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MOS International: (a new thread) Oil Engineers on the turnaround (MOI)     

chad - 12 Apr 2005 16:42

Now that we all know what the prospects for MOS are i.e. damn good, thought I'd get a new thread going and just highlight MOS' attractions for any new investors.

Key highlights:

* Significant progress made, rationalisation programme almost complete

* Acquisitions integrated well

* International marketing network established

* Record order books, enquiry levels high, several new customers won

* Recent Director buys

From the Chairman's statement:

Outlook

Over the past year the management team has extended the product range, put in
place in-house manufacturing, rationalised the existing business and greatly
expanded the marketing effort, opening up significant new markets to MOS
products. Once the acquisitions have been fully integrated MOS will offer a
wider product range to a broader market and have a much reduced cost base. We
have record order books, we have attracted major new customers and we are
targeting new markets, worldwide. Overall, we have made good progress and the
outlook remains extremely positive.

Trading Update

MOS International PLC ('MOS'), the oilfield services company, announces that
trading is in line with market expectations. TURNOVER FOR THE YEAR TO 31st MARCH 2005 IS EXPECTED TO BE CIRCA 10M COMPARED WITH 1.05M IN THE YEAR TO 31st MARCH 2004.

MOS currently has an order book in excess of 7m for delivery prior to the year
end.

The recent acquisitions have integrated well, the rationalisation programme at
MOS is almost complete and that at Ansell Jones will be completed in this
financial year.

Tender and enquiry levels remain high and the Board is positive regarding the
future. Significant progress has been made and the business is well on the road
to recovery, with turnover forecast to show a further considerable increase, in
the next financial year.

On a turnover of 10million with a profit of say 1million, this company is on a P/E ratio of just 8 (market cap being around 8million at present). This company has been overlooked by the institutions and investors alike and is due a big re-rating soon IMHO. DYOR as usual.

Chad.

stockdog - 26 Sep 2005 12:34 - 717 of 890

MMs obviously have at last realised their debt to society and are trading at nil spread! lollhah!!!!

sd

iturama - 26 Sep 2005 15:07 - 718 of 890

Still a zero spread so impossible to say if people are buying or selling to day. I guess they are buys since the MM's are quick to drop the bid after a few consecutive sells - be-kind-to-the-punter day or not!

chrissie - 26 Sep 2005 23:59 - 719 of 890

So results tomorrow then. Regardless of how the sp performs tomorrrow I'm in this for at least another 18months (2 years in total at least). This is a good recovery stock, as I'm sure we will find out in the Chairmans statement tomorrow. I am sure it will show a positive outlook and that the company is going from strength to strength.

Good luck everyone! :-)

iturama - 27 Sep 2005 07:32 - 720 of 890

The results are historical and the share price reflects that. It is the future that matters, although the note doesn't really say anymore than we already know:

PROSPECTS

The Group is now much fitter and leaner than for some time and the Board and
management are confident and excited by the Company's potential. The results are
clear testament to a very tough eighteen months and I and my colleagues have
worked tirelessly throughout this very difficult period. We recognise our
shareholders have also been very patient and supportive whilst the restructuring
has been going on. The Directors remain ambitious and believe that, although
some rationalisation costs have fallen within the first six months of this
financial year, the Group is on target to increase sales and achieve
profitability in the current financial year.

The order book continues to grow, and the Board shall ensure the Group is able
to fulfil these orders by seeking improved banking facilities and if necessary
we shall raise more equity to ensure that orders can be accepted, delivery
schedules met and the Company's profitability maximised. The business we are in
is long term and whilst the current losses are frustrating for both management
and shareholders, the excellent opportunities that now exist will reward
everyone's hard work and patience.

We have made substantial progress and we believe your Company is in good shape
to capitalise on today's markets and importantly, we firmly believe the buoyancy
of the markets will continue. The exceptionally high oil prices may not prevail
for ever, but even with some fall in oil prices, the oil services sector should
not be susceptible to the cyclical nature that has previously prevailed and
damaged your Company so badly in the past. We have made great strides forward
from a near impossible position; the outlook remains exciting, positive and
profitable for our shareholders.

chrissie - 27 Sep 2005 08:10 - 721 of 890

"the outlook remains exciting, positive and profitable for our shareholders"

That'll do for me. I am hoping that any disappointment is already in the sp and we will now begin to move up. Like I said 18months 2 years!

stockdog - 27 Sep 2005 08:37 - 722 of 890

Very positive statement from Philip Wood, but short/mid-term prospects for the SP must be tempered byt he intention to raise 3.5m share capital. At 0.5p a share (optimistically?) that's 700m shares almost the same as curently in issue - so a massive dilution balanced against unknown operating profit projections. Hence the sharp drop today.

Let's hope the AGM will contain more specific news of curent contracts and turnover/profit projections for the current year.

On balance, though a very confident statement, which seems to suggest that MOI are worth sticking with for now.

