Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hohumm. Looks like I called this short a bit premature yesterday. If I'd stayed in my longs, I'd have had the 300 or so pips that I was after by now.

The resistance of the downtrend looks to be at around 18290 this morning ..... could this be a near perfect window?

Morning, Hil.

Good morning, MM. Are you well?

That I am, Ma'am.

Post Gordon, neutral effect on FX?

Derek,

I don't think that Gordon Brown is capable of influencing the markets. The market already knows that he's a dipstick.

As I see it, we're at a set of fundamental crossroads at the moment which may, or may not, be responsible for a neutral effect.

Everybody knows that UK interest rates are going up soon. It's just when. Will it be April or May? And by 25 base points or 50?

Everybody also knows that Dubbya won't let US rates go up while he's running for re-election.

Therefore the should continue to rise against the $. But there's a fly in the ointment.

The Eurozone isn't doing so well and there's talk of them having to cut interest rates. Add to that speculation of ECB intervention a la BoJ (our Tone wouldn't dare do that!) and you've got a scenario whereby the should fall against the $.

But the and have hitherto been working in tandem against general $ sentiment, be it positive or negative. So if one cross should be going up and the other cross should be coming down, who's going to win?

It's all in the charts. Somewhere.

:o)

Hil, thanks for that, even if your conclusion is clearly influenced by the Concorde Method (q.v.).

They're both going up now, Derek. Looks like the won.

:o)

tops nearly in for the day though
reckon 183.82

watched todays lower high,
but with witching in usa thought
i'd be too busy to trade this as well.

silly boy, would've done better than
my ftse short.....

c'est la vie

I wouldn't normally post comments from one bulletin board onto a different board, but I thought these posts concerning the Cable might be of use. If there are any objections, I'll remove them. Some of these guys are smooth operators, imo.



nightcat
Senior Member

Registered: Jan 2004
Location:
Posts: 103
some preweek fundamentals
I must say that in spite of the choppy,difficult trading as of late; I'm very delighted by the cogent exchanges on the thread. The active posts are in essense as well thought out as many of the newsletter analyses that I read.

----My sources include weekly and daily reports from free thinkers such as Gary North, John Mauldin, Kurt Richenbacher, Richard Russell. and many others.

What I distill from all spells out a major to severe US economic downtrend beginning now or sometime in the 4th quarter---certainly after the 2004 elections.

The stock markets are probably pricing this in now. A few highly respected market forecasters like Gary North recommend shorting the S&P or Nasdaq. I won't get detailed here, but whatever are ones views re: US economic viability, a heightened sensitivity towards the telltale signs is now a must.

I have long disregarded the wallstreet cheerleading in this last year's bull run ---and since late 2003 have sidelined all equities investments except gold, silver and some commodities.

The implications for the USD are obvious if the markets continue this current slide. And if John Kerry builds more support expect heavier caution selling.

To me USD negatives greatly outnumber the pluses.
I can't see any internal factors to alter this equation.
------------good paying new jobs are anemic
------------outsourcing increases monthly
------------unions carry no clout
------------Rates will remain unchanged especially now, and hikes would pierce the housing bubble (with devastating economic results).
------------sliding stock indexes
------------slackening consumer confidence

Also, when the income tax refunds have run their cource, discretionary income will further dampen. With Refis mostly dried up the average consumer has few pools of ready spending fuel to drive the so-called growth engine.

A lower revised final 4th qtr. GDP # would not surprise me.


This week should see a pop in gold and the Cable.

---------------Nightcat



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03-22-2004 04:07 PM



MELBOURNE BOY
Member

Registered: Feb 2004
Location:
Posts: 33
Hi Guys,

Choppy is the word over the last few sessions.

There are lot of places this we can reverse from. Not to mention the possibility of an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily/weekly. I will wait for the 30th before adding any positions. Off to New York in the mean time!

Thanks Cable, I will be in touch shortly.

Cheers

MELBOURNE BOY
PS. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 are in very vulnerable positions at present. I am looking to get short in that market -if I can get the right price. Better opp. there at present.


Last edited by MELBOURNE BOY on 03-22-2004 at 10:35 PM

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03-22-2004 10:32 PM



JohnG_FX
Member

Registered: Feb 2004
Location:
Posts: 76
Morning Cable, Nightcat, Melbourne boy, Bongoman and everyone else

Closed longs @ 1.8350,

I don't think it's going much higher today before it heads down again. It hasn't managed to get past 1.8360 since the 1.8401 peak on Thursday

JohnG



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03-22-2004 11:37 PM



Bongoman
Junior Member

Registered: Jan 2004
Location:
Posts: 19
Long cable
Morning John G, Cable , Melbourne Boy, NightCat

I am long today at 18330 with a stop at 18250.Taken the long punt really because I feel Cable is consolidating at these levels before making a buts through this 18250 short term resistance.If we can bust through then a run hopefully ober 18400 to 18550-18580 for the next real resistance.

Was also boyed up with the fact that Cable touched 18260 early morning and immediately bounced back, could be support at that area with longs entering looking for the continuation of the rally.

I know this is swinging at the moment just get that "consolidation " feel here wher I suspect shorts are going to buckle in.

Good luck

Bongoman.



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03-22-2004 11:55 PM



Bongoman
Junior Member

Registered: Jan 2004
Location:
Posts: 19
Correction
Sorry Guys my earlier post I meant at bust through this 18350 resistance.

Best wishes

Bongoman Long 18330 Stop 18250!



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03-22-2004 11:57 PM



nightcat
Senior Member

Registered: Jan 2004
Location:
Posts: 103
9:30 gmt
JG,-----Livin up to my forum name handle and hanging thru the night sessions.

