Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Fund a list
Welcome back, you can have a quick dip for one day only then onwards and upwards.

Fund a list
It doesn't look like a quick dip today we are through the 800p.

Driver

bought some more first thing - nearly got em all back - has cost me about 4% more than i sold them for :-(( still think the decision i made at the time was sensible - amazed that Dana didnt react to the mauritania news

Still going strong 900p on the horizon.

Driver

nice little RNS yesterday - news on Fiacre should be imminent too - also see one of the analysts (Brightwell?) downgraded to underweight yesterday

Fund a list
The downgrade didn't have much efect, going up steady.

KBC's Tony Alves was also at it again with DNX yesterday also giving a "reduce". He's really called this and SIA right over the last few months! In March he said "sell" DNX at 519, but now it's reduce! Lol!!

"KBC Peel Hunt says hold Wyevale Garden Centres (LSE: WGC.L - news) and reduce Dana Petroleum "

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/050824/336/fqcpx.html

Gav lol

Have you bought in yet?

KBC have written several notes on DNX in which the factual content is dubious to say the least imho. One of the guys on ADVFN has written to the analyst challenging the content of the latest one - needless to say he's still waiting for a response.

What i find amazing is that they are still working on an average oil price for this yr of circa $40 falling to $30 over the next 2 yrs and they are valuing reserves at approx $7 whereas the last few deals that have gone through have been at $15-$20. You have to pity the poor people who blindly follow these anal cysts and cant do their own research - happy to hold (would add if i wasnt already heavily exposed)

Fundy,

Got a small SB running just now which is doing okay. To go in heavier here I would have to sell some SIA and right now I'm not wanting to do that. Could have taken a bigger SB but didn't want to over-leverage myself. Might look to add some more over time depending on events etc. Been buying elsewhere this week so funds are a bit tight right now. I like to keep a bit in reserve in case something tasty comes up.

As to the "anal cycsts" Lol!! Funny that you should mention the fact that someone questioned their analysis and factual content on a DNX, wrote to KBC and had no reply. I'm sure you won't be shocked to find that the same thing happened in May of this year when they put out a note after SIA's recent CNV-3X well results came in. In their note, they refered to the well just haven been drilled as CNV-2X and not CNV-3X. Bit of a factual error there then! A respected poster on TMF posted on the site a letter he posted to Tony Alves pointing out quite a few errors in the note. Needless to say he hasn't had a reply either.

Looking at it this way, if you'd sold all your DNX when KBC advised, and I sold all my SIA when they advised, we'd both be considerable less well off, and very hacked off no doubt!

Latest round of north sea licenses announced this am:

http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/upstream/licensing/23_rnd/by_operator.xls

http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/upstream/licensing/23_rnd/23R_Award_map5.pdf

Dana Petroleum PLC
07 September 2005

PRESS RELEASE


DANA PETROLEUM PLC ('Dana' or 'the Company')

Dana Awarded 20 New UK Offshore Blocks

Dana Petroleum is delighted to report that it has been successful in its
extensive recent applications for new UKCS offshore blocks. The UK Energy
Ministry has confirmed that the Company is being offered 4 new licences,
awarding interests in a total of 20 offshore blocks, as part of the UK
Government's 23rd Offshore Licensing Round.

The first three licences comprise 18 blocks which lie in the prospective West of
Shetland region. These awards give Dana a large, directly held position in this
proven petroleum province, which complements its recently increased stake in
Faroe Petroleum plc where Dana is now the largest shareholder with 17.24%. Two
of these new licences comprise 17 blocks in Quads 208 and 209 of the
Faroe-Shetland Basin. Dana has gained a material 30% stake with co-venturers
DONG (UK) Limited (40%) and GDF Britain (30%). The committed work programme for
these two large tranches of acreage consists of acquisition of 2D seismic data.
The third West of Shetland licence comprises the majority of Block 204/14b which
is situated in the prolific Foinaven Sub-Basin to the north of the producing
Foinaven and Schiehallion fields. Dana has again won a 30% equity working with
OMV (U.K.) Limited (70%) the operator of adjacent Block 204/13. The committed
work programme for this licence consists of acquiring 2D seismic and
reprocessing 3D seismic.

