The hcl looks likely to come into operation over the next few months, will this improve the share price or will we have to wait for an actual PSA before any increase takes place? It looks like the UK and the US will wait until the HCL is in place first before they decide to start the pull out. I have also heard news that the contracts signed during the Saddam regime are now definitely going to be honoured. I`m not sure if this includes PET as there seems to be some doubt as to whether they qualify as their agreement wasn`t signed off by Saddam. A Swiss company has announced that they expect to be producing 200,000 barrels/pd by 2009 from their PSA with the Kurds. They have struck oil first time and have five more drills left to complete their programme. Nice if PET were in that position! Our time will come though, just a matter of hanging on in there!!

In market mayhem,PET stood up very well on friday.Buyers moved in 89p-91.75p.

100michael - 10 Aug'07 - 10:39 - 90060 of 90291

This is the opportunity of a lifetime - staring us all in the face, PET have an unprecedented opportunity, work effort exactly right over last 9 years, strong relationships built, strong capable leaders at the top, proved not to be just there to take but to give something back to the people of Iraq, diplomats, and rightly so, PET have helped train local people and have invested and delivered aid to the needy over last 9 years,flying in essential baby food and medical supplies etc, sponsoring local community, want to and are working with the Iraqi people, prepared to live in Iraq, walking the walk, ready to hit the ground running at a moments notice, right there on the ground - not just prepared to study seismics for the next few years from the safety of overseas boardrooms, taking risks right now side by side with the Iraqi people, the foundations are built, the trust is being won, the directors are genuine, commited people - essential in this situation, the HCL will soon pass, our PET will be ready, and unless you are accumulating a decent holding you will be kicking yourselves, buy when everyone else is selling, greed when everyone else is fearful, if you prefer, or average up, or down...it doesn't really matter, the point is this might be THE investment of your lifetime...I can not believe people are prepared to risk trading in and out of this stock, and as for the fearful ones selling, they obviously have not done their homework on PET, or are using funds they really should not be using as this is a long term play, and the tight holders are fortunate indeed to have discovered this company - buy at any price imho/pdyor

Note: oil in the ground has a value pre-production.

kdickson - 15 May'07 - 12:45 - 77730 of 90291


All this talk of 5 per share makes me think it's time for a 'fag packet' calculation to keep us focussed on the massive potential of PET.

Does anyone remember an ADVFN poster named edgein who was an O&G guru who used to post on the EME/VOG threads. The following part post were his thoughts on one method he used to value oil in the ground:-

The other method I use which you might prefer and I think is less complicated but just a rough guide:
Use the current oil price to work out the current Net Present Value of the oil reserves of a co. Take 10% of that value as the value of oil in the ground and that gives a present value based on the current market oil. A simplier and much quicker system to use. I personally rarely use PE to calculate the value of an oil stock My system tends to be highly conservative, but then again I'm rarely disappointed and regularly in profit.

Im no expert on valuing oil companies but, based on the above, does anyone majorly disagree with the sort of share price achievable in my calcualtions below?

Petrels presentation said Block 6 has 3 to 5 billion barrel potential.

Lets say 4 billion barrels at $55 = $2,200 billion
Divide by 2 to get into pounds = 1,100 billion
Take 10% as value of oil in ground = 110 billion
Take 20% as PSA share = 2,200 million
Split 3 ways (Itochu/Makman/PET) = 740 million each (approx)
Divide by 74 million shares = 10 /share (74m mentioned in presentation)

(Mmmm, now whos always predicted 10 share price!?)

i.e. for every 1 billion barrels, value to PETs share price for oil in the ground is 2.50

Now, toting up PETs potential contracts:-
Halfaya 10 billion barrels
S&L (deeper levels) 2 bbls (say)
Merjan 0.75 bbls
Block 6 4 bbls
TOTAL = 16.75 billion barrels at 2.50 per bbls = oil in ground price of 40 + (excludes East Safawi as well!).

mclellan - 12 Aug'07 - 18:28 - 90312 of 90319


Iraqi PM calls for political leaders' meeting

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Sunday , 12 /08 /2007 Time 9:26:57




Baghdad, Aug 12, (VOI)- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called on Sunday for a summit meeting by political leaders during the two upcoming days.




