should fall against the $.

But the and have hitherto been working in tandem against general $ sentiment, be it positive or negative. So if one cross should be going up and the other cross should be coming down, who's going to win?

It's all in the charts. Somewhere.

:o)

MightyMicro - 18 Mar 2004 15:47 - 720 of 11056

Hil, thanks for that, even if your conclusion is clearly influenced by the Concorde Method (q.v.).

hilary - 18 Mar 2004 16:14 - 721 of 11056

They're both going up now, Derek. Looks like the won.

:o)

Beeblebrox - 18 Mar 2004 16:16 - 722 of 11056

tops nearly in for the day though
reckon 183.82

Beeblebrox - 19 Mar 2004 16:54 - 723 of 11056

watched todays lower high,
but with witching in usa thought
i'd be too busy to trade this as well.

silly boy, would've done better than
my ftse short.....

c'est la vie

hilary - 21 Mar 2004 10:35 - 724 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

22-Mar

CHF

Industrial production (Q4)

8:15

7.3%Y

-1.5%Y

Mon

USD

FOMC Parry (San Francisco) "Exploring our nation's central bank"

17:45

 

 

 

USD

FOMC Moskow speech (Chicago, IL) "Economic Trends"

18:00

 

 

 

JPY

Tertiary index (Jan)

23:50

1.6%M

0.2%M

 

DEM

CPI - preliminary states (Mar)

 

 

0.8%Y

 

CAD

BoC Dugay speech (Steinbach, MB)

 

 

 

23-Mar

FRF

Consumption (Feb)

7:50

-0.7%M

2.0%M

Tue

ITL

ISAE consumer confidence

8:30

98.4

98.8

 

EUR

Current account (Jan)

9:00

 

EUR2.5bn

 

CAD

Leading indicators (Feb)

13:30

0.5%M

0.6%M

 

USD

FOMC Stern (New Orleans) "The Changing Payments Landscape"

14:00

 

 

 

CAD

Budget speech

 

 

 

24-Mar

ITL

ISAE business confidence (Mar)

8:30

91.9

92.6

Wed

USD

Durable goods orders (Feb)

13:30

1.4%M

-2.3%M

 

USD

FOMC Guynn speech (Johnson City, TN) "Economic Outlook"

15:00

 

 

 

USD

FOMC Minehan speech (New York, NY)

15:00

 

 

 

USD

New home sales (Feb)

15:00

1100k

1106k

 

USD

FOMC Parry speech (Portland, OR)

19:30

 

 

 

NZD

Trade (Feb)

22:45

-NZD86m

-NZD550m

 

NZD

Current account (Q4)

22:45

-NZD2.5bn

-NZD2.9bn

 

EUR

ECB Noyer speech (Paris)

 

 

 

 

GBP

Chancellor Brown testifies to Treasury Select Committee

 

 

 

25-Mar

GBP

CBI industrial trends survey (Mar)

10:00

 

-15

Thu

USD

Initial claims (20 Mar wk)

13:30

340k

336k

 

USD

GDP final revision (Q4)

13:30

4.1%

4.1%

 

USD

Existing home sales (Feb)

15:00

6.16m

6.04m

 

USD

FOMC Poole speech (Memphis, TN)

16:30

 

 

 

NZD

GDP (Q4)

22:45

0.8%Q

1.5%Q

 

JPY

Workers household spending (Feb)

23:30

 

4.2%M

 

JPY

Tokyo CPI (Mar)

23:30

-0.1%Y

-0.2%Y

 

JPY

Retail sales (Feb)

23:50

 

4.5%M

 

GBP

MPC members testify to TSC

 

 

 

 

EUR

European Council (Brussels)

 

 

 

 

USD

NABE Conference (Washington)

 

 

 

 

JPY

BoJ Fukuma speech

 

 

 

26-Mar

DEM

Ifo business climate (Mar)

9:00

95.7

96.4

Fri

EUR

M3 money supply (Feb)

9:00

 

6.4%Y

 

GBP

GDP (Q4) - final revision

9:30

0.9%Q

0.8%Q

 

CHF

KOF leading indicator

10:30

0.60

0.60

 

CAD

Retail sales (Jan)

13:30

0.1%M

-1.2%M

 

USD

Personal income (Feb)

13:30

0.3%M

0.2%M

 

USD

Personal spending (Feb)

13:30

0.5%M

0.4%M

 

USD

Univ of Mich consumer confidence (Mar)

14:50

93.8

94.1

 

EUR

ECB Welteke (speech)

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