A thread for all those who wish to discuss GOLD - the investment of and related discussions that can effect GOLD as an investment or simply how to invest in it. All welcome from other websites.

Mabel - agree.

Co-op first. Tesco/sainsburys next? Why would anyone bank with a supermarket chain?

Are the supermarket banks wobbly?

I wouldn't trust them. It's another accident waiting to happen Max. Get your money & all your shopping data/habbits. Loan out your money & then the defaults start pouring in. Who is going to bail them out so customers don't lose everything?

Not sure why you think Supermarket "Banks" are another accident waiting to happen - their lending practices aren't as risque, their interest rates not as competitive from what I can see. They're also less prone to the kind of dubious activities that most banks engaged in - why? Because they can't afford the reputational damage to their main business,namely the sale of groceries.

They simply wont get into the position where they need a bailout is my view...

So what happened to the co-op then - just for clarity's sake?

I think the perception may well be that 'supermarket' banks are completely clear but it is not the case. Supermarket are capitalising on their brand strength and the publics general mistrust of the banking brands. However, once you look behind the branding you will more than likely find a banking institution behind it whether on a jv basis or as processor. On the surface the supermarket bank looks as though it's free from toxicity but it is only as good as the clearer and all institutions are connected in some way to a third party. If a default occurs with a third party it ripples though the whole sector. In 2008 Tesco purchased RBS's 50% stake in Tesco Bank for £950m, it was sold as a buyout for public consumption but in reality it was a bailout for Tesco Bank.

Co-op is hardly a Sainsbury or Tesco now is it Squirrel. And it's the CO-OP PIBS holders that are suffering - similar to RBS/Lloyds shareholders. Depositors being safeguarded.

I expect, but haven't followed the situation closely that other parts of The CO-op will be bailing out the bank side. Not sure why they've got into the trouble they have because I neither invest in the CO-Op nor use any of their services.

Sainsbury, or Tesco banking is a different kettle of fish as they have serious reputational damage to avoid - the Co-op , imo, is a pile of shite..

"In 2008 Tesco purchased RBS's 50% stake in Tesco Bank for £950m, it was sold as a buyout for public consumption but in reality it was a bailout for Tesco Bank."

Looks like a buyout of the other 50% shareholder to me, namely RBS - how do you get to "bailout" for Tesco Bank out of interest Yik?

Re banks in trouble (Biiii-iiig Banks)

Posted comment re several....inc...Barclays ???
- across on Silver

Squirrell
- not looked up Becks big disclosure
- just assumed it was..... re that given in the article immediately before ...your dissapointed no update query

(post no 62.....interesting imo - especially taking into account...the subsequent..event)

Gaz - excellent content as usual. Read silver thread.

Yik - ty for info re tesco. Clearing houses being the key. I like to know which clearing/transaction houses are being used for which front facing "shop". Having worked in a bank after I finished my schooling. Highly boring it all was. Now - I'd probably die of shock not boredom. In those days we'd get bags of 25k cash. Today I think those bags contain much more paper............thanks to inflation.

On a supermarket only basis I'd agree that Sainsburys leaves ttroubled tesco behind who have had to pull out of the USA & cr8ppy co-op who have just stung a group of pensioners.

I like Waitrose best for it's non-gm approach.

I won't mention any others but a certain household name may be scooped by a certain gulf state.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/17/get-back-into-beaten-down-mining-stocks-j-p-morgan/?source=email_rt_mc_body

Get in.

With what?

Many have lost their shirts on the way down I suspect.
And those that haven't are very wary of buying for one reason or another.

That's before you consider many have decided that they're never investing in AIM again due to the shenanigans of numerous BOD's.

MML looks interesting, as does HGM and CEY (political risk huge here)
As to smaller goldies, too risky, especially if they need any financing. Same for silver companies. Go for producers, preferably those not needing to raise cash in any form.

Amazing to see all of you new guys who only joined recently yet are obviously prolific posters and seem to be from the more 'sane selection of the darker side'! ;o) Welcome all.
I'm not sure that I agree with JPM in your post #82. No doubt they have done some research to support their stance, but I wonder if they are also house broker to any of the big guys? Assuming QE is going to be phased out and economies will then start to fight the inflation battle, coupled with global downturn in commodity buying and political instability in certain areas where some of the metals & minerals come from, most analysts seem to be advising that investors now turn their attention to the 'cyclicals' as a better investment rather than blue chip defensives (Utilities, telecoms etc) or higher risk mining & exploration. I know you guys follow gold & silver quite closely, but although there isn't a direct correlation to the gold price and the mining stocks, margins for the miners seem to be wafer thin if the price of gold doesn't hold avove $1400/oz. Do you also follow platinum? Again a high risk play in mines which are very prone to accidents, strikes and political instability. All just my opinion, but of course it depends on your appetite for risk!

Printing won't ever stop. It's just rhetoric by bb.

Printing stops the whole world will go in to a tailspin straight into the abyss.