"The internal political problems the country is suffering from, have forced me to make a call for the Iraqi political leaders to meet in a summit during the next two days," Maliki told a news conference in Baghdad.
The Prime Minister added "the aim behind the summit is to address basic topics arisen in the Iraqi political arena as well as considering the political program and the strategic problems facing the government."
"The meeting is to address the political program agreed upon when the current government was formed and ways to implement it. Demands submitted by individual blocs will be discussed as allowed by the constitution," Maliki told reporters concerning the topics on the meeting agenda.
The Iraqi Prime Minister who expected a number of decisions out of the summit including naming substitute ministers to replace the Sadrists who quit from the cabinet said "we will not stop at discussing the demands by the blocs; rather we will consider the commitments they have to honor as well."
"Demands submitted by the blocs will be implemented if they complied with the constitution, otherwise we will apologize for them," Maliki noted.
As regards naming new Sunni ministers to replace the quit Accordance Front ministers, the Iraqi Prime Minister said "we hope that the crisis will end and the Accordance ministers be back to the cabinet but if they refused to do so we will find ourselves obliged to replace them."
Al-Maliki also stressed that his government will not collapse saying "it is a wish by some but it is far the day when people would see the government in its count down."
The Prime Minister applauded the Iraqi security forces saying "the forces are working on two parallel lines to strike with iron arm on the heads of terror and to increase, develop and train the already existing troops."
"The terror going on in Iraq has links to foreign states that were adopting ideologies hostile to Iraq but recently they felt that supporting terror will make it spread outside Iraq to other countries," the Iraqi Premier told reporters.
The Prime Minister who just ended official visits to Turkey and Iran told the news conference that he got pledges from Turkey and Iran to support Iraq in face of violence and providing basic services to its people, noting that he would visit other regional countries in the upcoming days.
Al-Maliki also welcomed the U.N. resolution to expand its work in Iraq saying "the resolution is in favor of the government as it will enhance our efforts and policies."
SK



mclellan - 12 Aug'07 - 18:37 - 90313 of 90319


Maliki gives upbeat revelation on government's performance
Baghdad (NINA) Iraqi Prime Minister has given an upbeat revelation about the performance of the government within the coming days. In a news conference held Sunday, Nouri Al-Maliki said a meeting, for which the cabinet has called on all political leaders to consider the strategic deadlocks
**********************
So, the Govt still seems to be working away...

pixi - 12 Aug'07 - 21:42 - 90318 of 90319


The 21st century oil rush will be triggered when the Iraqi HCL is approved.

Oil is the engine of the Iraqi economy. All players in the Iraqi oil industry are keen to boost Iraqi oil production.

OiI companies are now lining up to get into the third biggest onshore oil field in the world with recovery costs of around $1-2 per barrel.

It is likely that Big Oil will sit on any contracts they get until the security situation improves. That leaves the door open for Petrel/Makman/Itochu. The Iraqi's are likely to give any work to their own people first. Tiny Petrel, unknown to the share tipsters and by the general public at large, intends to be an Iraqi oil independent.

Petrel has been continuously active in Iraq since 1999 and is now considered one of the most established players in the Iraqi oil industry.

Petrel has MASSIVE potential in Iraq.

bit about PET may well be accurate, but the great unknown is just how long it will be until the country is stable enough to allow relatively normal government to resume, with all that that implies ..... until that time, i cannot believe there will be any new wells spudded, let alone contracts awarded

Nearer we get to approval of HCL, the risks lessen.When HCL approved and PET awarded PSA contracts PET will be valued and re-rated pre-production based on "oil in the ground." Once you accept this concept & Iraq IS the place to be only then opens up mind to the true potential here.

See post 72.PET already in Iraq and been working there several years.Happily working in South Iraq,no probs whatsoever.PET been there throughout accepting risks."Well in" with Iraq Ministry of Oil (and Iran).Who is likely to benefit? PET Ready & waiting.Glory of PET able to begin work immediately,whereas,majors might leave it for a few years for security to settle.

I took the speculative risk investing 60.5p-70p.Added last thursday @ 91p.

PET an Iraq independent oil company.Minnow now........Huge,huge potential.

http://www.iraqdevelopmentprogram.org/idp/news/business/newolilaw.htm

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=190322&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=30145

katoema - 13 Aug'07 - 11:31 - 90431 of 90433


Pixi:
It is interesting browsing all of Itochu's different websites. There are details on Tullow and Dana for example, but I have found absolutely nothing on PET. Research has shown that they like also to have loss leaders, but cannot see PET in this catagory! K

ander - 13 Aug'07 - 11:31 - 90432 of 90433


Hi mclellan....pm for you on FYB.

bbd2 - 13 Aug'07 - 11:34 - 90433 of 90433


Iraq leader says he's optimistic about chances of unity
By The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times


BAGHDAD Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday expressed optimism about the chances of reconciliation within Iraq's fractured government, even as a political rival accused him of protecting militias with ties to Iran.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military announced that five soldiers were killed Saturday when a sniper shot one, then lured the others to a house rigged to explode. It was the single deadliest attack against American forces this month.

