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Pursuit Dynamics - A British success story in the making? (PDX)     

Andy - 31 Aug 2003 11:58

Prlhead8.GIF

Pursuit Dynamics plc is a UK based research and development company, which was founded in 2000 to develop and commercialise a revolutionary pumping and propulsion technology. Pursuit Dynamics (symbol: PDX) was listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange in May 2001.

pdxsonic.JPG

PDX 25 Sonic.

The PDX Technology is a steam-based system that has applications in both pumping and marine propulsion. It is cheap to manufacture, extremely robust, contains no moving parts and is virtually impossible to block. Pursuit Dynamics owns 100% of the Intellectual Property Rights that surround the PDX Technology.

pdx03.JPG

Pursuit Dynamics is now working towards the commercialisation of the technology it has developed.

chart.asp?symb=uk%3Apdx&compidx=aaaaa%3A



Corporate website : http://www.pursuitdynamics.com/


Pursuit are rumoured to be close to closing their first deals, which may be in the food processing industry.

Andy - 03 Oct 2005 10:23 - 724 of 1003

Oakapples142,

Yes, excellent news, but the lack of financial detail is perhaps holding PDX back now.

I still feel we need a major deal or order to really start to move northwards from here.

Having said that, it's encouraging that they have such interest in the USA pre launch, it bodes well IMHO.

Andy - 08 Oct 2005 15:39 - 725 of 1003


From Business weekly.


Pursuit Dynamics widens footprint in the US

Pursuit Dynamics has clinched a second US distributor for its innovative fluid processing PDX technology ahead of the official US launch, which will take place at the WorldWide Food Expo in Chicago.

The Royston-based firm has reached an agreement with Anderson & Dahlen, a full service process systems integrator which provides world-class engineering, design and equipment solutions to the food, dairy, pharmaceutical and chemical processing industries, amongst others.

A&D will also invest in a demonstration facility for the PDX Sonic at its 84,000 sq ft manufacturing plant in Minnesota.

Oakapples142 - 11 Oct 2005 10:14 - 726 of 1003


To-days good news more that makes up for the Additional Listing announcement - slowly and surely going north. CEO really sounds upbeat.

andrewbertram2003 - 23 Oct 2005 12:10 - 727 of 1003

some profit taking + mirroring the fall in ftse.....nice to see it recover a little. results between now ans xmas so what next?

Oakapples142 - 24 Oct 2005 15:40 - 728 of 1003


Bumper deals with US Navy and Royal Duchy Shell would be a very nice Christmas Bonus

andrewbertram2003 - 27 Oct 2005 12:55 - 729 of 1003

OAK....Don't forget Kidde and Nasa have been mentioned too!
I'm concerned accounts are premature and will knock the SP back until a full trading year is under their belt...views?

Oakapples142 - 27 Oct 2005 14:54 - 730 of 1003


To be honest Andrewbertram I had missed info about Kidde - where did you see that?. You will be aware that finances are never mentioned when contracts are announced. In all honesty I think that is the way I too would run things as price may be a matter of negotiation with the bigger players.

andrewbertram2003 - 02 Nov 2005 11:21 - 731 of 1003

Well...there you go...accounst out with 2.7m loss and bang goes the SP.
Now...we need 12 months of excellent contract building and will need to wait until next annuals for turn around in fortunes.

I just hope that the stock is not too abandoned in the meantime. However it does drop below 1.50 then I will regard is as a buy more opportunity!

Andy - 02 Nov 2005 11:29 - 732 of 1003

Andrew,

Yes well I expected a loss to be honest, afterall the company is in it's development stage, so it's par for the course.

The drop may have been overdone, we shall see, the market normally overreacts, then corrects once the news has been digested.

What PDX have to do, as you rightly say, is get some decent revenue generating contracts signed ASAP!

And I think they will have to start announcing the value of any wins to the market, not hide behind "commercial confidetiality" clauses!

Oakapples142 - 02 Nov 2005 15:03 - 733 of 1003

Hi Andy x 2 - I have rather been too sad to respond since results announced. I feel that it is not so much the 2.7m loss as the small amount of income announced following a few contracts. More contracts are no doubt nearing agreement and I am sure the CEO well realises that to increase investor confidence PDX must find a way of "talking turkey" - maybe we are still in for a happy Christmas unlike the aforementioned bird.

andrewbertram2003 - 03 Nov 2005 08:14 - 734 of 1003

Andy....it will be interesting to see if values will be mentioned as you say!
I think the current contracts are not worth big bucks but the fact that a re-order has been made shows confidence in the technology. I strongly feel this is just the beginning and the next 12 months will see deal after deal. The pennies will slowly build up. Perhaps this stock is 2 year view...?

