The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

jimmy - thanks for the update ...... i agree that a major and sustained uptick in crude could be 12/18 months away, but if TLW's assets (and PMO's for that matter) are seen as good value at the current price, then one can but hope for a shark to feel hungry

Jefferies comment:
"This is the first major farm-in event to this acreage since 2 Sep 2010 when Tullow acquired its 50% stake in most of these licences from Africa Oil, paying back costs and a US $23.75m exploration carry. On 26 Mar 2012 the partners drilled the Ngamia-1 “significant light oil discovery” on Block 10BB. By Jan 2014, six further discoveries across Block BB & 13T led to “discovered resource to over 600mmb gross”. Today, we estimate 28 exploration & appraisal (E&A) wells (and 9 discoveries) in total have been completed in the Lokichar Development area with Pmean gross resource estimate still at 600mmb and (from TLW’s 1H15 results) “discussions underway with the Government regarding the submission of a plan of development in the South Lokichar basin at the end of 2015″
Maersk farm-in; Pre-FID, cash up front and a carry for up to $3.6/b. Upon deal completion Maersk Oil will pay US$350m cash (back costs) to AOI and carry AOI for up to US$90m for future exploration ($15m) & development ($75m) “upon confirmation of resources” (which we assume to be 600mmb gross 2C). We calculate up to US$440m for 150mmb of net contingent resources (25% MAERSKB WI), or US$2.9/b on a pre-FID (Final Investment Decision) basis. If we include Kenya Government back in of up 20% then the metric become US$3.6/b (US$440m for 120mmb net resources).
Upon FID, a further development carry gives “all-in” price of up to $7.0/b. In addition, upon FID (or project sanction) Maersk will also carry up to US$405m of Africa Oil’s working interest share of development expenditures. Hence on a post-FID (all-in) price (of US$845m) we calculate US$5.6/b for a 25% share (or $7.0/b if we include Kenya Gov backin, reducing Maersk (and AOI’s) Lokichar development working interest to 20%).
Pre-FID valuation read across is positive to our Kenya valuation +26p. We carry TLW’s stake in Kenya at US$5.2/b (unrisked), which we then risk and apply a 20% WI government back-in to reach a US$499m absolute valuation for its 40% WI. Applying a pre- FID $440m for 20%, grosses up to US$2.2bn and implies $880m for TLW’s existing stake or 61p/sh (vs. the 35p/sh we carry).
All-in price with development carry implies US$4.2bn gross for Kenya. Including the development carry, which assumes FID, implies an “unrisked” valuation for the Kenya development of US$4.2bn, which compares to our US$3.1bn gross valuation for Kenya based on US$5.2/b. On this unrisked basis, net to TLW’s share would imply 116p/sh vs. the 86p/sh we carry.
Positive deal to carried value but still work ahead to prove those assumptions.
It is positive for Kenya to farm-in a cash-paying partner. The valuation read across to our numbers is also positive, with +26p of “risked value” uplift to our TLW Kenya valuation of 35p implied by Maersk’s view of the development (pre-FID). Assuming the project moves forward to FID, under these farm-in assumptions the unrisked valuation read across is +30p/ sh higher than we carry for TLW (but risked/unrisked delta is actually broadly the same at ~50p/sh)."

Trading statement from TLW on wed 11th Nov.

Tullow Oil updates

StockMarketWire.com

Tullow Oil said its FY pretax operating cash flow before working capital is expected to be about USD1.0bn, and that its Major Simplification Project remains on track to deliver cost savings of $500 million over the next three years.

This was part of a trading update for the period 30 July to 11 November. Highlights are:

· West African average oil production year-to-date is in line with guidance. Full year average West African oil production now expected to be 66-67,000 bopd. Jubilee expected to average around 100,000 bopd gross in line with previous guidance.

· TEN development project in Ghana is around 75% complete and on schedule and on budget to deliver first oil in mid-2016

· RBL debt capacity remains unchanged at $3.7 billion following the routine bi-annual redetermination in September; 2015 year-end facility headroom and free cash expected to be around $1.7 billion and net debt around $4.2 billion

· Full Year 2015 pre-tax operating cash flow before working capital is expected to be around $1.0 billion; Major Simplification Project remains on track to deliver cost savings of $500 million over the next three years

· The Group's commodity hedge programme has a net positive mark to market value of approximately $450 million; 36,011 bopd of 2016 Group oil net entitlement volumes hedged with an average floor price protection of around $75.5/bbl

· Kenya and Uganda development plans progressing towards FID; South Lokichar appraisal activity close to completion with results to date in line with expectations, underpinning current resource estimates of around 600mmbo

· Kenya basin opening exploration drilling re-commenced with the spudding of Emesek-1 well (formerly Tausi) during October in the North Lokichar Basin; Cheptuket-1 well to spud in Q1 2016 following Etom-2 exploratory appraisal well

· Exploration prospect inventory being enhanced; successfully farming down for carries in our higher equity licences

· Full Year 2015 capex in line with current guidance at $1.9 billion; 2016 capex now expected to be approximately $1.2 billion

StockMarketWire.com
Tullow Oil said the Emesek-1 exploration well in Block 13T, northern Kenya, has reached a total depth of 3000 metres without encountering commercial hydrocarbons. It will be plugged and abandoned.

The PR Marriott 46 rig will move to the South Lokichar basin to drill the Etom-2 well which is expected to spud in late November.