Four troops were wounded in the incident, which occurred southeast of Baghdad in Arab Jabour, a haven for Sunni insurgents.

Al-Maliki announced Sunday that a meeting of Iraq's leaders would begin this week, possibly today, in an attempt to resolve the growing political crisis. The results of the summit could have significant ramifications for the progress report that Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is to present to President Bush and Congress on Sept. 15. Al-Maliki's desire to create a cohesive government has been crippled by tensions among Shiite factions and by a sense of alienation among minority Sunnis, leaving several key pieces of legislation stalled.

In announcing the meeting, Al-Maliki said he hoped the six Cabinet members from the Iraqi Accordance Front the largest Sunni political bloc would return to the government. But he added that he would not hesitate to replace the politicians with other Sunnis, saying several tribal sheiks had approached him about filling the seats.

It remained uncertain, however, whether Sunni leaders would heed the call for negotiations. Adnan Dulaimi of the Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni political bloc in parliament, appealed to neighboring Arab countries Sunday for help in defeating what he called Iranian-supported Shiite violence against Sunnis.

Seventeen of al-Maliki's 37 Cabinet ministers have abandoned the government in recent weeks, many claiming the Shiite prime minister has turned a blind eye to torture, assassinations and execution-style slayings by Shiite extremists. Much of the violence has been blamed on Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Al Mahdi militia operating from the impoverished Sadr City.

President Bush ordered an increase in troop levels earlier this year, bringing the total U.S. deployment to near 160,000, in an attempt to quell both insurgents and sectarian extremists so al-Maliki could firm up the fragile ethnic and religious coalition that make up his government. Coalition forces on Sunday also raided suspected al-Qaida in Iraq hide-outs in western Baghdad, Samarra, Mosul and Tikrit, arresting 30 suspected militants, including two accused of weapons trafficking for the group, the military reported.

Mortars also landed on a northern neighborhood of the capital Sunday evening, killing four Iraqis. An Iraqi soldier was gunned down outside of his home in Babel, and an Interior Ministry source reported that 17 bullet-riddled male bodies were found during the day dumped around Baghdad.

Cynic,ongoing review of fantasy portfolio 'had' you bought! Based on mm bid @ 93p this morning on paper profits 427.40 net. Wait 'til PET trading 1+

lex1000 - 09 Aug 2007 01:21 - 70 of 78
6 Aug 2007 fantasy portfolio

10k bought @ 87.6p total 8,860.10 gross

Remember first posted moneyAM when sp 66p.If you are risk averse buy when HCL approved.What price sp then & what price followed by major news?

mclellan - 13 Aug'07 - 11:56 - 90438 of 90441


Someone mentioned the Pet/Makman/Itochu split.
I don't think we know what the proportion is.

"The arrangement is subject to the approval of the Iraqi Ministry of Oil. Petrel and Makman will form a new company for the purposes, in which each party will have a 50% share."


The cooperation agreement between Petrel and ITOCHU will initially cover work on the Merjan oil field. ITOCHU will also have a first look at future Petrel projects in the Iraqi oil and gas upstream sector. ITOCHU will contribute towards Petrel's historic costs in the Iraqi oil and gas sector and will cover a fixed share of the costs of the current study.



Dipbob - 13 Aug'07 - 12:00 - 90439 of 90441


McLellan,

You are quite right.

We dont know what the splits are other than:-

Subba Luhais = Pet/Makman (JV 50%)
Merjan = Pet/Itochu (Historic Costs)

Cant help but think wonder if there is a project pending where all 3 work together (H) ?

mclellan - 13 Aug'07 - 12:07 - 90440 of 90441


(H) sounds a possibility

Simon K - 13 Aug'07 - 12:07 - 90441 of 90441


Yes - that is pretty well what we know about the Itochu in the context of their general co-operation agreement with PET. It is referred to as "considerable support" by DH.


Makman is generally referred to as a joint Venture with an Iraqi Contracting Group, which covers the Subba & Luhais oil field development services contract. Makman are providing security, local transport as well as construction and engineering support. We are told that Petrel and Makman will form a new company for the purposes of the Joint Venture in which each party will have a 50% share. Under the Agreement, Makman will provide a Bank Guarantee for the 5% Performance Bond, and a further Bank Guarantee to enable the Iraqi Ministry of Oil's project company to issue a 10% advance payment to finance the project.

