Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

my own totally amateurish view is that $ is unlikely to strengthen beyond 19500, with a possible or even probable medium/long term weakness as high as 20700.

for the moment i shall hold off, but will certainly short once 19500 is approached.

Evening.
Blimey, what an 'orrible couple of weeks and it's still not over.
Just got over one problem last week and then ended up flat
on me back all this week with the worst lurgy I've ever had.

Must be this Man Flu I keep reading about on these boards.
You women are dead lucky that you never get this. ;-)

I kid you not. I've got an immune system, or so they tell me,
that keeps firing up into overdrive. When it's got nowt to do
it usually does it's best to kill me off. Bugs? They don't usually
have a ghost of a chance. The first whiff of trouble and it goes
into annihilation mode. I haven't had a cold/ flu/ virus, whatever,
thats managed to last more than 12 hours in the last 7 years.
So gawd knows what this is.

So currently writing this on a laptop in bed, now that my head's
at last starting to feel screwed on and connected again.
At least I seemed to avoid last weeks whipsawing. I couldn't
have cared less what was happening by about Wednesday, so
I just let my positions run and they all ended up basically where
they started the week. (Makes you wonder whether all this tinkering
is worth the effort).

Miss Mel is currently chewing her fingernails down until she meets the
CEO, which is now pencilled in for this coming Wednesday.
So I've managed to scrape the following together for her, to keep her
up to date on the situation. The rest of it is down to her now.

I've not bothered with Oil. Everyone knows it's trading between $50 and
$55 and will break one way or the other when sentiment gathers a head
of steam according to the newsflow.

And I thought I'd had it rough Mel!

Good luck to your daughter on Wednesday but it doesn't sound as though she needs it to me :-)

Cheers meggers ;)
Probably potty seeing as I'm not around tomorrow, but short again.
Couldn't resist 1.9613

Really just sticking with the channel for now, and the longer term thingies.
1.95ish would be nice.

Oh and welcome to the thread, Cynic.

Hi, Harlosh. There's always someone worse off than you.
I just remember that when I feel down, and straight away
I feel better. :-))

Managed to watch a bit of TV this morning whilst munching
a bit of toast washed down with hot, honeyed coffee. (luvverly)

Bloomers had a 30min TA slot, as opposed to the usual 4 mins
of which 3mins is normally taken up by an airhead presenter
who fancys they know everything.
So this time we had 2 TA guys and lo and behold they used
the same charts as me, covering Indices/ Bonds/ Forex/ Oil/ Gold,
out of which they built a picture correlating the moves in different
asset classes.
I always thought this is what folk really do, rather than these half-arsed
soundbites we usually get spoonfed.
For anyone who didn't see it, just read my last round-up post and
you'll get the gist of what they said.
(Mel blows on fingernails and rubs them ostentatiously on his lapels) :-))

Over on CNBC we had Tom Hobson, and, coincidently, he bought along a
chart of the 10yr Bund showing what I was talking about this weekend.
(Re-read the post if you don't know what I mean.)

Upshot of it all, is that I seem to be in tune (worrying, that), with other folk,
who are looking for higher Bond Yields, flat US interest rates for the first
six months followed by rising US interest rates.
Cable is seen as maybe hitting 2.00 to 2.04, but then selling off rapidly.
They don't see the $ breaking the 20yr support I've been showing.

Remember all the above is just views. Not before the event crystal ball
facts.

I always said you were clever Mel :-))

Yeah, right! That's why I'm lolling on a South Sea island,
being fed peeled grapes by dusky maidens, whilst my crew
scrub the decking on my new yacht, Harlosh. :-))

I do find, however, the more hours and work I put into
something, the luckier I seem to get. ;-)

Dammit. Think I've missed the trade I'd planned over the weekend
by being too greedy.

Was looking for a short Bund position. Didn't take either of the 2
intraday bounce opportunities as I thought they'ld bounce higher.

Will probably have to wait until Ben Bernanke spreads his spin at
1915hrs on Wednesday now in case I've got it wrong.

I think this is a classic case of throwing away the bird in the hand,
and then watching the 2 in the bush flying merrily away. :-(

You always were a caution, Mels ;)

You're right, Chocco, perhaps I do need to add a little more
risk to the pot. I don't get many losing trades, but it does cost
me a lot of missed winning positions. :-(

Never mind, at least I'm doing it the right way round and winning
whilst learning, instead of blowing Pots away like 90% of folk seem
to do from what I read. :-)

Mel
You have certainly added some really valuable contributions to this thread - just as you did on the index thread - I for one am very grateful.

I must admit that your most recent posts gave me that extra bit of confidence to go long cable yesterday @ 560 and 580 - which are still open. Needed some winning positions after a very ropey start to 2007.

Off to do some day jobbie stuff and leaving the positions with stops at the opening levels. The 4 hour and 1 hour MACDs now look as if they are confirming nicely for good points.

Hope choccie closed her shorts because I think we are on our way back up towards that 50p $ mark.

mg (member of the Melnibone fan club)

PS - I do wish you would take a few more risks - IMHO losses are an integral part of the learning process - but, thereagain, we all have to assess our own personal comfort levels when it comes to risk.

Thanks for the comments, guys. I've never had a problem with
constructive criticism.
I've got trading the larger swings ok now, and am slowly working
my way in to successfully trading the intermediate swings.
Slowly, slowly catchee monkey. :-)
The operative word for me is 'successfully'.

See you've re-opened Longbridge, MG. ;-)

Link to MG's new business venture

Oh he's a very busy boy, Mels.

http://mgforex.com/

Meggers is the one in the middle :o)

Anyway, meggers - too right I did.
My stop didn't get hit during the day so I closed in disgust at 1.9585 and had a good scratch last night ;)

Still a short little bear from 1.9690 this morning.
But that can all change :)




Consumer confidence report shortly is expected to improve to 110 from 109.
And tomorrow fourth quarter GDP is forecast to jump to 3% versus 2%.
The market's poised to see if the FOMC acknowledges pressure from wages when it gives its statement on Wednesday, and the consensus is for the Fed to maintain its hawkish bias and comment on the improvements in economic fundamentals, particularly in housing and manufacturing.

manchester gets new super casino

i think harlosh and bakko will be happy :))

yeah right bos....just another place to get robbed blind :-(

and you'll no doubt refuse to come out with us when we go to it won't you Bos :-))

Yep - I'm a busy 'un - not just cars at Longbridge - I've even fixed Hull and Wolverhampton up with mini-Casinos (apparently) Z:)

On the Super-Casino front - Manchester was a Big Big surprise - there's gonna be a few people in Blackpool with a lot of egg (or is it ice cream) on their faces - even day-trippers to Skeggie, Scarborough, Torquay and Great Yarmouth get something to do after their donkey rides. Anyone want a big-dipper - going cheap?

As for cable - I'm still in there - not as clever as choccie the shorting genius - but I have to have some limitations !!!

mg (TF)

Hells bells Choccy - that's an awful lot of lines for one chart ;-)

I got stopped out of my long position +12 - was up about +70 at one point. I tend to set a fairly tight trailing stop loss so I get to breakeven asap as I never know when I'm going to get a chance to look in. Did the business this morning.

Back in again long now from 631 - not the cleverest of entries but looking for the couple of hundred pointers these days so in the overall scheme of things it's not too bad.

I'm not sure that it's a long again yet, Seymour.