The dip was spawned by a probable BOJ intervention that bled over in a thin market. I had no news working so I assumed by the $/yen movemt.
I grabbed another lot on the break below 18280, but concern over a deeper reversal led me to exit with a scalpers gain. But after a few hours of gauging the action it really looks like the 18250 should hold inasmuch as how the Euro and Aussie/$ dipped well below their Friday's low, held and rallied back to current above Asian open levels.

I hate to be totally out while poised for a upswing.
Perhaps a buy off another bounce near the lows[if it happens] with a tight stop below 18245 can at least make for a good range trade.

Your exits,however, did yield a tidy net.

How did your FXCM seminar work out?? Any revelations?

-----------------Nightcat


Last edited by nightcat on 03-23-2004 at 12:23 AM

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03-23-2004 12:18 AM



Cable
Senior Member

Registered: Feb 2004
Location:
Posts: 168

Hi Nightcat,

I think poised for the upswing is an apt expression. I've got some entry longs @ 1.8220, stop 1.8180, limit open.

Cable



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03-23-2004 12:23 AM



Cable
Senior Member

Registered: Feb 2004
Location:
Posts: 168
JohnG,

I agree with what you say, but it just seems strange to me that the BOE is worried about consumer spending and then it puts in measures to stoke it up further!

The way they are going, they will cause irrepairable damage to manufacturing. BMW, VW, Siemens e.t.c. spend millions setting up factories here, and when they move them, they are not going to be coming back again in a hurry. Overhead costs for manufacturing are huge and pay back times are not the best, so to me, if they are serious about the economy, they should be doing the exact opposite of what they have done. Maybe its just the elections coming up next May, but this way they will risk a housing crash and its all downhill from there.


Cable



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03-23-2004 12:28 AM



Cable
Senior Member

Registered: Feb 2004
Location:
Posts: 168
some preweek fundamentals
Nightcat,

Thanks for this post. It is very interesting and it also ties in with what Stelzer said. UK is in the same position, but maybe there is a bit more firepower available if Gordon Brown stokes up the housing market here. Maybe that is why he has done what he has re the pension regs and the residential market.

It just figuring out now which currency is going to suffer most longer term.

Cable

thanks for all that hilary,
like the diary.

not traded it much the past week or two, but
if it can't break 184.00 soon then may try a small short

Just Fancy That . . .

The Lib Dem's Treasury Spokesman is a Mr Cable.

great info thanks hils which bb are they from, can u say

DealerDave,

No problem ..... its fxcm.co.uk

Beebs,

I wouldn't be going short all the time it's above 18280 (support of the rising trend atm) except for a scalp which isn't really my style.

Cable looking set now for a retest of 18586 which proved to be resistance on 8/3/04

Cable consolidation support at 18435 seems like a good long stop to me. A break of that should give a good opportunity to get in again at a lower level.

Closed the long cable earlier at 18490.than managed a couple os short scalps.
the cable is finding the 1.85 level a bit of tough nut to crack atm.Lets see what happens.
rgds
zarif

Update Time: Hong Kong 09:00 London 01:00 New York 20:00



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - March 23rd

GBPUSD

Price: 1.8460
Day View
Resistance: 1.8495 1.8510 1.8530 1.8560

Support: 1.8440 1.8410 1.8380 1.8360



Bias: Higher

Bullish: In fact we saw direct resumption of the move higher and this look positive still. We look for 1.8440 (max downside 1.8410) to hold and look for further tests higher through the 1.8496 high. Watch resistance at 1.8510 - it does have potential to hold but we feel more inclined to a stronger bullish scenario today that could take the Pound higher to 1.8590. However, this level looks strong and should hold.



Bearish: The move higher yesterday provides a more positive note to the Pound and we feel the maximum downside will probably be the 1.8440 area though we should allow for 1.8410. Thus only below 1.8400 would cause us to look for immediate reversal and a decline down to 1.8360 at least which could slow the decline. Further support is at 1.8270.





Week View
Resistance: 1.8510 1.8590 1.8670 1.8720

Support: 1.8270 1.8195 1.8095 1.7905



Further strength seen above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which keeps the bullish stance intact. Schaff Trend Cycle remained at 100 with FXS-RSI dipping below overbought territory and signalling a possible bearish divergence. With the break of the channel high we must be prepared for further strength with 1.8590 and 1.8670 as key resistance levels.



Bullish: We continue to use the break of the channel high to point to possible further gains and while the channel high remains intact on any retest we look for resumption of the move higher which would be confirmed on a break of 1.8405. However, we must also be aware of a possible messy correction and a break of the key 1.8470-80 area would be needed to confirm the move higher. Once above the next resistance is at 1.85290 and then 1.8670.



Bearish: The top at 1.8403 has held thus far and we may see further choppy dips down to the 1.8195-1.8425 area. However, we do see this as the probable low. Thus only below 1.8190 area and more importantly the downward moving channel high would cause an earlier and more aggressive decline which would then target the 1.8095 and 1.8025 areas en route 1.7820.



Month View
(Updated 22nd February)

Resistance: 1.8875 1.9025 1.9140 1.9305

Support: 1.8520 1.8205 1.8020 1.7820



We were rather disappointed by the break back above 1.8577 but now consider the 1.9140 high seen last week as a probable key peak and look for losses to develop over the coming months. These should break below 1.8520 and 1.8205 en route the 1.7820 corrective low at least.

Morning Hilary:
Just opened a long cable June and am leaving it in the Lap of Gods as am off to a Gann Seminar at stockport.

rgds
zarif

Ps: nice sunny day today -hope it shines on all of us today in our trades.