On line quotes: Bid 93p max-60k v Offer 95p max-5k

Simon K - 13 Aug'07 - 12:43 - 90453 of 90453


mixitup - re the discusion on PET / Makman / Itochu, if you are out there, I recall your post back in February - referred to as your longest post to date and your hope that it is not a load of bollocks - quote un quote. And no it isn't!. It is of interest, given the calculations, at the time, based of course on what we knew at the time.

mixitup12 - Tue, 20 Feb 07 :
.......If PET just receive the Merjan block as a PSA, then talking figures of 750 million barrels of oil on Merjan. Presuming that the PSA is awarded at 20%. Which divided by 3(Itochu and Makman included), that would give them 6.67%. Presume that the field lasts for 30 years, that is 25 million barrels per annum. 6.67% of 25 is 1,667500 barrels per annum. Multiply by $60 per barrel, gives about $100 million per annum or ?50 in sterling. With a P/E of 15, that would value the company at ?750 million or roughly ?10 per share. I haven't included cost of extraction of $1 per barrel. That is what I think is the minimum bottom line of where the share could go this year. It probably won't pan out like that. Just think if they get the 15 billion barreel field, what the sp could get to. Forget Cairn, forget White Nile, this is PET in Iraq.

Frankfurt offer creeping up.PET touching 100p a share on German Stock Exchange.

Frankfurt
IE0001340177 1,47
18:55:12
13.08.2007

18:55:12 1,47 300
18:18:08 1,47 1.400
17:54:39 1,46 5.000
17:52:59 1,44 5.000


Stuttgart
IE0001340177 1,46
18:09:27
13.08.2007

18:09:27 1,46 1.500
17:57:47 1,46 225

porker - 13 Aug'07 - 20:45 - 90502 of 90503


I could be wrong but I intend to buy alot more as finances allow. I see this as one of the biggest gambles of my life. A possible upside of 15x from here in the next year.

Simon K - 13 Aug'07 - 20:50 - 90503 of 90503


Fantastic opportunity porker, what started out as a calculated risk is becoming an increasingly sound proposition. A good number of informed posters here. For me, the most exciting share I have come across in my 20 years of stockbroking and, right now,the world, it seems, is only just starting to recognise what PET is all about.

Hatto - 13 Aug'07 - 22:59 - 90512 of 90513


Good evening everone from a wet & extremely windy Blackpool.

I'm staying in a very pleasant B&B with my elderly disabled friend. It's not how he remembered it.....Its a real dump.

We are here for 4 days....not sure that we will last the course.

A good day for PET, although I cannot for the life of me see anything to justify the MM's knocking the BID from 92p to 91p late on.

There was fairly substantial buying above the 92p level throughout the day.

Perhaps they were just playing it safe or maybe trying to shake a few holders out.

I'd expect the SP to continue North tomorrow & maybe even test 100p (again) later on this week.

The AGM is only 8 trading days away & I would expect PIs to be buying in expectation/anticipation of a positive statement from the PET board on that day.

Hatto - 13 Aug'07 - 23:01 - 90513 of 90513


Just a reminder here was last years statement that came out pre AGM.

Petrel Resources AGM Statement


RNS Number:7654G
Petrel Resources PLC
26 July 2006


Petrel Resources plc


Highlights of statement made by David Horgan, Managing Director Petrel
Resources, at the AGM Wednesday 26th July 2006


We remain focused on our long-standing objective of building an Iraq-centred oil
and gas independent.


The Subba & Luhais project is on track. So far there have been no insuperable
security problems. Suppliers continue to give strong support. Staff morale and
commitment are excellent. International groups are interested in partnering
with Petrel.


Rising tensions in the Middle East have created problems - but they are
difficulties we prepared for and are better positioned for than are other
western companies. We expected recent events and anticipate further challenges.


The commitment of industry players to Iraqi oil development has been tested.
Most have folded. We continue to expand and deepen our involvement. What
others see as difficulty, we see as opportunity.


Events have driven the oil price to historic highs - increasing the potential
value of our investment."


Iraqi oil field development contract

Petrel's priority is the $197 million Subba & Luhais oil field development
services contract in southern Iraq. This is the biggest contract awarded by the
Iraqi Ministry of Oil since 2003.


The project is on track and on budget:

1. Engineering Design is underway - 75% of the Basic Design Package is complete
- we expect a final review in late August, triggering a second milestone
payment.

2. Our design focus is now switching to technical data for major equipment
orders. We are finalising a key order representing about 20% of the
material supply budget.

3. We will shortly survey field and pipeline routes. This will enable us to
finalise steel pipe quantities and secure payment for an additional 20% of
the materials supply budget.

4. The Joint Venture with our Iraqi partner is running well: all bonds are in
place. We have agreed processing site layouts.

