Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

"The US Federal Reserve will need to slash interest rates three times this year as the housing slump goes from bad to worse and the American consumer begins to buckle, Goldman Sachs has warned."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/15/bcngold115.xml

[14:56 NEWS: BoE To Publish King Letter at 10:30GMT if CPI Above 3.0%] If
annualized UK December CPI comes in above 3.0% at 09:30GMT tomorrow, the BoE
will publish Governor Mervyn King"s open letter of explanation to Chancellor
Gordon Brown at 10:30GMT (Reuters).
Should such a letter be necessary, King will have to explain why CPI has moved
over 1.0% from its 2.0% target level. He would also have to detail the policy
action he is taking to deal with it, state how long it is likely to take for CPI
to return to target, and say how the BoE approach meets the government"s
monetary policy objectives (FT, p3).

[15:42 FX OPTIONS: GBP/USD Risk Reversals Favour GBP Calls] London, January 15.
Risk reversals hold a topside strike premium across the curve, with 1-mth 25
delta R/R 0.15/0.35 GBP calls over last. The 3-mth 25 delta R/R is currently
0.2/0.4 GBP calls over. The 1-year 25 delta R/R is presently 0.35/0.5 GBP calls
over.
On the exotic front: barriers reside up at 1.9900 and 2.0000, with a further
batch of triggers located above 2.0000. Sterling scaled a 14-year peak of 1.9849
at the start of last month (Dec 1).

[16:17 FX OPTIONS: GBP/USD Another 1.9650 Expiry Tomorrow] London, January 15.
Another 1.9650 option strike rolls off at tomorrow"s 10am EST NY cut (Tuesday,
15:00GMT), to follow today"s 1.9650 expiry.
This week"s key UK event risk is tomorrow"s 09:30GMT disclosure of December
inflation figures (See 2339 ).

Well done with the trade, Seymour. Please try not to let them spook you.

Welcome back Harlosh & Mel.

Good to see this thread come alive again. Currently about +200... Stop locked in at +157.

My view varies slightly from yours, Hils, in that there could be more upside to above 87 - but then the downside should easily take out 2005's low.



Nice to see the boys are back in town.
Well, almost all - all we need now is the mega motu :)

You could be right with your line, Choccy. It was really to demonstrate the general current strength of the greenback and to say that there was probably some more short term upside for it first. You'll frighten the Fairy though with talk of fresh lows.

:o)

Seymour,

You've got a nice rising support line to act as a stop on your trade. It passes through the lows of 11th and 12th Jan and is currently around the 1.9640 level. It's confirmed that support in Asian trade already this morning, so when it goes ............

Thanks Hils, stop now at 1.9620

It's all on the CPI and whether Merv has to write a letter to Gordon The Moron. I'd love to have been a fly on the wall if/when he wrote it.

:o)

Had a dream last night that cable went to 2.1000 this morning on terrible CPI! Oh how sad I'm becoming.

I just can't see that the CPI's going to be good if interest rates went up unexpectedly, but maybe not that bad!!!

It's all down to whether the strike was because of bad data or whether it was pre-emptive, Seymour. The market clearly thinks the data was bad and is expecting Merv to have written a letter.

UK inflation rate increases to 3%

The UK's rate of inflation jumped to 3% in December, according to the latest set of official figures.
The rise in the Consumer Prices Index, up from a rate of 2.7% in November, was at the top end of expectations.

However, an increase had been widely expected following last week's shock rise in interest rates to 5.25% by the Bank of England.

Retail Price Index inflation, which includes mortgage interest payments, rose to 4.4% in December from 3.9%.

No letter though.

How rude is that?

Should we write one for him?

Bit disappointing really. I was looking forward to a good laugh.

Dunno if this link will work or not (it's a pdf thingie)

Merv's principle on the Maradona theory of interest rates

As Gordon Brown put it ... "a credible framework means working within clearly defined long-term policy objectives, maximum openness and transparency, and clear and accountable divisions of responsibility."

Following a shock which moves inflation away from target and output from its normal level, there is discretion about the horizon over which inflation is brought back to target. But the exercise of that discretion must be clearly explained and justified in terms of the need, in the words of the remit of the Monetary Policy Committee, to avoid "undesirable volatility in output".

Stop was moved to 1.9640 after figs, now closed +197 :-)

edit, nicked +7 from a short, now over the magic 200, waiting for direction from 1.30 figs now.

Are the drinks on you then, Seymour?

:o)

Sure are Hils, pop into Lambykins later and I'll be glad to buy you all a drink if you can lift me off the floor :-)

[20:11 GMT January 16] GBP/USD reversed course and fell during the US session on
relief that UK CPI did not breach the 3% ceiling that would have prompted
Governor King to have to explain the price jump to Chancellor Brown. Heavy
profit-taking in GBP/JPY was noted by a Russian account today which helped knock
cable back below the 1.9600 level, triggering stops. That same account had been
a cable buyer earlier in the day. A bounce to 1.9640 unfolded after wire reports
of an evacuation on Capital Hill, but prices quickly pulled back when it was
revealed the evacuation was linked to a broken pipe and not a terror-scare.
1.9590 held on two attempts. Stops are eyed above 1.9640 near-term.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, dealers will closely eyed the UK unemployment
figures for signs of wages pressures, a key component in the BOE"s recent
concerns. Some wage settlements still linked to the RPI-X and that index surged
even more than CPI this morning. Average earnings are seen climbing at a 4.2%
annual rate in November. US industrial production and TIC data are highlights
tomorrow. IP is seen up 0.1%. Anything over $60 bln on TIC will be okay.


[20:17 FOREX: Newspaper Headlines for Wednesday, January 17] San Francisco,
January 16.
* BOJ Policy Board Likely To Forgo Rate Hike At Upcoming Meeting - Nikkei
* Toyota Would Consider Tie-Up With Ford If Asked: President - Nikkei
* Australian House prices to rise 7% in 2007: report - ninemsn.com.au
* Australian Skills shortage 'to intensify in 2007' - Ninemsn.com.au
* Telstra Shares at Highest in 16 Months - news.com.au
* Melbourne Power Meltdown - Melbourne Age
* NZ Economists Split on Interest Rates - xtramsn.co.nz
* NZ Tourism Booms Despite Weather - xtramsn.co.nz
* OPEC makes Case to Cut Oil Output to Buoy Prices - Melbourne Age
* Speculators the target, Bank of Thailand - Melbourne Age
* Crude Drops Further - nzcity.co.nz
* The Amazing NZ Business Confidence U-turn - NZ Herald
* Won Unlikely to Alter Course Near Term - Korea Times
* Korea Overseas Investment Promotion Policy Irks Offshore Funds - Korea Times
* Korea Concern over Japan-Like Stagnation - Korea Herald
* New Tax Breaks Stoke Concerns About Capital Outflow - Korea Herald
* Japan Commodities Brokers Clean Ranks - HK Standard
* Yuan Gains as China Looks to Narrow Trade Gap - HK Standard