The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Today is gonna be a long one fellow PET's! More sideways low volume trading with the MM's shaking that tree again.

i see from previous poster that 2 contrcts are being finalised so maybe only pet will win 1 but hopefully 2.

Morning all,
good post Tokyo,i can`t see that there are any other bidders,if there were why did`nt he name them,he named PET!.it is of no advantage or disadvantage to name the others,if they exist,think about it.
Dexter
PS, thanks for your kind words of comfort!!!

Hey Graeme - it was reported before that everasia (Turkish) & Dome (Arabic) were Petrels competitors, if so I think under the current political situation Petrel have the strongest chance of winning both tenders. Remember we know for a fact that Petrel are there

Tokyo

hopefully we will get some conclusion over the weekend to allow a nice mark up next Monday!!

Tokyo

Why the confidence (as opposed to hope) that Petrel will win one or both contracts? Surely their 'tininess' counts against them. I think it is clear from earlier posts that they are spreading any risk with partners. Are partners bidding with them to give added clout? What do we know about the competition? I suspect I am basically looking for comfort; with a nagging doubt that if neither contract is won it may be because of lack of confidence in dealing with a minnow. I do accept that an Irish company should be an acceptable front for dealing with a western consortium.

Eric

Eric - If you are looking for confidence, just do a bit of research!!, this is not a critism, you'll understand when you do it.
The competitors were Dome (UAE) & Everasia (Turkey), try searching their websites there is nothing about the tenders on there, the only company to release any sort of positive news is PET. Now this does not mean that PET have 100% got the contracts, but it is looking a lot stronger for PET than the others, this has been a tendering process so other outside companies are not in the running, i.e. the big boys, The only way the big boys (BP, Shell, etc) are getting in on this one would be by buying up the shares or a merger, again very good for us as the SP will rocket even further. Look back through this BB, you'll see that dexter and myself have been posting things for a while there is a lot of old news and links on here.

Tokyo

Back to the charting thing......

Charting is generally a valuable tool when looking at company's price movements over a much longer period of time, typically 18 months to 3 years. By using this info you can spot trends developing/about to develop. In PET's case the charts pointed to a screaming buy around late Apr/early May.

After mid Sept the whole charting situation got thrown out the window as other (much more fundamental) factors came into play. This was when all the MM/day trader funny business started to rear its ugly head. But hey, I'm not complaining, my av price is 34p.

Chin up Dexter, there's a lot of us twats about!!!

i dont think the iraqi oil ministers will say to pet thanks for all your help over the past 9 years goodbye you can go home now, its the terms of the contract/s that are going to be scrutinised

Tokyo: Thanks your post on the Consultant share options. The only other point I wish to make on this is that as the Consultants are not Director's of the company there is no requirement for them to post any sale of the shares either.

Re Eric's post: I think it is very unlikely that PET will get both contract's because of their size and resources etc. On the other hand there may be other forces at work in regard to tie-up's JV's etc. On the latter you do not normally post that you are thinking of a JV until it is tied up. So IMO I think there is a good chance of a deal of some sort...all the rest is and can only be 'speculation'.

Finally a thanks for all the links you have provided with Dexter...very useful.

John

Johngtudor, We try our best,thanks.
Tokyo,what are the web addresses for Dome and Everasia ?, i can`t find them anywhere,
cheers,
Dexter

I heard about this company D1oils plc on the radio last night,they are listing on AIM end of october i think,might be worth noting in light of high oil prices etc,


IEA calls for tariffs to be dropped on biofuels (published on 14-May-2004)

The International Energy Agency has called for tariffs to be dropped on biofuels worldwide. It says that this would encourage their use, reduce the demand for conventional fuels and be an environmental and economic benefit to many countries.


Current tariffs are a significant barrier to trade, the report says.

On the benefits of biofuels, the report states: "Increasing the use of biofuels can improve energy security, reduce greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions, improve vehicle performance, enhance rural economic development and, under the right circumstances, protect ecosystems and soils. Because these benefits are difficult to quantify, the market price of biofuels does not adequately reflect them. This disadvantages biofuels relative to petroleum fuels."

Speaking at the launch of Biofuels for transport: An international perspective, a publication looking at trends in biofuel production, Claude Manil, Executive Director of the IEA said: "In the absence of strong government policies, we project that the worldwide use of oil in transport will nearly double between 2000 and 2030, leading to a similar increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Biofuels, such as ethanol, biodiesel and other fuels derived from biomass could help change this picture, by offering an important low-greenhouse-gas alternative to petroleum over this time frame."