Tullow operates Block 13T with 50% equity and is partnered by Africa Oil Corporation, also with 50%.

StockMarketWire.com
Cantor Fitzgerald has downgraded its recommendation on Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) to sell from hold, stating that the share price rally following Maersk's acquisition of Africa Oil's Kenyan blocks was premature.

The broker also added: "Despite a challenging 12 months for the company, production remains within guidance at c.66,000bopd, and the TEN project in Ghana is now 75% complete with company forecasts still pointing to first oil mid next year.

"Nevertheless, we still have concerns regarding the company's leverage position, which we believe is a key factor in the company announcing that it will further curtail capex in 2016."

Analysts have increased their target price to 176 pence a share (from 168 pence), implying 14 per cent potential downside.

News Release http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5174844

Up going on for 7% in early trading.

up 70% would be more interesting :-)

- By Motley Fool | Tue, 15th December 2015

Tullow Oil

Tullow shares rose by 7% this morning, after the highly-regarded explorer announced a positive set of drilling results from the South Lokichar Basin in Kenya.

The firm said that the Etom-2 well in the South Lokichar Basin had found "102 metres of net oil pay in two columns". The oil was described as high quality. The Etom-2 well was drilled using data gathered with 3D seismic after the Etom-1 well came up dry. This suggests to me that Tullow's understanding of the local geology has improved, and that further discoveries could follow.

Tullow believes that the South Lokichar Basin could contain estimated mean gross resources of 600m barrels of oil. Following today's news, the firm says it will evaluate further drilling opportunities in the Etom area.

Shares in Tullow Oil have fallen by 61% so far this year and are currently at 10-year lows. The firm's $3.6bn net debt continues to concern me but today's discovery is a reminder of how Tullow has discovered very significant assets in the past, and could quite easily do so again.

I'm not sure I'd rush to buy into Tullow today, but I think it's definitely a stock to watch.

RBC Capital Markets today upgrades its investment rating on Tullow Oil PLC (LON:TLW) to outperform (from sector performer) and cut its price target to 260p (from 400p).

Barclays Capital today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Tullow Oil PLC (LON:TLW) and cut its price target to 300p (from 330p).

Same as PMO , i wouldn't touch these small oilers at the moment ..

Market cap of £1,265m I wouldn't call TLW small, but I agree they are not a good investment at mo.

Still think they will fall to 100p.

so have you gone short to back mouth with money?
if so, i hope it was at a much higher price than currently

Trading statement http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5191833

A new low.

Irish listing notice http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5204983

9.2% declared short interest doesn't bode well for the short term.

StockMarketWire.com
Tullow Oil has narrowed its FY pretax loss from continuing activities to USD1.3bn, from a loss of USD2.0bn. Sales revenue totalled USD1.6bn, from USD2.2bn. It recommended that no dividend be paid.

CEO Aidan Heavey said:
"Today's results demonstrate that Tullow adjusted well to low oil prices in 2015. We secured current and future cash flow through good operational delivery in West Africa, continued to build our resource base in East Africa, significantly cut costs across the Group and benefitted from our strong hedging position.

"Our challenge in 2016 is to be equally robust in responding to the uncertainties that remain in the sector.

"In the year ahead, we have three key priorities: ensuring continued low cost production from West Africa - including the start-up of production from TEN between July and August 2016; driving further reductions in operating costs and capital expenditure; and focusing on deleveraging the balance sheet through free cash flow generation and strategic portfolio management.

"As we look ahead, we have a portfolio of world class, low cost oil assets which will produce around 100,000 bopd in 2017 and a major position in one of the world's newest, low cost, oil provinces in East Africa, both enabling us to create substantial value."

HIGHLIGHTS:
* Revenues down 27% on previous year; write-offs and impairment charges also impacted by the oil price decline, resulting in a loss after tax of $1.0 billion. Strong operating cash flow generation of $1.0 billion from stable production.

* Year-end 2015 net debt of $4.0 billion with significant facility headroom and free cash of $1.9 billion. RBL and RCF capacity increased by $450 million in March 2015; banking discussions with regard to March 2016 re-determination have begun.

* Mark-to-market value of oil hedges at 31 January 2016 of $668 million with 52% of 2016 entitlement oil production hedged at average floor price of around $75/bbl on a pre-tax basis (64% hedged on a post-tax basis); material 2017 hedging in place.

* Major Simplification Project completed resulting in improved organisational structure, efficient processes and reduced headcount of 37%; on track to deliver cash savings of around $500 million over three year period.

* Low cost per barrel oil production at Jubilee and the West Africa non-operated portfolio with 2015 opex at $10.0/bbl and $15.0/bbl respectively; cost savings and synergies from Jubilee and TEN in Ghana to achieve around $8/bbl opex in 2018.

* 2015 capex of $1.7 billion; $1.1 billion forecast for 2016 with work ongoing to potentially reduce to $0.9 billion; ability to reduce Group annual capex to c.$0.3 billion from 2017 onwards if the low oil price persists.

* West Africa working interest oil production averaged 66,600 bopd in 2015; production guidance in 2016 for the region is 73-80,000 bopd. TEN Project over 85% complete and on track and on budget for first oil between July and August 2016.

* Successful Kenya appraisal programme underpins estimated gross recoverable resource guidance of 600mmbo.