Guys, don't loose site of the versatality of the this technology. PDX could end up with a rather broad sales base all out of the same product they know and have matured...nice! I'm sticking in for sure. I can't get out of my head a brokers tip of 4 a share. (not sure who and how they arrived at that!)

Andy - 06 Nov 2005 20:11 - 735 of 1003

From The Sunday times


Pursuit Dynamics

SIMON CAWKWELL, the stock-market trader known in market circles as Evil Knievil, is up to his usual tricks at Pursuit Dynamics. Cawkwell has sold 1m shares in the firm that he does not own in the belief that he can buy them back more cheaply in the future.

Pursuit Dynamics floated on the Alternative Investment Market in 2001. It hopes to find commercial applications for a technology that uses steam and supersonic shockwaves to pump, heat, mix and process liquids in a device that has no moving parts.

Trials with Coca-Cola and the suggestions that the pump could also be used to separate sand from oil have got investors excited. In fact Cawkwell was among those who profited as the share price soared from 20p in August 2002 to as high as 265p at the end of September. He owned 750,000 shares in the firm earlier this year.

But Cawkwell has turned bearish and fears that after four years Pursuit Dynamics has little to show for its efforts apart from combined losses of 7m. In the year to September 30, 2004, licence sales generated only 150,000 while operating expenses soared to 2.2m. Cawkwell fears that the company will run out of cash.

He is not the only one to be spooked. Since Septembers 265p high the shares have been in freefall, closing at 186 last week.

John Heathcote, Pursuit Dynamics chief executive and founder, insists that Cawkwell is mistaken. The business is on track and making serious progress, he said, and the racy rating just reflects the huge potential of the firms revolutionary pump.

Whoever is right, one thing is for certain: shareholders can expect a rollercoaster ride in the coming months.

Saintserf - 07 Nov 2005 01:28 - 736 of 1003

Hi guys. First time on this thread. Nice to read the posts. I'm afraid I'm going to be bearish, sorry. I've been trading shares for 2 years now. I'm sitting on a loss. I started with TAdpole technology and they rose 50% quickly. I sold bought back and they dropped 75% quickly. I then bought Superscape they rose a bit and then halved. I'm currently shorting PDX on the imaginary champion investor game. I don't care about ramping or de-ramping, I'm just trying to show a different voice and a warning to holders through my own experiences with similar companies. Here are my reasons for my position.

1 The chart is awful. I have read a book on charting and it is falling off a cliff, it may stop, but if it breaches 160 there is no support until 120. Can I suggest Alistair Blair's introduction to charting. I've learnt through painful experience, not to try and "catch a falling knive" i.e. guess that the price is going up again. You must go with the trend until it ends, because the chart shows what is actually happening to the share price in terms of buyers and sellers. It is the truthful picture, it does not allow for hope or potential or maybes, it reflects what's happening! I tried to buck it with TAD and Superscape and got burnt both times.

2 PDX sounds like they have a good idea, but so did Tadpole. There is a strong similarity. TAD had numerous RNS's last year with big US companies (Microsoft and others) but with no figures, the reason transpired that they were recieving very little or nothing. Unfortunately, big companies do not need to pay small ones, for the first year they normally ask for the technology free or pay a token fee as a trial, the little companies are in no position to refuse.

In TAD's case I thought I could see what others were missing because they hadn't researched the company as much as me. I was wrong! I'm afraid all that counts is the bottom line. Sooner or later a company's valuation corrects itself. Tad had to issue a profits warning with their results and dilute more shares through fund raising.

3 Valuation. eg. Pdx is valued at 90million. It lost 2.7mil, has net assets of 1.5 and cash of about 3. So by simple maths it should be worth 4.5mil plus "intangibles", ie. patents, the potential growth of product. But these are the hopeful bits, which may or may not occur and they are surely factored into the price already. In the best case scenaio providing it overturns the 2.7mil loss and manages to break even by next results (a big ask) there will still be a gap in valuation between 4.5mil and the value of the share price 90million.

