Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Safe haven for hot money?



London house prices up 14% in a year, ONS data shows


In London the average house price is now more than £470,000



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/london-house-prices-up-14-in-a-year-ons-data-shows-a7081566.html

uk investment property is likely to benefit as it will be much cheaper due to falling £
uk exporters will benefit for the same reason
uk companies with a high proportion of overseas earnings will benefit for the same reason

==============

london house prices have stagnated at best
in fact, ask any estate agent, and he'll tell you if he's honest that properties are not shifting at all
the referendum is trotted out as an excuse

highest luxury end is suffering worst as chinese, russian and nigerian buyers run for the hills before their swags of cash are investigated under the ever-tightening laundering laws

I had a booking to go to the south of france for all of august for 11 of us we have cancelled . we are going to go to florida to say we are here for our American friends

#614 c?

The average house price for London is not accurate. It is distorted by the very high end properties. The average house that real people buy are much cheaper.

Economies are stagnating, the currencies and debt markets determine winners and losers.
With it's massive debt, it is doubtful if the US dollar can retain it's status as the world's default currency much longer. The US Fed has bailed out a lot of private debt holders, the ECB holds lots of euro private debt and China and Japan governments hold a lot of their private debts. Our own Bank of England has bought up a smaller chunk of UK private debt. In a large part private debt is now part nationalised.

Now that all else has just about failed, the world's central banks are set to re inflate the worlds economy by going for the helicopter solution of throwing out money and going negative on interest rates.

Sterling is unlikely to be left standing, much less make it into the top league.
Who ever can wipe out most debt wins.
The surprise might be how well the Euro comes out of it. Who knows.

Anyway, In or Out we might just trigger the cascade.

Go to cash. But which currency.??? And maybe too late for sterling holders.

my info is from the horses mouth
though prices may (arguably) have risen 14% in the last year, it does not tell you anything about the current state of the market
and is that 14% on asking price or completions?

will - i don't agree at all with your argument re $, but of course the answer to your last para is that gold is likely to be taken as the safe haven as has traditionally been the case

Gold is already showing signs of being a hedge. If we leave I have no doubt our economy will receive a hit in the short term at least. The same applies to the EU and probably the US. It has the prospect of causing a recession, hopefully mild, in the UK, EU and US. I will vote out, but I have a worry that it may create havoc across Europe.

If they do go for the helicopter solution at the ECB then it'l weaken the euro
and thus make the pound a safe haven.

Cynic

Gold maybe. I think Trump will play a big part in $ status. He just needs to talk about possible overseas bond holders and hair cuts to shake the faith in $.

Those that are likely to feel pain in the next 5 years are pensioners with cash/bonds as returns will be low. Assets could get hit too. House prices maybe back 25%. Not a bad thing.

at the quack this morning i happened to pick up a copy of the economist ..... that publication was scathing about trump, as indeed he warrants

don't at all see why house prices should fall 25% ..... perhaps fall 4/5% or even stagnate for a year or two, but no worse than that

I don't see how anyone can pick a figure out of the air re houses prices.

Nor what they will do when we dump the €urobun.

They are so madly over the top versus earnings, anything could happen...or nothing.

Cynic
Think house builders heading well down.
Was stopped out of long term holdings in house builders some time ago. Only holding Kingspan and Unite student acc. Actually short Bdev and Tw. now
Your favourite Telford did well to sell on major projects to big rental players and housing associations. Suspect they seen rapidly slowing sales.
Will watch Foxtons for a sign of re newed London bubble, and as an indicator of when to pile back in.
But suspect will not be till after Sept, if at all this year.

Grannyb
Maybe. But Euro zone can reinflate by going negative on ECB rates and throwing out a little cash . Eventually raising rates ahead of us will pull lots of cash in. ECB has more fire power than our BOE. They probably have more balls than BOE as well, if and when helicopter cash has to go flying.

The 50ma on a weekly chart for house builders is a good general indicator.

september is not far away
the scene is becoming somewhat baby and bathwater, but reckon RMV is a better indicator of the immediate sentiment than FOXT

From The Guardian:

Stock market panic? It'll be much worse if Britain votes leave
Nils Pratley


A closer look at the markets suggests investors are only mildly worried about Brexit – or that they think it won’t happen

The Reichstag in Berlin. The German political and financial establishment is pleading for the UK to remain in the EU. Photograph: Mlenny/Getty Images

Tuesday 14 June 2016 19.31 BST
Last modified on Tuesday 14 June 2016 20.17 BST

Brexit fears stalk global markets? Only up to a point. Since the polls turned in leave’s favour, the FTSE 100 index has lost 370 points, or 5.8%, but is still well above February’s lows. The pound has fallen from $1.45 to $1.41 against the dollar, and from €1.28 to €1.26 against the euro. These are notable moves but they are not big enough to be called panicky.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s record-breaking piece of market action – German 10-year bunds trading at a negative yield – was also being blamed on Brexit-inspired fears of a pan-European jolt to economic growth.