5. We have established excellent relations with the Trade Bank of Iraq. Funds
drawdown has started. TBI confirmed they will issue Letters of Credit -
subject to finalising terms. This augurs well for future business.


Iraqi oil exploration

Petrel signed a Technical Cooperation Agreement on the Merjan oil field, in
central Iraq, with the Ministry of Oil in October 2005. The Merjan oil field
was discovered in 1983, but has not yet been brought into production because of
extraneous circumstances, including OPEC ceilings.


The work programme formally kicked-off in May 2006. Petrel has now received the
data package and our technical staff and contractors have processed the seismic
data. It is now being reinterpreted. We hope to complete the study by end
year.


Hydrocarbon Law review

A fully sovereign government has taken office following successful elections
with a high participation rate. A priority is to review the Hydrocarbon Law,
establishing the basis for foreign participation in Iraqi oil & gas. Policy for
downstream investment has been agreed, subject to parliamentary approval. The
Iraqi Minister has stated his desire to establish a legal framework for upstream
investments by end 2006.


Petrel is well placed to seize the opportunities which will open up.

superpete - 13 Aug'07 - 23:35 - 90514 of 90517 edit


Heading north.Time to fill yer boots.imo

jecs - 14 Aug'07 - 00:11 - 90515 of 90517


Looks like the MOI is prepared to get things moving as soon as the HCL is ratified. (Some of the translation is rather funny / or perhaps appropriate)

From alsabaah today:

The first political : to identify priorities for the development of the fields after ratification of the Law of Oil

Baghdad morning
The Ministry of Oil priority in the development of oilfields through investment after the law of oil and gas by the Iraqi Parliament with international companies intend to submit their offers to invest portions of the field after the ratification of the insane law.

An official source at the Oil Ministry told (morning) : The ministry controls identified a number of priorities for the development of oil fields in various parts of the country through investment after the law oil and gas fields but it is hoped that the development through investment and the importance placed by perceived as a madman, Ahdab The West Qurna well as a number of other oil fields in the southern region and the Middle Euphrates regions.
He added : that the ministry is now waiting for approval of oil and gas law by Parliament in order to raise the process of developing these fields for investment by international companies adopted, which contributed to increasing the production capacity of crude oil from Iraq.
The source said that American and French companies have agreed to make presentations to invest parts of the field crazy especially since the two companies have work in this field during the former regime. He said the American company has a memorandum of understanding with the Ministry of Oil to provide oil studies and the training of Iraqi Cadres not conclude reduce this moment any contract with the Oil Ministry to develop the fields.
It is noteworthy that the Oil Ministry is waiting for approval of oil and gas law before Parliament to enable it to the announcement of oil fields which it is hoped that the evolution of oil companies to develop the oil industry in the country and increase the volume of oil exports to world markets and that the ministry had stressed the need to reconsider the all contracts with international companies before April 9, 2003, examination, in accordance with the interests of the Iraqi people.

Source - Google translation of :
http://www.alsabaah.com/paper.php?source=akbar&mlf=interpage&sid=47455

Up just a little bit - 14 Aug'07 - 00:50 - 90516 of 90517


jecs - 14 Aug'07 - 00:11 - 90515 of 90515
*************************************************
Jecs,
I am getting more convinced that the negotiations have already been done on deals for the fields that have been talked about recently on here.
Exciting couple of weeks ahead prior to AGM.


Up just a little bit - 14 Aug'07 - 06:33 - 90517 of 90517


Good morning all!!!
What are the odds that Mr 25k buys within first 5 mins??

UK market after stock much of the day yesterday. Bid max limits at times 50k-75k.

GSE opens positive.Zero trades. Approx Bid 95.9p v Offer 99.3p.These may change.

Frankfurt
1,42
1,47

Berlin-Bremen
1,40
1,46

Stuttgart
1,42
1,47

Mchen
1,42
1,47

Open 91p-95p compared to GSE 95.9p-99.3p

melfaraj - 14 Aug'07 - 08:56 - 4644 of 4654

pet

last i lookde there were 10 trades executed. 2 unkown, one sell and the rest buy trades. volume of buy 37357, vol of sells 5077. you might say this speaks volume of the stance of the stock

there seem no stopping to this stock hitting its 100p target and going beyond.

note the buildup of volume mass lately.
note the rising indicators, the macd simple appear to have developed a shark like mouth ready to gobble all.
note the near 100% bullish intrady performance of yesterday and 100% intraday bullish performance of this morning! no back steps, just rises!!


Link to text and charts

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=13457053&from=4644

Cynic,PET on the move 95p-98p.Remember this is in your fantasy portfolio.Possibly one of the best investments around........add in the words of another poster 'in 20 years of stockbroking.'