cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
halifax
- 03 Nov 2011 15:46
- 7378 of 21973
rf your "back of the envelope" numbers are incorrect like those of most journos.
required field
- 03 Nov 2011 18:32
- 7379 of 21973
Perhaps....Jonuk76 seems to know a lot about it.....whatever the case Greece is in a real mess....
jonuk76
- 04 Nov 2011 03:55
- 7380 of 21973
Don't really know a lot about it, but a look at the figures shows their debt is not in the trillions. As a percent of GDP it's certainly high though. With a deficit running at 10.5% of GDP, and the normal sources of credit no longer available (26% 10 year bond yields and rising..), they are just going to need bailing out over and over again.
The main problem is that their economy is uncompetitive, and they have been living well beyond their means. About 40% of workers in Greece are employed by the government, so the harsh austerity they are being forced to impose is having a huge effect, and will continue to cause their economy to shrink. There is no quick fix to the problem, I think.
I do think the situation is different between Italy and Greece. Italy at least has a more varied economy, less reliant on government employment, and they probably stand a better chance of growing their way out of it than Greece. They are implementing austerity measures to reduce the deficit, and asset sales could reduce the overall debt level. The Italian problem is that the numbers involved are much bigger than Greece and they are 'too big to save' if it goes pear shaped...
dreamcatcher
- 06 Nov 2011 20:08
- 7381 of 21973
dc, Is this week going to be Italy week. I think the attention will turn from Greece to
Italy.Italy is going to rapidly rise on investor radar screens and may be the bigger story."
Markets abandoning hopes for lasting euro zone solution
Steven C. Johnson, 19:48, Sunday 6 November 2011
NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) (Reuters) - After another week of confusion and turmoil in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) , investors are ditching whatever hopes they once had for a conclusive solution to the debt crisis.
That may foreshadow a gloomy holiday season in markets, especially if wary investors opt to reduce risk in their portfolios and take refuge in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.
Just weeks after it seemed leaders had drafted a master plan to solve the crisis, doubts rose about whether Greece would back a 130 billion-euro bailout.
And as politicians in Athens struggled to form a consensus government, Italian bond yields spiked to a euro-era high of 6.4 percent, raising fears that the country may soon need to follow Greece and others in seeking an emergency bailout.
"At the end of the day, it does seem like a grand plan is elusive at best," said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.
"We've seen one European bank and one U.S. brokerage fail. We know there are strains for French banks. We're wondering how long it will be before Greek default worries spread to Italy and Spain," he said. "In a situation like that, money managers are going to decide to simply take their risk down."
Investors are betting the market will see evidence of that as soon as this week, as flight-to-safety flows help boost U.S. Treasury debt, lift the dollar against the euro and weigh on stock markets around the world.
The biggest fear is that a disorderly default in Greece or elsewhere would ripple across the global financial market the same way the Lehman Brothers collapse did in 2008. That, investors fear, would probably be enough to plunge the global economy into recession.
"This is going to be pretty negative news for risk markets," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "We are going to see a continued flight-to-quality tomorrow."
Benchmark U.S. 10-year note yields dropped more than 29 basis points in the past week and a half as worries about Europe overshadowed signs of economic improvement in America.
FADING RISK RALLIES
Ashraf Laidi, CEO of Intermarket Strategy in London, said he expected the euro to struggle again this week after losing nearly 3 percent against the dollar last week. By year end, he said it could fall below $1.30. It was around $1.38 Friday.
"This past week really raised some tricky questions," he said. "For the first time I can remember, the possibility that Greece really could leave the euro zone was being talked about in cafes and bars as well as on trading desks."
If Greece can cobble together a new unity government that backs the EU rescue plan, that might, "at least for a while, be a market-stabilizing factor," said Citigroup (NYSE: C - news) currency strategist Greg Anderson.
Prime Minister George Papandreou suggested Sunday he was ready to pass the baton.
But that is not likely to cheer investors much, meaning any rally in stocks or the euro will be shallow and brief.
"These 24-hour risk-on rallies, I don't know how much longer people are going to be willing to do that," said Ader. "Sell-offs are getting deeper because the rallies are only short-covering moves. People are not getting long and putting on bets that everything is suddenly OK."
FROM GREECE TO ITALY
Alan Ruskin, head of G10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank (Xetra: 514000 - news) in New York, said the focus is likely to shift from Greece to Italy fairly quickly in the weeks ahead, and that should mean more market volatility and unwillingness to take on risk.
Italy's debt-to-output ratio stands at 120 percent, second only to Greece in the 17-country euro zone, and its borrowing costs are rising.