The report claims that biodiesel and ethanol could displace up to 5% of motor gasoline fuel by 2010 if current policies are fully implemented. If production is concentrated on low-cost sugar cane to ethanol processes, up to 10% of world gasoline use by 2020 could be displaced and up to 50% by 2050, the report claims.

It highlights the fact that countries such as Brazil and India already produce relatively low-cost bio-ethanol from sugar cane, and could become net exporters over the next two decades, making the need for import tariff reduction more pressing. At present only Japan and New Zealand have no import duty on ethanol.

Biofuel producers Greenergy welcomed the call for import reductions saying it would be good for business.

Marcus Quinn, Managing Director of D1Oils plc, said he also agreed with the idea of lowering the tariffs. He told edie this would especially benefit Europe as it focuses on using rapeseed as a principal feedstock.

"The economics of using rapeseed don't add up. It's only viable through the use of subsidy," he said, adding that the continent would have to rely on imports to meet demand.

Mr Quinn said that current land use in Europe for crops such as rapeseed are at capacity and expected to see rapeseed prices increase by 30 - 40% over the next few years. This would make biodiesel production from rapeseed highly unproductive.

Instead, his company has been using a range of energy crops with far higher yields, such as the Jatropha tree. This has a high oil yield, is extremely durable, has a long production life and can be grown even on poor stony soils.

D1 is growing this, and other high yield plants, at various points around the world, for use within those locations, but mainly for export to Europe, the US and Japan. Mr Quinn said the company's long term plan was to use non-prime land and irrigate through the use of waste water for its plantations.

Whether the future is rapeseed or Jatropha, the outlook for biofuels in general looks bright. Europe currently has a target of raising biofuel use to 5.75% of motor fuel consumption by 2010, and although there is no direct legislation in the US, the IEA report says the direct subsidies will drive sales of bio-ethanol.

By David Hopkins

Email this story to a friend Link to this story Print this story

Source: edie newsroom

Yacoub Oweis

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Scores of Iraqi oil workers have been killed or maimed since last year's invasion after they defied death threats and remained in their posts, Oil Minister Thamir al-Ghadhban says.

"Personal threats are regularly made against us and many people have been lost, but we will not raise the white flag. We are raising output and fixing every pipeline that is blown up," Ghadhban told a news conference on Thursday.

Among those killed were truck drivers distributing refined products and pipeline security guards. Several guards at the Basra refinery had their legs amputated earlier this month when rockets fell near their post, the minister said.

"I don't think that there is an oil industry in the world that faces so much difficulty. Our headquarters alone have had several mortar rounds a day fall on it over the past two months," said Ghadhban, a geologist who started working for the ministry more than 30 years ago.

Illustrating the reach of the attacks, Ghadhban said the 110,000 barrel per day (bpd) Dora refinery on the edge of Baghdad sometimes does not receive a drop of crude oil because the three pipelines feeding it from the east, north and south are blown up.

"We found 70 holes dug by thieves in one products pipeline in the south the other day," he said.

DISRUPTIONS

The identity of the attackers remain vague and they have rarely been caught. Security officials say they include former Baath party members and foreign zealots.

The attacks have concentrated in Sunni Muslim areas, such as the northern city of Mosul, and the mixed Latifiya region south of Baghdad, where storage depots are located.

Jordanian militant Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi has threatened to attack foreign trucks carrying gasoline imports from the north.

The ministry halted operations temporarily in the Mosul storage centre after several truck drivers were killed or abducted, oil officials said.

The attacks have disrupted refinery operations and lack of security hampered distribution. Iraq, home to one of the world's largest oil reserves, used to export refined products before the 2003 Iraq war.

It now imports up to half its 20,000 litre a day gasoline requirement, Ghadhban said, adding it uses imports to cover 20 million litres a day of gas oil consumption, 8,000 litres a day of kerosene and 5,000 tonnes a day of liquefied petroleum gas.

The imports cost Iraq $200 million (109 million pounds) a month with product coming by truck from Turkey, Iran, Jordan and Syria, and through the Khor al-Zubeir terminal on the Gulf, he added.

On crude, Ghadhban said Iraq has the capacity to produce 2.8 million bpd, including 700,000 bpd from the northern Kirkuk fields, but actual output depends on the condition of the refineries and the pipeline network.

The minister said he expected capacity to rise to three million bpd next year.

We can buy biodiesel locally but the bio part only makes up 5% of the mix .Is the govt tax cut different on bio products as opposed to oil? I somehow got the idea that it was and that accounted for the measly 5% when a vehicle could be run entirely on the bio product.