BoE O'Neil has been brought in to get the printing presses moving even faster.

Accumulation is the name of the game.

The BIG question is how high will equities go?

Get in with what?

Careful research is just about the best thing to do.

Resource rich - well medium rich.
Firm infrastructure in place.
Politically stable.
Solvent.

Feel free to add to that list.

"Get in with what?"

erm you said in your post, numbered 82, get-back-into-beaten-down-mining-stocks-j-p-morgan/?source=email_rt_mc_body.....

To which I queried.

With what...

Clearly most have been burned by their PM investments and will have no money to get in with. Those that do have spare cash, a minority, will still be scarred and very wary of investing in any AIM miners. Especially given the poor macroeconomic picture for metals in general, and, seemingly, PM's in particular.

Namely falling gold/silver price, rising costs of inputs,and, equally importantly, rapidly changing political risk.An example of the latter - the court case in Egypt, and the chatter that the Philippine govt wants to change the way it raises tax on PM producers!

Why put in any new money?

I suspect you've miscontrued my initial reply to post 82.

I'd certainly be adding on a careful basis(eg MML,HGM,less so CEY) but I most definitely wouldn't invest in any Aim company with little/no production, or needing to raise cash.

The Seda has been an utter disaster for AGQ, rather disappointingly. But was predictable as any of us RRR / RGM shareholders said at the time. :)

Omce - I know little of some of the miners you mention. I have quite an indepth knowledge of AGQ. Difficulty with seda but funding talks are taking place & a large shareholder such as Eric Sprott gives more power to the company. AGQ outright own all the land & property aswell as proven 120m ozs silver, not to mention zinc.

The Eqypt case (CEY) I think - correct me if I'm wrong could be interesting as ties with Syria are now broken so whilst an extremely dodgy time it could do well in the longer term. I don't hold CEY (yet).

It will be bigger boys that buy some of AIM & I don't believe it serves the city of London or its reputation at all for David Cameron & his mate Michael over at Icap to destroy AIM - just so he can have those listings on his ISDX which he effectively stole (PMK). He will be outed for sure - and Cameron will go down in history as one of the most financially destructive PMs the UK has had in modern times. His associations have already let him down badly.

Not everyone in the public are stupid or been hoodwinked.

Today we see a report that finally states bankers that failed their customers, shareholders & the market should be jailed. How long before CEOs like Michael at Icapp come under that same ethos.

Desperation reigns.

Hold PMs & miners with proven resources. Heck - I'll dig the stuff out of the ground myself & broker my own deals. Lose I will not do.

What's Michael Spencer at Icap been doing to destroy AIM?

"Today we see a report that finally states bankers that failed their customers, shareholders & the market should be jailed. How long before CEOs like Michael at Icapp come under that same ethos."

You do realise that ICAP, like other IDB's , is a different business to banks right? It's the banks that are Icap's customers, not the general public.

HarryCat

re
"most analysts seem to be advising that investors now turn their attention to the 'cyclicals' as a better investment rather than blue chip"

IMO fwiw basis - unless you want to personally try
- the "post Lehman" experience .....in stocks & shares

I would give them all a miss on the old adage - sell in May ........., or in this case more possibly ....high tail it out of Dodge - and stay out....for a while.

DYOR but :- (here goes)

The first time in recent.... decades
- that total margin debt exceeded... 2.25 percent.... of G.D.P.
- came at the end of 1999, amid..... the technology stock ....bubble.
- Margin debt fell..... after that bubble.... burst,

but
- to rise again during the..... housing boom
- when anecdotal evidence said some investors were using their investments to secure loans that went for down payments on homes.

That boom in ...margin loans ...also....
.... ended badly......

In fact it seems whenever margin debt reaches 2.25% .....the stock market crashes

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/business/economy/shades-of-prerecession-borrowing.html


So are we around the red flag ....2.25%..... historical - crash warning level now ??

Apparently - Margin debt has now risen to about...... 2.4 percent..... of GDP

May not crash this week, or next week - but it seems "the writing is on the wall" by way of forewarning
(And - in rather - large letters - imo)

By way of a visual warning

- the GREY areas indicate when margin debt - exceeds 2-25%
- The chart after....the Grey areas
- represents the S & P......in the month that follows



By all means place your bet......but
- the bottom right chart

- is where we are......now.

See how it pans out shortly

But shortly afterwards - you may wish to review....those "most analysts" seem to be advising....
- and perhaps knock them off your reading list :o)
re
("most analysts .......seem to be advising that investors now turn their attention to the 'cyclicals' as a better investment rather than blue chip")

Often better to be out ....a month early......than a day or two late
(I think they are considering adding tha - to - The Cypriot...national anthem)

No advice given mind you - after all
- only qualifications I hold are - a CSE II in woodwork, a 25 metre swimming badge

Once36
- would your mining shares get hit in the carnage and crossfire - should the previous post pan out
(just a thought fwiw)