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi recently refused a loan offer by the International Monetary Fund and his government may be on the verge of collapse.
"Berlusconi says Italians are not feeling the crisis but that's because the European Central Bank has been providing high levels of liquidity at low interest rates and buying Italian bonds," Ruskin said. "That begs the question, should the ECB stop that to show them this is really a crisis?"
"I have to believe a lot of investors like me are thinking this could be the start of Italy week," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "Italy is going to rapidly rise on investor radar screens and may be the bigger story."
gibby
- 06 Nov 2011 20:46
- 7382 of 21973
fantastic news - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.....
6 November 2011 Last updated at 20:32 Share this pageEmail Print Share this page
Beleaguered Prime Minister George Papandreou has agreed that he will not lead the coalition, the statement said.
He and main opposition leader Antonis Samaras attended the talks, hosted by President Karolos Papoulias.
More talks will take place in the morning to decide who will lead the coalition.
Once the new leader has been named, the president will invite all parties to join the national unity government, the statement said.
The announcement follows a week of political turmoil over Greece's debt crisis....................... et cetera
roll on tomorrow.................
cynic
- 07 Nov 2011 08:55
- 7383 of 21973
shows what i know .... i thought market would open a bit higher rather than nastily down
skinny
- 07 Nov 2011 08:58
- 7384 of 21973
This isn't helping -
Italy government borrowing rates hit euro-era high
The cost of Italian borrowing has risen in early trading as fears grow over political uncertainties in Rome.
The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose from 6.37% to a euro-era high of 6.66%.
HARRYCAT
- 07 Nov 2011 09:01
- 7385 of 21973
So did I. Looks like I overlooked Italy's influence on market sentiment.
Proselenes
- 07 Nov 2011 11:53
- 7386 of 21973
An e-petition that has been raised by private investor champion David O'Hara to try and get AIM investments eligible for ISAs. If they get enough votes, the government is forced to review the situation.
I urge everyone to take 2 seconds to add your name to this government petition.
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/16111
.
HARRYCAT
- 07 Nov 2011 11:57
- 7387 of 21973
There are enough stocks out there which are low or medium risk which can generate a good income without adding high risk AIM stocks. Am happy with the current arrangement.
Interestingly Mr P, 'Proselenes' has it's origins in Hellenic mythology, so I assume by trying to avoid paying tax, you are trying to take us down the greek path?
cynic
- 07 Nov 2011 12:11
- 7388 of 21973
nonsense; the gov't will not be forced to do anything of the sort
gibby
- 07 Nov 2011 12:29
- 7389 of 21973
i wouldnt worry lol - yet more good news - alleged sex pest, letch and perv set to resign...
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/italian-prime-minister-silvio-berlusconi--to-resign-.html
skinny
- 07 Nov 2011 12:38
- 7390 of 21973
Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi posts on his Facebook page 'rumours of my resignation are groundless'.
HARRYCAT
- 07 Nov 2011 12:50
- 7391 of 21973
Similar to 'rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated'.
gibby
- 07 Nov 2011 12:56
- 7392 of 21973
lol reminds me of that chap recently who was jailed for fraud - fled to aus i think but they got him in the end - did you see that the other day and how they caught him - his finger prints were found on the death certificate he paid for LOL LOL LOL he must be a real professional!!! yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
gibby
- 07 Nov 2011 12:56
- 7393 of 21973
lol reminds me of that chap recently who was jailed for fraud - fled to aus i think but they got him in the end - did you see that the other day and how they caught him - his finger prints were found on the death certificate he paid for LOL LOL LOL he must be a real professional!!! yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
gibby
- 07 Nov 2011 12:57
- 7394 of 21973
i.e. it was supposedly HIS death certificate!!!
jonuk76
- 07 Nov 2011 13:25
- 7395 of 21973
In most jobs they'd give you the boot if you spent all day writing on Facebook...
skinny
- 07 Nov 2011 14:05
- 7396 of 21973
Italy's prime minister has dismissed rumours that he was about to step down as interest rates on government debt jumped.
Silvio Berlusconi, who faces a crucial vote on Tuesday, said the reports were "unfounded".
His interior minister said the PM now lacked the majority to pass urgent economic reforms demanded by the EU.
Fear that the eurozone crisis could engulf Italy persists, with Italian 10-year bonds rising to a euro-era high.
Italy agreed a limited package of budget reforms last week.
Facebook denial
But the Italian cabinet failed to agree to issue a decree implementing the changes. Mr Berlusconi now faces what is being seen as a confidence vote in parliament on Tuesday.
skinny
- 07 Nov 2011 15:51
- 7397 of 21973
NXT new 12 moth high (again) today - amazing.