Chrissie, I guess you can keep your powder dry for now.

sd

chrissie - 27 Sep 2005 09:09 - 723 of 890

They'll only issue more shares if they need to. If they get a huge order for a rig then of course they will need working capital.

partridge - 27 Sep 2005 09:23 - 724 of 890

Barely solvent and raising of new capital essential to survival. After progress made in other areas, it would be a pity if they failed at the final hurdle, but new shareholders unlikely to do existing ones any favours in the short term. Think Chrissie will have to keep herself in shape quite a bit longer, but staunch support may prove well founded in the end. Gut feel says they will survive - and if financing sorted I may join in.

stockdog - 27 Sep 2005 12:04 - 725 of 890

partridge - today, I'd rather be in your position - watching and waiting - than in mine - hoping and holding. However, nil desperandum as the Romans used to say.

sd

bosley - 27 Sep 2005 12:26 - 726 of 890

sd, i didn't buy back in and am quite relieved i didn't. it does come across that there has been lots of hard work going on behind the scenes, so , maybe "par est fortuna labori" might be more appropriate. good luck and what a pity we wont be seeing chrissie shed her clothes!!!

ptholden - 27 Sep 2005 12:35 - 727 of 890

Chrissie, sorry your expectations have not been fulfilled in the short term, although I was expecting the numbers to be poor and the market reaction.

Also second Bos' comment!! :-)) We'll just have to wait a bit longer.

pth

Pommy - 27 Sep 2005 16:31 - 728 of 890

There arent 700mil shares in issue, there are 1.257billion!

stockdog - 27 Sep 2005 17:06 - 729 of 890

Sorry, forgot the new issues since end of March! I was looking at the number as reported for eps purposes. However, 700m new shares to raise 3.5m is still a hefty proportion of those currently in issue - dilution concerns still stand.

The Owl - 27 Sep 2005 19:17 - 730 of 890

Well no one can pretend it's been a nice day - with a +20% drop it hasn't!

There are some questions to be asked - not least why t/o was so low. Apparently it's orders cancelled that we were'nt told about! Some orders may have been delayed to appear in this years t/o figure - we need clarity on this wrt the c15m figure. Bankside told me today this hadn't changed and perhaps we'll get clarity soon??! - we need it though of course all sorts of things can happen to 'expected' orders - even ones where work has started.

That apart t/o is 3x last year, and had costs been as for last year (i.e.1.633m), we would have seen a profit for 2005. They weren't, and we will see a loss for first half 2006 (ending 30 Sept 2005) too - but the rationalisation is complete.

If t/o is increased by 3m (i.e. c7m), and/or costs can be decreased by 2m then we should see a profit for 2006. IMO, the validity of the c15m figure is now absolutely key. Funding? Looks like the JV is the only really viable way forward until cash comes through from other deals - at least it will help MOI pace itself.

I guess this is the way AIM is - you can either buy RBS at support level of 15.60 wait 1+ years for it to go up 20% to 18.70 then fall back to 16.20ish today, or buy an AIM share and see it go up (as we did recently!) from 0.40p-0.62p (55%) in a week, then go down 20% in a day!!

Might actually attend the AGM in October...could help get closer to the company!

stockdog - 27 Sep 2005 19:58 - 731 of 890

Good analysis Owl.

Bad day all round for me in many diverse directions. They say that September is the cruellest month (whoever "they" are) in the stock market. Do you suppose the MMs were trying to take a little advantage of loose holders and shake a few early autumnal leaves from the tree of wealth? Or is that too simplistic - the volume was above average but not enough to suggest that too many investors were inclined to head for the hills.

What will tomorrow bring - a conciliatory tick up, or a savage confirmation that we are in for a long hard winter?

Colossus magnitudinem suam servabit etiam si steterit in puteo seems an apt valetudinary exit for this evening.

sd

The Owl - 27 Sep 2005 20:50 - 732 of 890

sd - many thanks.
You asked for my prediction tomorrow: A gap down on the open would be the norm, hovering around 0.37-0.39 mark till afternoon - possible low of about 0.30, and finish the day closing 0.39/0.40. Next day, should start climbing again (or might wait till next week)! That do you?

ps these results don't mean there's no activity on new orders - there may be new things in progress, and not PMH this time ;-)

The Owl - 27 Sep 2005 22:22 - 733 of 890

Bit of very old history.
http://www.seymourpierce.com/pdf/prospectuses/recent/MOS_International_plc.pdf

chrissie - 28 Sep 2005 03:30 - 734 of 890

Owl

Please go to the AGM in October, we need to get as much info as possible. I'm sticking with this as they are in the right business at the right time. I also think that anyone new to MOI and reading the story so far will be impressed and buy as many did today. We're all disappointed because we were expecting so much more. Another thing is that todays results is all old news. Alot has probably changed over the last 6 months and we are heading towards profitability. The one thing I am most unhappy about is the t/o figure because I actually bought more shares on the strength of that and I will be contacting Bankside and telling them what I think. That said I am in this for the long haul so it really didn't matter about results but it would be nice to feel a little more comfortable. I still think our day will come.

My stripping days will be well and truely over by the time the 2p party comes round.

iturama - 28 Sep 2005 07:23 - 735 of 890

Buys and sells were almost in balance yesterday. It was the momentum that took it down, not helped by the MM's marking the price down 10% before a shot was fired.
On the positive side we are already 6 months into the year that MOI expects to turn a profit so I am sticking with it (along with +99% of the other shareholders) and will add if any further weakness. The number of shares in issue is not a big deal, the mkt cap is still less than 5M. MOI's interest in Patriot Mech has a nominal value in excess of that.
That said, the company has to make its targets, or better, to improve shareholder confidence. It might also consider a share consolidation.

mackem - 28 Sep 2005 15:30 - 736 of 890

Overhang here too and a big one !

Online you can sell 375k but buy 3 million in one go and this is
why the price is steadily dropping.
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