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PTH

he went off 1.02 in the first round and never got any bigger lol

Agree anything can happen but this guy is a machine - i tend to watch his matches and if he gets out towards 1.5 then i look to back him

Steve, thanks for that, but you just never know. Small risk for a lot of potential upside. I doubt very much he will get beaten, but a bit of movement in the odds would be nice!

PTH

if you can lay of at 1.2/1.3 then its a cracking trade - good luck

trading profit onto World Wide Web in the Welsh National

PTH

is the game this evening?

think its at 9 O'clock tonight, assuming they stick to the time table

thanks pth

world wide web beaten after 1 circuit

An interesting discussion on the forum:

Quito 27 Dec 15:12

Worth noting that Bridgewater Boys has failed to place on the four previous occasions it has been 3/1 or shorter.

8to1RiverKeen 27 Dec 15:13

are you implying that the game is bent quito?

Quito 27 Dec 15:13

The horse doesnt know his price River Keen. The farrier and the tack man may do however.

I subsequently laid at 2.58 and greened at 3.6 :-)

And surprisingly the horse was never even put in the race - connections excuse likely to be that it didnt go in the snow lol

u green PTH ?

took the dogs out and missed my opportunity doh!

Evening All,

Just been watching the darts. Jeez...Those leg odds sure do move!

Hi all, another question for betangle users.
I backed Australia in the cricket last night at 3.3 for 5, i then layed 2 at 2.0
and a little later put in to lay 3 at 1.9 but only got matched on 2. The book
is showing Australia +6.8
Sth Africa 0.0
The Draw 0.0
The question is how do i close the last 1 back bet as the min. is 2 and how will that affect the profit /loss?

Cloudbase

Firstly, well done on your position. You've made a good call on Aus as they're in a strong position.

Secondly, you won't be able to close out on 1 as you correctly pointed out that the min bet is 2. Then again, there's no need to as you have no liability on SA or the Draw.

If you think that Aus will go on to win then you'll collect 6.80 but if they don't you lose nothing so effectively your trading has given you a free bet on Aus (great isn't it!!).

However, if you want to green up you can lay Aus at 1.59 with your 6.8 to pick up 4.27 on all 3 outcomes (even better!).

Happy trading!!

bakko, thanks,knew there would be a simple explanation, all part of the learning curve.
On the longer time frame bets ie cricket, what do most people tend to do in a situation like this?
Watch and look for a better greening up price, or partial green up to cover your stake and watch or
keep trading the line and green up later? Guess it depends on what your comfortable with.

Cloudbase

I trade the cricket quite a lot (increasing all the time as im finding it very profitable) - i lasted till tea last night (4am ish) and will be up again tonight.

Personally if I have backed a side at 3.3 and they have shortened to 1.5 ish then to me there is enough profit it to take it and green up. If the price then drifts out again i would be likely to go back in again (as an example - I backed the aussies 4 times and laid off again last night!) In the event i am backing the fielding side i nearly always lay off immediately (due to the price over reaction) and back back either 5 mins later if i wanted to keep the position running or leave it 15-30 mins till the price gets to my target level (as it kept doing last night)

With regard to test matches, at all times I try and price up what i think the draw should be and then calculate from that the prices i think fair for the 2 sides. I then look as to what potential scenarios could happen over the next hour, session and day and the risk reward for those scenarios. The combination of an event i think likely to happen and the price being value is when i look to trade. I also try and have in my mind the max range of prices for the next hour (ie what will the prices be if the batting side lose no wickets or if they lose 3 or 4)

I also look for scenarios where there is effectively a free bet. For example, in this test the Aus price shouldnt go below 1.4 before the saffers bat (except in the unlikely scenario that Ponting makes an aggressive declaration). If when the Aussies are batting, they go as low as that I will be laying them. If they lose a couple of wickets there price may lengthen, if they bat on too long their price will lengthen and it will not shorten until they take the first wicket (by which stage i will have traded out)

hope this helps, feel free to ask as many questions as you want

Anyone on the footie tonite?

less than 10 mins gone and Arsenal and Man Utd already 1-0 up

Evening Steve

Had a quick look at the darts so missed out on start of the footie.

Movements on darts are far too fierce for my liking so think I'll stick to the footie tonight!

Fundy.........Many thanks for a very informative post, its much appreciated.
I noticed last night how the price over reacted when they took the first wicket,
my lack of knowledge let me give several ticks back before laying and the cricinfo
.com site has a fairly long delay so wasn't sure what had happened.
I guess the
stratergies you describe like pricing up the draw and identifying value come with
many hours studying many matches, building yourself a database of knowledge to identify the "what should happen next" scenario, i'm looking forward to building this up over the coming month's
It took me 5yrs to learn the futures market so i have no illusions about the time it can take.
Anyway back to the match, will be on it tonight but only to lunch as i have to be up at 6.30, catch you later.

Cloudbase

as yet, my view on prices are still "gut feel" though i have just started to log some prices. That said, i played cricket at all levels upto county seconds so have a fairly good understanding of the game

as for cricinfo.com it is poor for updates, cricbuzz.com is usually better, though if it is a crucial game and you need uptodate scores the best place is one of the spreadbet sites - i usually have IG Index open as as well as the scores, the runs spread can assist in pricing up the game (i also use it as a hedging tool sometimes)