The fourth new licence covers two Southern North Sea Blocks 42/28d and 42/29b.
These lie immediately to the west of the producing Johnston gas field (Dana
27.78%) and are contiguous with the exploration sub-areas of Blocks 42/29a, 42/
30a and 47/5c where Dana recently agreed terms with BP Exploration Operating
Company to acquire its interests in the undeveloped Monkwell gas field and the
Colden Parva gas prospect. The work programme for this licence consists of
acquiring and reprocessing 3D seismic data, following which Dana may choose to
either drill a well or relinquish the licence.

Commenting on the news, Tom Cross, Dana's Chief Executive, said:

'These significant awards will position Dana to build upon its successful
track-record of UK exploration activity which has already delivered further oil
and gas discoveries this year in the Melville and Barbara areas.'

Good to see they have been offered these licences. An Oilbarrel article on yesterdays awards, doesn't mention DNX though.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html

Rigzone piece on yesterday's awards.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=25036

Fund, gavdfc
The sp seems to be mirroring the oil price, whats the prospect of a dive if the barrel comes done significantly, or will the new licenses keep it up, (the sp that is)

Driver,

The sp does indeed seem to have mirrored the POO. Looking at the CLV5 chart, price fell from 60 to around $50 back in May before it started it's move back to where it is now.

CLV5

If you look at DNX's chart over a similar timescale, the recent move from around 5 started back in May also up to where it is now. It also shows the fall in DNX from around 6 in April to 5 in May before moving up as the POO started to move up. It does seem that DNX has moved in line with oil, as have the likes of VPC and BUR etc. I guess it would be fair to assume that volatility in oil prices would be matched by volatility in some sp's.

As to the new licence's keeping the sp up if oil pulls back, I wouldn't have thought so. Even if they do decide to drill any of the new prospects, I would imagine it would be quite a way off. From my reading of the RNS, there seems to be no actual commitment to drill, although at least they have the opportunity to decide whether to drill or not. Can't complain at that. Anway, just some thoughts of mine.

Personal opinion is that the SP like the pil price needed a breather. Oil reporting season starts next week with DNX nearer the end of the month. I think the results could well crystallise the impact the oil price is having on DNX being totally unhedged and also expecting some drilling news (Fiacre especially). Rerating by the end of the month based on results (profit and reserves upgrades)? 1100p-1200p???

all imho dyor etc etc

I wonder if a certain Mr Alves will change his mind when the results are out! ;-)

Reason for this mornings fall from the start perhaps?

Dana License Win Impact Seen Limited >DNX.LN

Wednesday, September 07, 2005 4:07:36 AM ET
Dow Jones Newswires



0758 GMT [Dow Jones] Dana Petroleum's (DNX.LN) successful application for 20 new licenses in the UK is unlikely to have a significant impact on the company in the short-term, says trader. Feels the company won't drill any wells under the licenses for at least a year and that prospect sizes, if any, are likely to be small. Trades -2.7% at 840p. (DWE)
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1003865.html

Gav

re Alves - some people are not for changing lol.

Re the report - which trader? and on basis is "the company won't drill any wells under the licenses for at least a year and that prospect sizes, if any, are likely to be small" - has he spoken to Tom Cross, has he had surveys done on the blocks or is he just sticking his finger in the air for some comments - i wonder which lol

Fundy,

Yup, best he doesn't change his outlook here as things have gone quite well with his recommendation so far!

As to the report, which trader seems just about right! Perhaps an advfn trader! The only part of his statement I sort of agree with is timescale for drilling as getting ready to drill if they do will take time. The rest of it seems garbage and pretty badly written to me. Somehow I dont think he talked to Tom Cross. I wonder if he gets many phone calls from traders! The only reason I posted it as it may account for the immediate sell off from the open for those who blindly follow this sort of stuff. It did give a good top up point for those who wanted it, and it seemed some did from the bounce from the lows.