That equals 85.5million, by that calculation PDX is at least 90% overvalued and the share price should be 15-20pence. TAD went from 27p to 3p in a year, so I should know through bitter experience. The signs are eerily similar. All that is holding PDX up is hope and perhaps the fear of bird flu?

In terms of working out valuation can I recommend Peter lynch's book "One up on Wall Street". He was a very, very successful fund manager who said that shares always end up at their correct valuation. He cited the example of Macdonalds, which fell 75% in one year for no other reason that it's PE was 60, and the sector PE was 15. Therefore, investors realised it was overvalued to the sector and sold it accordingly. PDX has no PE.

4 I'm not a fan of EVil Knievel' s style either. I read the Guardian.I shorted them on monday before his column on Friday. But, I will say this. Evil, unfortunately has a good track record. He shorted Sanctuary Group in the summer at 45 p and they're now at 4.5p. He also shorted Tadpole in the past.

5 If you have the ability to be objective amidst the hype and keep your head while all around are losing theirs you will make a fortune shorting shares. Unfortunately, evil has managed this.

I'm not trying to be patronizing. I just don't want you guys to get burnt. Thanks for being so patient, Iain

andrewbertram2003 - 07 Nov 2005 08:12 - 737 of 1003

Saint. Its all good comment. I'm digesting info.
What to do!!!!!

andrewbertram2003 - 07 Nov 2005 08:14 - 738 of 1003

just an added thought. PDX has one thing on its side and that is deal after deal after deal.....all adding up to major income in due course!...I think this stock is a 3 year to 5 year investment not a short term punt.

Saintserf - 07 Nov 2005 14:35 - 739 of 1003

I might be wrong. You would think that the compound effect of all these deals would add up to value "in due course" as you say, but they have to start being worth something. The problem you've got is that if one company gets it discounted then its hard to persuade the others to take it at full price, because no doubt they get to hear from phoneing other companies what it cost them. The only good thing about pdx is that someone bought 3. 16% last week. But this could just be a bad call.

Iain

Saintserf - 07 Nov 2005 14:42 - 740 of 1003

I've just put all my champion investor portfolio into pursuit dynamics. Its a bit risky, but unfortunately I feel it should go down. I've spoken to a friend who's beend doing shares for 15 years and he thinks its a pretty safe bet to go down unfortunately. I hope for your sake I'm wrong. ITs just that the chart is so bad. If you're interested in some short-term alternatives to buy, can I suggest GlaxoSmithKline, its chart has last week broken out of a 3 year bottom and has no resistance for a while, you might not make more than 10% in the short term, eg. 2 weeks to a month, but at least there's no spread and its safe. People like the small oil firm, aminex, but I'd wait until it stops going down.
Saint serf

Saintserf - 07 Nov 2005 14:51 - 741 of 1003

Andrew, you may be right about it being a long term investment, but in that case you can buy it back cheaper nearer the time, the problem is because its not got decent fundamentals, this type of share relies on momentum, sentiment to keep it going. I call them "spotlight" shares, TAD and sps were the same, there's nothing to hold them up when they fall, because they lack the stability of much institutuional holding. So, a lot of their shares are in the hands of private investors who trade much more frequently than institutions, hence increased volatility. If its good between 3 and 5 years, then wait till the price stops falling, and I don't mean one or two days of no change, I mean the long term downtrend to have stopped and a long term uptrend to replace it. Remember the illusion I've come to realise is that for a share to rise 20% it only has to drop 10% to cancel this out. So often when a share goes down you think you're still in profit, but you're not. If you buy pdx at 20p and then it goes to 1 you make 500% if you buy it at 2 and it goes to 20p then rebounds to 1 you're still down 50%.
Cheers, Saintserf

Andy - 07 Nov 2005 21:47 - 742 of 1003

saintserf,

So PDX should soon be back to 0 then?

I always check the chart, but news blows the chart out of the water, and EK has made the odd expensive howler in his time, eg Regus!

He made a lot of money long PDX, and is reaping it going down too, but PDX could announce a deal at any time, particularly of bird flu becomes a real danger, and their decontaminating firemist system is adopted by the government.

I would have thought it will consolidate around 160p, but the market is soft at the moment, so you never know.

andrewbertram2003 - 08 Nov 2005 12:37 - 743 of 1003

Well...should have taken my advice and sold out just before issue of accounts!!.
This stock will settle back now....the bottom ????

PDX will hit a rut before resuming an upward climb. It will be deal after deal and setady building of income to shift the current 3m loss into a 3m profit....phew!
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