Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

If we vote leave, I would expect the pound and stocks to fall on Friday. However, if Leave is looking strong before the vote the market should fall quite heavily next week and recover on the Friday or Monday. They say 'move on rumours and recover on confirmation'.

Uncertainty is the game right now.

the market will rise big time on a leave vote .the money will pour in to the uk
remember this French rich and Italians will buy british and shares

I can see no reason why money should pour into UK as our future is very uncertain for several years.

hay it will be far more uncertain for the corrupt eu with 20b less to spend and no chance of Greece or the other countries paying more money into the kitty

and gemany having to find work for a million migrants and feed and house them
and the ones that leave the uk .
then vw and its massive fines that are coming plus another big issue for the germans coming it will tear the germans apart vw will have to cut wages cut pensions and pay more into the eu coffers .

MERKIL DAYS ARE NUMBERED AND WILL BE DRIVEN OUT OF GERMANY THE EVIL BITCH

Safe haven for hot money?



London house prices up 14% in a year, ONS data shows


In London the average house price is now more than £470,000



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/london-house-prices-up-14-in-a-year-ons-data-shows-a7081566.html

uk investment property is likely to benefit as it will be much cheaper due to falling £
uk exporters will benefit for the same reason
uk companies with a high proportion of overseas earnings will benefit for the same reason

==============

london house prices have stagnated at best
in fact, ask any estate agent, and he'll tell you if he's honest that properties are not shifting at all
the referendum is trotted out as an excuse

highest luxury end is suffering worst as chinese, russian and nigerian buyers run for the hills before their swags of cash are investigated under the ever-tightening laundering laws

I had a booking to go to the south of france for all of august for 11 of us we have cancelled . we are going to go to florida to say we are here for our American friends

#614 c?

The average house price for London is not accurate. It is distorted by the very high end properties. The average house that real people buy are much cheaper.

Economies are stagnating, the currencies and debt markets determine winners and losers.
With it's massive debt, it is doubtful if the US dollar can retain it's status as the world's default currency much longer. The US Fed has bailed out a lot of private debt holders, the ECB holds lots of euro private debt and China and Japan governments hold a lot of their private debts. Our own Bank of England has bought up a smaller chunk of UK private debt. In a large part private debt is now part nationalised.

Now that all else has just about failed, the world's central banks are set to re inflate the worlds economy by going for the helicopter solution of throwing out money and going negative on interest rates.

Sterling is unlikely to be left standing, much less make it into the top league.
Who ever can wipe out most debt wins.
The surprise might be how well the Euro comes out of it. Who knows.

Anyway, In or Out we might just trigger the cascade.

Go to cash. But which currency.??? And maybe too late for sterling holders.

my info is from the horses mouth
though prices may (arguably) have risen 14% in the last year, it does not tell you anything about the current state of the market
and is that 14% on asking price or completions?

will - i don't agree at all with your argument re $, but of course the answer to your last para is that gold is likely to be taken as the safe haven as has traditionally been the case

Gold is already showing signs of being a hedge. If we leave I have no doubt our economy will receive a hit in the short term at least. The same applies to the EU and probably the US. It has the prospect of causing a recession, hopefully mild, in the UK, EU and US. I will vote out, but I have a worry that it may create havoc across Europe.

If they do go for the helicopter solution at the ECB then it'l weaken the euro
and thus make the pound a safe haven.

Cynic

Gold maybe. I think Trump will play a big part in $ status. He just needs to talk about possible overseas bond holders and hair cuts to shake the faith in $.

Those that are likely to feel pain in the next 5 years are pensioners with cash/bonds as returns will be low. Assets could get hit too. House prices maybe back 25%. Not a bad thing.

at the quack this morning i happened to pick up a copy of the economist ..... that publication was scathing about trump, as indeed he warrants

don't at all see why house prices should fall 25% ..... perhaps fall 4/5% or even stagnate for a year or two, but no worse than that

I don't see how anyone can pick a figure out of the air re houses prices.

Nor what they will do when we dump the €urobun.

They are so madly over the top versus earnings, anything could happen...or nothing.

Cynic
Think house builders heading well down.
Was stopped out of long term holdings in house builders some time ago. Only holding Kingspan and Unite student acc. Actually short Bdev and Tw. now
Your favourite Telford did well to sell on major projects to big rental players and housing associations. Suspect they seen rapidly slowing sales.
Will watch Foxtons for a sign of re newed London bubble, and as an indicator of when to pile back in.
But suspect will not be till after Sept, if at all this year.

Grannyb
Maybe. But Euro zone can reinflate by going negative on ECB rates and throwing out a little cash . Eventually raising rates ahead of us will pull lots of cash in. ECB has more fire power than our BOE. They probably have more balls than BOE as well, if and when helicopter cash has to go flying.

The 50ma on a weekly chart for house builders is a good general indicator.

september is not far away
the scene is becoming somewhat baby and bathwater, but reckon RMV is a better indicator of the immediate sentiment than FOXT