FTSE 100 hits three-month low as Brexit fears grow

But, again, one needs to tread carefully. German yields have been falling ever since the financial crisis of 2008. The march from 1% to zero started a year ago and (aside from low growth and low inflation in the eurozone) owes much to the European Central Bank’s huge programme of quantitative easing, or buying bonds regardless of price.

Brexit, to be fair, may have contributed something to the latest fall in German bond yields. But let’s not overstate it. A fortnight ago, when a remain victory looked an 80% probability, investors were willing to receive 0.2% for 10 years to lend to the German government; now they are willing to pay 0.05% for the privilege. A line has been crossed, but we’re talking small actual movements in prices.

So, if one takes a step back from the non-existent mayhem, two conclusions are possible. First, investors are only mildly worried about Brexit and think the short-term economic consequences are either hard to predict or exaggerated. Alternatively, markets don’t think it will happen.

The guess here is that it’s the second. Why? Cast your mind back to last summer when Greece’s survival in the eurozone was in genuine doubt. The country’s banks closed and financial markets fell into a proper swoon. Yet – in financial and economic terms – Greece was, and remains, a tiddler. Brexit, rather than Grexit, would represent a far bigger shock to the entire eurozone/EU project.

No wonder the German political and financial establishment is pleading for the UK to remain. It would rather delay the day when the eurozone has to sign up to fiscal transfers – rich countries paying for poorer members – to ensure long-term survival. Treaty changes will be necessary and demands for referendums will only be encouraged by the UK’s example. While one vote to leave the EU might be tolerable, two might lead to a deeper unravelling, especially if the next opt-out were to be a eurozone member such as the Netherlands.

Have markets priced in such political risks? Almost certainly not. There has been a modest widening of bond spreads between Germany and so-called peripheral eurozone members, like Spain and Portugal, but faith remains high in the ECB’s ability to do “whatever it takes” to keep the show on the road.

Maybe, in the long-run, a UK exit from the EU would have a bracing effect of the eurozone’s attempts to cure its deep economic ills. That must be one possible script since eurozone politicians seem capable of collective action only when presented with a crisis.

Just don’t expect markets to display any such breezy confidence if they wake up to a leave vote on 24 June. If Grexit looked scary, Brexit raises bigger uncertainties. The past week’s market action, one suspects, would look like a tea party.
Shy Green comes out of his shell

Hurrah, Sir Philip Green has “given long and hard thought to the matter” and decided to turn up to answer questions from MPs on Wednesday about “the very sad BHS story”. He’s still complaining about parliamentarians making up their minds before they’ve heard the evidence but, never mind, he’ll be there.

But, please, Sir Philip, drop the parallel grumble about this being your “first and only opportunity” to tell your side of tale. You were free at any point since BHS’s administration in April to give an account. You could have issued a statement, held a press conference, whatever you wished. You have never previously been shy about sharing your views. Well done, the MPs, for ensuring we hear them.
Bookies need a nought to worry about

Is the Gambling Commission getting tougher? Well, the financial penalties for disobeying anti-money laundering and responsible gambling rules are becoming bigger. Betfred received an £800,000 penalty on Tuesday. That – and an £880,000 hit to GalaCoral a few weeks ago – was a step up from the derisory £280,000 handed down to Paddy Power earlier in the year. All different cases, of course. But given the size of some of these firms, penalties of less than £1m don’t hurt. Add a zero and the commission might get noticed in boardrooms.

this board has turned very strange, insofar as there is now hardly a mention of shares to trade - apart from the odd bits and pieces i put on the FTSE thread

Perhaps this is the pie in the sky you want!

My son went to the filming of this Thursday's Mock the week. He said that there was a lot that might not make it to air. They spent about half an hour doing jokes about Corbyn so I guess a few will be in.

There was one joke that might not get in. The name EU was terrible and could only be made worse by naming it Top Gear.

There was another joke about Bruce Forsythe's daughter being the same age as the Queen.

Geldof wants to stay in the eu if we leave we might have too pay more for cannabis an

Geldof is the biggest arse hole in the world . and has made is money on lies and using the poor ,
why has he not given is money to charity no he takes money
never helped any one other than is self a vile horrible man
and is family tell you all