Should the US army be helping to patrol these pipelines ect:

Another bit of good news from the Economist


Iraq industry: Petrel homes in on Iraq oil deal

567 words
20 October 2004
Economist Intelligence Unit - ViewsWire
EIU ViewsWire
22
Number 301
English
(C) 2004 The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.

COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Petrel Resources, a small independent Irish oil company, is poised to win the first major oilfield development contract to be tendered by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil since the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime. The deal would be a reward for the persistence of Petrel's executives, who have calculated that smaller companies stand a good chance of picking up work in Iraq because of the reluctance of major oil firms to commit resources there owing to concerns about security and political uncertainty.

Petrel announced on September 27th that it had been called to Baghdad for "an urgent and direct discussion to finalise all technical and commercial matters" relating to a contract to develop the Khurmala Dome oilfield in the Kirkuk region. The contract entails installing production facilities for 120,000 barrels/day of oil and 80m cu ft/day of gas. Khurmala Dome is one of three schemes put out to tender by the oil ministry. Petrel has bid for all three. The others are Hamrin (north of Baghdad; 100,000 b/d) and Subba/Luhais, in the south (200,000 b/d).

The bid deadlines for the three contracts were put back several times earlier this year. However, the projects have made better progress since the formation of the interim Iraqi government at the end of June, with Thamer Ghadhban, one of Iraq's most experienced oil officials, appointed as minister.

Petrel's managing director, David Horgan, said that most of the discussions the company has held so far have been over the technical aspects of the projects, in particular the procurement of equipment such as valves and electric turbines. The commercial aspects have been left to the final stages. The contracts will be cash-based, although Petrel has offered to furnish financing on a risk-sharing basis. Petrel's primary interest is in oil exploration and production, and the company has made clear that it envisages these initial engineering, procurement and construction contracts as a means to establish a presence in the market with a view to deeper involvement in the future. Petrel holds an exploration concession in Iraq's western region, and is currently reviewing seismic data.

If Petrel is awarded the Khurmala Dome contract, it will spend the initial ten months or so completing designs and fabricating the necessary equipment outside Iraq. That means that substantial operations on site would not start until late 2005. The three contracts are expected to take about three years to complete.

Mr Ghadhban said at the recent OPEC meeting in Vienna that Iraq is currently producing 2.5m b/d. However, production is frequently interrupted by sabotage attacks on Iraq's oil pipeline infrastructure. A number of major oil companies have bid for a contract to review data on Iraq's two principal oil reservoirs, Kirkuk and Rumaila. However, this project will not entail doing substantial work in Iraq itself.

The award of the Khurmala Dome contract would signal that Iraq is on the way to increasing production in line with its substantial reserves (the third-largest in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Iran). However, it will still be some time before the extra barrels start to flow, even if security and political conditions improve.

SOURCE: Business Middle East

EIU ViewsWire 20 Oct 2004, Part 22 of 33

Document EIUCP00020041021e0ak00024

Dexter- sorry I can not find the addresses of Dome and Everasia, as I deleted a few things my bookmarks this morning, sorry, ask citywhispers think he has them

Tokyo

Tokyo: Good post taken from the Economist...tks. So let's suppose for a moment that PET is awarded a cash contract, with of course a clear indication that once they move forward on those, they will be in a strong position to be awarded more. What is the base value of cash deals to the SP...taking away sentiment...do I recall 90p per deal?

aldwickk: Re security. See earlier post, the Iraqi Oil Minisrty is taking it back in house, as the US Security Company they has been using to protect the pipes did not seem to be doing a very good job! A good sign, I think that they are starting to take control of these matters themselves!

Taken from another board, as one of the posters who regularly posts has just called Petrel....

"Just spoke with James Finn and David Horgan is still in the midle east...he sounded quite upbeat....!!!!"


my thoughts below

CW - James Finn is a senior member of Petrel, was he part of the team that went to Iraq I wonder, If so DH stayed behind? To sign the contracts????

Oh too much to wonder about......my head hurts..........

For those who don't know who James Finn is -

"James Finn has been the senior financial executive of a group of resource companies since 1988. He holds a degree in management and an accounting qualification. He also holds a main board directorship of Cooley Distillery, Minco and Pan Andean Resources."

It is looking more and more like PET have got at least one contract, can't waiti until they release that RNS!!!!!!


Tokyo

Tokyo,i know others have already said this but your input has been great,much appreciated.I have been amazed this week just how stable the price has been considering the hype that surrounds it.Feel optomistic but i certainly feel its a sink or swim share . when the outcomeis known there will not be any safe corners to hide in . Itll be champagne or cry in your beer time(if you can find a very cheap beer!)